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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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59 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

With a Nina that isn't true though.  No doubt I was hoping we would take the cold autumn route, but that ship has sailed now.  I loved 1988-89, but the autumn was atrocious.  In fact the period from first freeze in the fall to last freeze in the spring was very short that winter.  For two months though it was a very solid stuff.  The other big match is 2016-17.  I would take my chances with the general setup that winter again.  

October 2016 was much more active.

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Winter Storm warning. Up to 1-2' of snow above 5000' from Crater Lake to Santiam Pass.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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42 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

No doubt about that. One of the wettest Octobers on record for the region.

Pretty hard to ignore what happened in the north this month though.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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I guess the GFS isn't quite as awful this run.  Just not a fan of how progressive it looks right now.

 

 

 

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Here are all the +QBO/weak/moderate Nina or ENSO neutral falls back to 1950: 2022, 2020, 2016, 2013, 2010, 2008, 1992, 1990, 1985, 1980, 1978, 1971, 1966, 1961, 1959. 

Only real duds were 1980-81 and 1966-67.

Unfortunately, 66-67 is on both Pete Parsons, and mine top analog years. However I need to correct the dud as Pete pointed out January was an active month for windstorms with a peak gust in Portland of 62 mph (this was missed on my Winter forecast).

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1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That one was an anafront-style setup later in the month.

I had about 10” of snow on 11/19/96! Also highs in the low to mid 30’s and lows in the low to mid 20’s for 5 straight days! 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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53 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

at least its snowing on Mauna Kea, HI

 

 

 

Seems really early for that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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On 10/28/2024 at 1:23 PM, the_convergence_zone said:

Do you know the date/time of when that wind damage likely happened? Curious to see a sounding if there was one…

Did some digging. It’s even more impressive than I realized. Posted a video below that interviewed people who experienced the windstorm.

1) According to people living there, the damage occurred over the span of ~ 90mins as the storm was coming in from the south.

2) Winds at the 850mb level were 105kts, and this particular location was actually *above* the 850mb layer during the storm.

3) The winds were clearly further enhanced by the Venturi Effect and leeside mountain wave acceleration. All of the severe damage was on the downslope side of ridges perpendicular to wind flow. Other areas appear relatively unscathed. Definitely terrain enhanced.

4) Multiple personal weather stations in **wooded areas** recorded gusts over 100mph (up to 118mph) BEFORE power was cut. And these stations weren’t even in the hardest hit areas. 😵

Given the meteorological data, and knowing how hardwood forests typically respond to wind, it appears likely that gusts exceeded 130-140mph on the lee side of these higher ridges, and might have exceeded 150mph.

Not even hurricane Hazel (which produced ~100mph gusts here in 1954) was able to wipe out hardwood forests like this, despite the unusual S/SE wind direction . These photos are more akin to those taken following the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which produced a 186mph gust in MA. That’s the only other storm I can think of that caused such large scale blowdowns.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Literally the biggest regret of my life that I didn't move to a climate I like at least 20 years ago.  Where I'm living now was intended to be a 10 year thing before moving to somewhere good.  24 years later it still hasn't happened.  Something always comes along to make it basically impossible to get out of here.  Lately it has been health issues with my wife. 😕

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I must apologize for my awful behavior on here the last couple of days.  No excuse for it other than just being tired of what a battle it is to get the kind of weather I like around here sometimes.  FWIW I still think the stars are aligned well for this winter.

Dont burn yourself out 2/3rds of the way through fall brother lol. I get the feeling we’re gonna get some snow and cold weather before the end of the year. 

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3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Did some digging. It’s even more impressive than I realized.

1) According to people living there (see interview below) the damage occurred over the span of ~ 90mins as the storm was coming in from the south.

2) Winds at the 850mb level were 105kts, and this particular location was actually *above* the 850mb layer during the storm.

3) The winds were clearly further enhanced by the Venturi Effect and leeside mountain wave acceleration. All of the severe damage was on the downslope side of ridges perpendicular to wind flow. Other areas appear relatively unscathed..100% terrain enhanced.

4) Multiple personal weather stations in **wooded areas** recorded gusts over 100mph (up to 118mph) BEFORE power was cut. And these stations weren’t even in the hardest hit areas. 😵

Given the meteorological data, and knowing how hardwood forests typically respond to wind, it appears likely that gusts exceeded 130-140mph on the lee side of these higher ridges, and might have exceeded 150mph.

Not even hurricane Hazel (which produced ~100mph gusts here in 1954) was able to wipe out hardwood forests like this, despite the unusual S/SE wind direction . These photos are more akin to those taken following the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which produced a 186mph gust in MA. That’s the only other storm I can think of that caused such large scale blowdowns.

Must have been an incredibly scary night with all the trees going down around there.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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17 minutes ago, Phil said:

Did some digging. It’s even more impressive than I realized. Posted a video below that interviewed people who experienced the windstorm.

1) According to people living there, the damage occurred over the span of ~ 90mins as the storm was coming in from the south.

2) Winds at the 850mb level were 105kts, and this particular location was actually *above* the 850mb layer during the storm.

3) The winds were clearly further enhanced by the Venturi Effect and leeside mountain wave acceleration. All of the severe damage was on the downslope side of ridges perpendicular to wind flow. Other areas appear relatively unscathed. Definitely terrain enhanced.

4) Multiple personal weather stations in **wooded areas** recorded gusts over 100mph (up to 118mph) BEFORE power was cut. And these stations weren’t even in the hardest hit areas. 😵

Given the meteorological data, and knowing how hardwood forests typically respond to wind, it appears likely that gusts exceeded 130-140mph on the lee side of these higher ridges, and might have exceeded 150mph.

Not even hurricane Hazel (which produced ~100mph gusts here in 1954) was able to wipe out hardwood forests like this, despite the unusual S/SE wind direction . These photos are more akin to those taken following the 1938 Long Island Express Hurricane, which produced a 186mph gust in MA. That’s the only other storm I can think of that caused such large scale blowdowns.

Absolutely incredible. Thanks for looking into it. I’ll never forget experiencing straight line winds over 100 mph (during the 1998 derecho in Wisconsin when I was a kid). The sound the wind makes at that speed is etched in my brain. It lasted maybe 5 minutes, the thought of it going on for an hour or more and being surrounded by trees is terrifying. 

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2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Literally the biggest regret of my life that I didn't move to a climate I like at least 20 years ago.  Where I'm living now was intended to be a 10 year thing before moving to somewhere good.  24 years later it still hasn't happened.  Something always comes along to make it basically impossible to get out of here.  Lately it has been health issues with my wife. 😕

What sort of health issues would preclude a move (if you don’t mind me asking)?

Honestly man, given how much this matters to you, I think you’re doing yourself a painful disservice wasting what few good years you have left in a climate you loathe. Unless your wife’s condition precludes it, I think you need to rip the bandaid off and move.

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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4 minutes ago, Phil said:

What sort of health issues would preclude a move (if you don’t mind me asking)?

Honestly man, given how much this matters to you, I think you’re doing yourself a painful disservice wasting what few good years you have left in a climate you loathe. Unless your wife’s condition precludes it, I think you need to rip the bandaid off and move.

@snow_wizard I 2nd what Phil says. If you can move, move.

 

If it's a little harder than it ideally could be, don't let that hold you back. I can't speak for your situation, but please just do what you know is best for you in the long run.

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Did somebody say SNOW?

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50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I must apologize for my awful behavior on here the last couple of days.  No excuse for it other than just being tired of what a battle it is to get the kind of weather I like around here sometimes.  FWIW I still think the stars are aligned well for this winter.

No need to apologize. Only a handful of people can divorce emotion from something that they they are passionate about and still be enjoyable people to be around. Sadly, none of those sociopaths post here anymore.

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46 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Cry me a river. Sorry I posted about the rare October snowstorm on forecast here 🙄

Sorry about that.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

What sort of health issues would preclude a move (if you don’t mind me asking)?

Honestly man, given how much this matters to you, I think you’re doing yourself a painful disservice wasting what few good years you have left in a climate you loathe. Unless your wife’s condition precludes it, I think you need to rip the bandaid off and move.

Or move to Canada! Boom automatic snow and free heath care. No idea if they actually let us move up there free Willy or not but that’d be nice

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12 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Or move to Canada! Boom automatic snow and free heath care. No idea if they actually let us move up there free Willy or not but that’d be nice

LOL, they don’t, it’s quite the bureaucratic process (and the system is quite complex).

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It's called clown range for a reason.

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4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Pretty hard to ignore what happened in the north this month though.

I think this is something that might be getting overlooked by the non-Canadians here. If that AR had set up just a tiny bit further to the SW, we'd all be talking about how unbelievably wet this October is. As far as I'm concerned, the PNW has checked the box for "wet October" as far as what implications it could have as we get into late fall & winter. It doesn't seem unreasonable to say that the atmosphere is likely configured in a similar way as many previous wet Octobers were for SEA & PDX, even though this one hasn't actually been all that wet yet. An AR shifting one way or another by a few miles is kind of irrelevant when looking at the bigger picture. The broader pattern is still there.

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