Jump to content

October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


Recommended Posts

18z GFS is little better than the 12z.  A bit better chance for decent below normal temps in the lowlands on some days.

  • Like 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

What did I miss?

He flew to Bucks County, PA to knock on donors for the VP.

  • lol 3
  • scream 1
  • Spam 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

18z GFS is little better than the 12z.  A bit better chance for decent below normal temps in lowlands on some days.

I approve.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

41 minutes ago, Eugene-5SW said:

This photo was taken in January 1949 right down the hill from where I lived in the LA foothills for 28 years. How I wish I could have been there then! It never snowed in the 28 years I lived there (1992-2020), although it did graupel a couple of times.

1949 snow.jpg

I have lived in Orange County my entire life and have not ever seen it snow in my backyard, and my weather memories go back to the early 1980's.

Edited by Dan the Weatherman
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

He flew to Bucks County, PA to knock on donors for the VP.

Is this like political stuff? I try to just live under a rock when it comes to that shitt. It's depressing and I'm gonna ignore it. Gonna be playing video games and looking at the weather models a week from tomorrow, ignoring any news.

  • Like 6

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunate.

1.png

  • Like 1
  • Death Ridge 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Lots of mountain snow tho.

1.png

  • Like 6

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Phil said:

-ENSO/+QBO augments off-equator NPAC convection and maximizes the broadening of the Hadley Cell. This forces ridging/subsidence over the SW US and aids in the amplification of the NPAC High during boreal winter (hence colder/blockier PNW winters).

The warm/dry autumn in the SW US has no meaning by itself. It’s a symptom of climate variables we’re already taking into account.

Yeah, not saying it's a driver or anything but certainly fits.

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Nice steady rainfall for right now. 51F.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

I think some on here might see our first freeze late this week. 🤩 🤪 

You might need to invite Jim up for a sleepover. 

  • lol 3
  • Death Ridge 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is unlikely. Aerosol concentrations increased significantly throughout the climate warming regime from 1860s-1940s, which saw > 30% of the observed sea level rise to-date.

Why would cooling suddenly initiate right as CO^2 emissions began taking off after WWII? The positive radiative forcing from CO^2 between the 1940s-70s exceeded the negative radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols over the same time period by at least 250%.

The underlying problem is that we are unable to simulate or hindcast unforced climate variability, and are left trying to explain every decade to decade wobble in global temperatures via some form of human intervention (or simple radiative forcings from TSI/vulcanism/etc). Yet somehow sea levels manage to rise/fall 500+ feet without any meaningful change in solar output or GHG concentrations. The (annoying) truth is staring us down while we bury our heads in the sand in avoidance. 😕

Jim Carrey Chance GIF

  • lol 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Phil said:

That is unlikely. Aerosol concentrations increased significantly throughout the climate warming regime from 1860s-1940s, which saw > 30% of the observed sea level rise to-date.

Why would cooling suddenly initiate right as CO^2 emissions began taking off after WWII? The positive radiative forcing from CO^2 between the 1940s-70s exceeded the negative radiative forcing from anthropogenic aerosols over the same time period by at least 250%.

The underlying problem is that we are unable to simulate or hindcast unforced climate variability, and are left trying to explain every decade to decade wobble in global temperatures via some form of human intervention (or simple radiative forcings from TSI/vulcanism/etc). Yet somehow sea levels manage to rise/fall 500+ feet without any meaningful change in solar output or GHG concentrations. The (annoying) truth is staring us down while we bury our heads in the sand in avoidance. 😕

Pretty much this. There's this default line of thinking now to try to explain climate variability mainly through human influence - without really understanding what has caused a lot of the significant climate change in the past. 

Doesn't mean current climate science is totally wrong or GHG warming isn’t real, of course. Just very incomplete. 

  • Like 1
  • Popcorn 1
  • Thanks 1

A forum for the end of the world.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

And then it will torch and all melt. 😈

It would be an AR event to ruin an early opening. The side of the resort with lifts doesn’t see much daylight this time of the year. 

  • Like 4

Bend, OR

Elevation: 3550'

 

Snow History:

Nov: 1"

Dec: .5"

Jan: 1.9"

Feb: 12.7"

Mar: 1.0"

Total: 17.1"

 

2016/2017: 70"

2015/2016: 34"

Average: ~25"

 

2017/2018 Winter Temps

Lowest Min: 1F on 2/23

Lowest Max: 23F on 12/24, 2/22

Lows <32: 87

Highs <32: 13

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

15 minutes ago, DareDuck said:

It would be an AR event to ruin an early opening. The side of the resort with lifts doesn’t see much daylight this time of the year. 

Yep. So far not seeing a sign of that on models, just a bunch of snow

Did somebody say SNOW?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

Some nice cloud structure with the storms too, and a waterspout on the Columbia near Longview...

462548384_3984495811873547_5723044412897353196_n.jpg

462648704_490186400840917_3245020319485817753_n.png

Pretty cool how you can see the water being disturbed by the waterspout.

  • Like 4

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I like the 46 day PNA 🤗🥶🌨🌧

Screenshot_20241028_194734_Chrome.jpg

Perturbed members.

  • Like 2

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I have a great feeling about November. 
Anyway, .06” on the day, 6.06” for the month. 

I'm not seeing it, but who knows.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just totally sucks when you're in a cold trough and can't even get below normal temps out of it.

  • lol 1
  • Sun 1
  • Weenie 2
  • Death Ridge 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...