October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[SilverFallsAndrew]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z GFS is little better than the 12z.  A bit better chance for decent below normal temps in lowlands on some days.

I approve.

[Dan the Weatherman]

41 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

This photo was taken in January 1949 right down the hill from where I lived in the LA foothills for 28 years. How I wish I could have been there then! It never snowed in the 28 years I lived there (1992-2020), although it did graupel a couple of times.

I have lived in Orange County my entire life and have not ever seen it snow in my backyard, and my weather memories go back to the early 1980's.

Edited October 28 by Dan the Weatherman

[TigerWoodsLibido]

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He flew to Bucks County, PA to knock on donors for the VP.

Is this like political stuff? I try to just live under a rock when it comes to that shitt. It's depressing and I'm gonna ignore it. Gonna be playing video games and looking at the weather models a week from tomorrow, ignoring any news.

[ShawniganLake]

I think some on here might see our first freeze late this week.   

[SouthHillFrosty]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

I think some on here might see our first freeze late this week.   

Post maps for our blue collar ppl pls

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Unfortunate.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Lots of mountain snow tho.

[Deweydog]

THUNDER

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

-ENSO/+QBO augments off-equator NPAC convection and maximizes the broadening of the Hadley Cell. This forces ridging/subsidence over the SW US and aids in the amplification of the NPAC High during boreal winter (hence colder/blockier PNW winters).

The warm/dry autumn in the SW US has no meaning by itself. It’s a symptom of climate variables we’re already taking into account.

Yeah, not saying it's a driver or anything but certainly fits.

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

THUNDER

Ah ah ah ah ah ah ah ahhh

 

[T-Town]

We’ve had some decent cells come through here the past two days but not one bolt of lightning detected by my weather station. So im subtracting one star from my Yelp review. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Nice steady rainfall for right now. 51F.

[MossMan]

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think some on here might see our first freeze late this week.   

You might need to invite Jim up for a sleepover. 

[SnowWillarrive]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is unlikely. Aerosol concentrations increased significantly throughout the climate warming regime from 1860s-1940s, which saw > 30% of the observed sea level rise to-date.

Why would cooling suddenly initiate right as CO^2 emissions began taking off after WWII? The positive radiative forcing from CO^2 between the 1940s-70s exceeded the negative radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols over the same time period by at least 250%.

The underlying problem is that we are unable to simulate or hindcast unforced climate variability, and are left trying to explain every decade to decade wobble in global temperatures via some form of human intervention (or simple radiative forcings from TSI/vulcanism/etc). Yet somehow sea levels manage to rise/fall 500+ feet without any meaningful change in solar output or GHG concentrations. The (annoying) truth is staring us down while we bury our heads in the sand in avoidance.

[Tyler Mode]

Had some heavy showers and a little thunder here.

[Tyler Mode]

Some nice cloud structure with the storms too, and a waterspout on the Columbia near Longview...

[Blizzard777]

5 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

It's not coming

All things will commence after this special moment takes place including Christmas music on the radio ! 

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is unlikely. Aerosol concentrations increased significantly throughout the climate warming regime from 1860s-1940s, which saw > 30% of the observed sea level rise to-date.

Why would cooling suddenly initiate right as CO^2 emissions began taking off after WWII? The positive radiative forcing from CO^2 between the 1940s-70s exceeded the negative radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols over the same time period by at least 250%.

The underlying problem is that we are unable to simulate or hindcast unforced climate variability, and are left trying to explain every decade to decade wobble in global temperatures via some form of human intervention (or simple radiative forcings from TSI/vulcanism/etc). Yet somehow sea levels manage to rise/fall 500+ feet without any meaningful change in solar output or GHG concentrations. The (annoying) truth is staring us down while we bury our heads in the sand in avoidance.

Pretty much this. There's this default line of thinking now to try to explain climate variability mainly through human influence - without really understanding what has caused a lot of the significant climate change in the past. 

Doesn't mean current climate science is totally wrong or GHG warming isn’t real, of course. Just very incomplete. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

After the Halloween storm, seems like there'll be enough snow for skiing!

[Tenochtitlan]

I’m crossing the Willamette on the light rail and the cell to the south is quite impressive looking.

Actually so is the cell to the north. Each window of the train has an amazing view of clouds!

[Rubus Leucodermis]

16 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

After the Halloween storm, seems like there'll be enough snow for skiing!

And then it will torch and all melt.

[Tenochtitlan]

[Tenochtitlan]

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

You might need to invite Jim up for a sleepover. 

Haha.  He would like the climate here so much more than where he lives now 

[Cold Snap]

Just saw lighting while on the way to Monroe.

[bainbridgekid]

Never seen a shower this heavy appear out of nowhere here before. Absolutely pouring here from nothing on the radar 20 minutes ago. 

[RentonHill]

Bored

[Tenochtitlan]

Believe it or not, I didn’t use any filters in those cloud pictures…they were that orange! Honestly those were some of the coolest clouds I’ve ever seen. The funny thing is that my area completely missed any actual rain this afternoon, other than a light sprinkle.

[Ken in Wood Village]

I like the 46 day PNA 🌨🌧

[AlTahoe]

First sticking snow of the year!

[DareDuck]

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And then it will torch and all melt.

It would be an AR event to ruin an early opening. The side of the resort with lifts doesn’t see much daylight this time of the year. 

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, AlTahoe said:

First sticking snow of the year!

Nice! You were the lucky one today, couldn't manage any snow here. Atleast we got some a couple weeks ago

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

15 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

It would be an AR event to ruin an early opening. The side of the resort with lifts doesn’t see much daylight this time of the year. 

Yep. So far not seeing a sign of that on models, just a bunch of snow

[MossMan]

I have a great feeling about November. 
Anyway, .06” on the day, 6.06” for the month. 

[snow_wizard]

4 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Some nice cloud structure with the storms too, and a waterspout on the Columbia near Longview...

Pretty cool how you can see the water being disturbed by the waterspout.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I like the 46 day PNA 🌨🌧

Perturbed members.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a great feeling about November. 
Anyway, .06” on the day, 6.06” for the month. 

I'm not seeing it, but who knows.

[snow_wizard]

Just totally sucks when you're in a cold trough and can't even get below normal temps out of it.

[snow_wizard]

These awful GFS runs are pretty discouraging.  Hopefully the ECMWF suite of models is more on point.

On the ECMWF weeklies I will say the -EPO -PNA combo by mid November is interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Mark Nelsen says the weekend looks dry, but that's not what the GFS says.