October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

Very interested in next Spring/Summer, too. Following the 2010/11 analog would place us on track for a new go at a 2011 warm season. 2022 serves as a reminder that we can still get quite chilly during the Spring, and this last August and June both brought troughing, that while admittedly pathetic by the standards of our long term climate, still allowed for some of the best summertime marine influence since the early twenty-tweens, especially into September.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

That connection doesn’t exist. It’s a combination of cherrypicking, misattribution, and flawed/anecdotal recollection.

The whole thing is basically a religious belief held by a couple of individuals on this forum. The whole premise collapses once you get beyond simple, linear, one-to-one correlations.

For reference, some of the driest niña-leaning autumns were 2022, 2008, and 1988. All were very dry in October, and all were followed by significant winters in the PNW.

I think ur gettin trolololol'd friend

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully lots of airmasses like that of December, 2013 repeatedly.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I've got a feeling about this winter. There's a buzz to the air and I think we're going to see something we haven't experienced in several decades, especially south of the border. The analogs mentioned this Fall have compiled nothing short of a list of BANGERS, including 1988-89, 1972-73, and at the top of the list an underrated near-masterpiece of a winter in 2010-11. The latter of the three in particular stands out to me, since it was only a few adjustments in January away from being an all-timer, and it was also a -ENSO/+QBO year, coming off an El Niño, at the tail end of a +PDO phase. Not to mention its comparative recency. I think another go-around will fare very well for us.

I could see that coming to fruition in the PNW region. First year niña/+QBO is hard to bet against.

Don’t think it’ll be special in the cold/snow department out here. Though I do expect some severe wind events this winter/spring.

[Meatyorologist]

19 minutes ago, Phil said:

I could see that coming to fruition in the PNW region. First year niña/+QBO is hard to bet against.

Don’t think it’ll be special in the cold/snow department out here. Though I do expect some severe wind events this winter/spring.

Maybe it's the vitamin D kicking in. Or maybe I'm crazy. But I have a feeling there will be a huge reversal in the observed weather after mid November. More specifically, the sustained blocking patterns in the midlatitudes observed this Fall and all year will shift back into a favorable position for a prolonged bout once again, perhaps for weeks on end. And it will repeat multiple times. Mark my words. It's coming. Hark

[Gradient Keeper]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Don't think I've said it yet.. Welcome back Rob! glad to lease ya for another winter

Thanks! I hope we have plenty of active weather this fall and several arctic air masses this winter.

[Meatyorologist]

00z GEFS extended frames show a classic Niña pattern progression this Fall, with +EPO slop to reign in Spooky Szn, followed by what appears to be the embryotic stages of our eventual DJF blocking high, in the form of a raging +PNA pattern over the Pacific dumping a ridge right overhead. Rotting jackolanterns might FREEZE under a healthy inversion pattern, interspersed with heavy bouts of Hawaiian import and crazy GFS long range-icaines promising to gourge a chasm straight through the Olympic mountains and forcefully redirect the Columbia river to the north of Mt Rainier. Perhaps one may even verify...

After that, the gameplan is simple, we've seen it play out a million times during La Niña. 1988-89, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2016-17 (fuk u fil), and 2021-22 are all the recent La Niña's that featured a warm November ridging pattern retrograde into an Aleutian blocking high dominant winter regime. This is a real correlation we've discussed on the forums, and as Phil has clarified, it's due to La Niña's relationship with the MJO. Their interactions in November produce ridging overhead, but that relationship gradually becomes more favorable for sending Arctic air south as the winter progresses. It's really encouraging to see that exact signal this early, among the zany climate model outputs for DJFM.

The only wrench in this idea is the fact that; especially if the NAO doesn't cooperate during November; we probably won't have much of a reservoir of cold air to tap into come the time good blocking finally arrives. We'll either have to smuggle a polar lobe from Siberia into the northwestern corner of the continent, or marinate our own as the sun sets over northern Canada and Alaska.

*of course mother nature has her own plans. i'm just going by the frequency of la niña cold seasons that have followed this progression. which is actually shocking in recent times. Pretty much every La Niña since 2008; and you could easily shimmy in 2022-23 into the end of that list I mentioned earlier, if you're okay with the crazy cold anomaly provided by all the ridging going into lengthy inversions, and some timely NW clippers.

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Thanks! I hope we have plenty of active weather this fall and several arctic air masses this winter.

i'm VERY ON BOARD.. see paragraph pukage above

[SilverFallsAndrew]

8 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The pattern gets absolutely dreadful during week two on the GFS.  The best possible outcome would be an inversion and fog if it verifies.  

Too early for significant inversions. This is deja vu from 2022. Ended up hitting 90 in the willamette valley. 

[the_convergence_zone]

25 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too early for significant inversions. This is deja vu from 2022. Ended up hitting 90 in the willamette valley. 

The problem in 2022 was that it wasn’t wet enough. 

[MossMan]

The front came in with a fury about an hour ish ago! Wind hit the house then the power surged causing the electronics to beep and sing which was my noise sensitive dog to go into “the world is ending” mode…First little fall storm of the season! Currently raining quite hard now. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

00z GEFS extended frames show a classic Niña pattern progression this Fall, with +EPO slop to reign in Spooky Szn, followed by what appears to be the embryotic stages of our eventual DJF blocking high, in the form of a raging +PNA pattern over the Pacific dumping a ridge right overhead. Rotting jackolanterns might FREEZE under a healthy inversion pattern, interspersed with heavy bouts of Hawaiian import and crazy GFS long range-icaines promising to gourge a chasm straight through the Olympic mountains and forcefully redirect the Columbia river to the north of Mt Rainier. Perhaps one may even verify...

After that, the gameplan is simple, we've seen it play out a million times during La Niña. 1988-89, 2008-09, 2010-11, 2016-17 (*** u fil), and 2021-22 are all the recent La Niña's that featured a warm November ridging pattern retrograde into an Aleutian blocking high dominant winter regime. This is a real correlation we've discussed on the forums, and as Phil has clarified, it's due to La Niña's relationship with the MJO. Their interactions in November produce ridging overhead, but that relationship gradually becomes more favorable for sending Arctic air south as the winter progresses. It's really encouraging to see that exact signal this early, among the zany climate model outputs for DJFM.

The only wrench in this idea is the fact that; especially if the NAO doesn't cooperate during November; we probably won't have much of a reservoir of cold air to tap into come the time good blocking finally arrives. We'll either have to smuggle a polar lobe from Siberia into the northwestern corner of the continent, or marinate our own as the sun sets over northern Canada and Alaska.

*of course mother nature has her own plans. i'm just going by the frequency of la niña cold seasons that have followed this progression. which is actually shocking in recent times. Pretty much every La Niña since 2008; and you could easily shimmy in 2022-23 into the end of that list I mentioned earlier, if you're okay with the crazy cold anomaly provided by all the ridging going into lengthy inversions, and some timely NW clippers.

Yeah I agree, the current regime even is not cause for concern in regards to winter. 

[RentonHill]

37 and rainy here in Houston

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, RentonHill said:

37 and rainy here in Houston

37C?

[the_convergence_zone]

Moderate rain and 52 

[Anti Marine Layer]

11 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

37 and rainy here in Houston

Texas?

[Phishy Wx]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The front came in with a fury about an hour ish ago! Wind hit the house then the power surged causing the electronics to beep and sing which was my noise sensitive dog to go into “the world is ending” mode…First little fall storm of the season! Currently raining quite hard now. 

[Phishy Wx]

21 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

37C?

37K, freezing

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clear skies this morning. 

[RentonHill]

17 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Texas?

[TT-SEA]

38 minutes ago, MossMan said:

The front came in with a fury about an hour ish ago! Wind hit the house then the power surged causing the electronics to beep and sing which was my noise sensitive dog to go into “the world is ending” mode…First little fall storm of the season! Currently raining quite hard now. 

Hasn't arrived here yet.   But there was almost a surreal redish light out there a few minutes ago as the sun came up.  Will be raining very soon. 

[MossMan]

Up to .20” now! 
48 degrees. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Moderate rain. 0.42" so far. 50˚F.

[Slushy Inch]

Cfs Jan. Euro season still not out. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Slushy Inch said:

Cfs Jan. Euro season still not out.

Let's lock this in.

[Slushy Inch]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Let's lock this in.

Best signal yet.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Hasn't arrived here yet.   But there was almost a surreal redish light out there a few minutes ago as the sun came up.  Will be raining very soon. 

Raining pretty good here.  The sun was still shining when the rain started.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Moderate rain. 0.42" so far. 50˚F.

.22 in 15 mins is pretty impressive.

[snow_wizard]

It managed to drop to 42 here before the rain started.  MTD average min is pretty impressive!

[Timmy]

It’s nice to be getting rain again. Grass is still very crispy in most places. They still haven’t been able to start burn season, usually October 1st. Looks like it won’t be able to start for a couple more weeks still.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Well my station currently isn't working, I'll try to fix it but I think it's time to blow a couple hundred on a new one. This one lasted a while.

29 currently on the neighbors station, low of 23. Really neat view on the bachelor webcam right now

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

i'm VERY ON BOARD.. see paragraph pukage above

Glad to see you so excited about this winter.  Good reasons to be so.

[TT-SEA]

Despite the stormy morning... looks like it will be mostly sunny by mid afternoon across the Seattle area.

[the_convergence_zone]

Finally a rain event on the higher end of guidance thanks to some convective elements embedded in that front. It was really coming down around 7:30.

0.44" so far, should end up just north of a half inch. 

[Slushy Inch]

22 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Despite the stormy morning... looks like it will be mostly sunny by mid afternoon across the Seattle area.

Perfect. The extra days of sun have been really nice.

[the_convergence_zone]

23 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Despite the stormy morning... looks like it will be mostly sunny by mid afternoon across the Seattle area.

Gotta clear out for that high-end aurora potential tonight and tomorrow night. 

[snow_wizard]

25 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Despite the stormy morning... looks like it will be mostly sunny by mid afternoon across the Seattle area.

I like these classic cold fronts.  Clear, cloudy, clear in 12 to 18 hours.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Gotta clear out for that high-end aurora potential tonight and tomorrow night. 

And the all important sub 40 lows!  Some places could pull off an average min below 40 for the first week of the month.  Not that easy to do this early.

[snow_wizard]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Too early for significant inversions. This is deja vu from 2022. Ended up hitting 90 in the willamette valley. 

Up here it can do it this early if the ridge sets up in just the right way.

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

I like these classic cold fronts.  Clear, cloudy, clear in 12 to 18 hours.

I remember being so confused when I first moved here and the weather didn't clear immediately after the cold front was through.