October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

There was a talk I attended at my last job that went in deep about low res NWP forecasting as opposed to AI forecasting and what they found that the last 5 days emerge patterns that pop out 15 days later. It was kind of weak correlation, but was used for forecasting Atlantic waves as energy moved off the Sahel. Maybe recency bias, but I feel like that can apply to us and the 500mb pattern over the Pacific.

I think the overall correlation comes out at ~0.75, not bad.  I feel like at this point, they might even be able to extend the model out a bit.  Euro seasonal has been pretty good with overall H5 patterns too.  But yeah, sometimes the 15-day model will pick up on a 30-40 day forecast potential. 

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

384hr GEFS is developing a real healthy Aleutian ridge. 

Even well before hour 384 there is a serious intrusion of cold air.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

I'd still argue against this. Those wind gusts were largely at the 900mb level and higher and only measured at the surface because of the terrain. Certainly very serious winds with severe damage all the same, but not comparable to the sea level wind speed which is generally what a hurricane's strength is measured by.

Helene still lost strength quickly like any other hurricane, it's just that the inland topography allowed for the strong winds to more easily reach ground level.  The impacts of a tropical storm on that terrain are typically going to be exponentially worse than the impacts of a storm with the same strength hitting a relatively flat coastal plain. We had 100mph winds in the mountains of SoCal when Hilary hit the state, but the storm was still only classified as a tropical storm by the time it got there too.

This is the actual track of Helene. It was down to a tropical storm by the time it reached these areas and blasted them with those effects. Much, much weaker than when it made landfall. Helene was moreso story of a worst case scenario track rather than a story of a storm that refused to weaken.

The terrain between Valdosta, GA and Anderson, SC where the bulk of the wind damage and deaths were is largely flat and is topographically distinct from the Blue Ridge foothills in the far west part of SC.

It's just that the strong forward speed of the storm allowed those Cat 1 level winds to surface a little further inland than you'd normally see. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

2 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Some models are starting to go crazy with Milton

Yea, I've been watching updates from a group I follow on Facebook. Here is the spaghetti map and the intensity forecast for Milton

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My co-workers were supposed to go to Orlando and Tampa this week, but it sounds like some of them are bailing on the trip.

I'm in Orlando now. Sounds like I'll get out just in time...although a part of me kinda likes the idea of experiencing a hurricane here. Wouldn't be great for work and other life stuff, though.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Oh ok. In that case, “the other forum” is American Weather Forums. They have a pretty lively and well-informed tropical discussion section on there. Good place to learn about hurricanes.

That's the only other weather forum I've ever frequented. Though not recently. But this place blows it away for western weather talk.

[Tenochtitlan]

18 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

That's the only other weather forum I've ever frequented. Though not recently. But this place blows it away for western weather talk.

Yeah, there’s hardly any over there. I think it used to be called Eastern Weather Forums, and despite the name change it still heavily focuses on the Eastern US.

[DeepFriedEgg]

The now two week long heatwave in the southwest is nothing short of mind boggling. 12 straight record high temps

[Chewbacca Defense]

3 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

My co-workers were supposed to go to Orlando and Tampa this week, but it sounds like some of them are bailing on the trip.

I'm going to have to start keeping an eye on this myself.  Right now I am going to be on the very northern edge of the cone of uncertainty, but if turns north, I am going to have to start paying real close attention to if/when the airlines start shutting down flights in and out of Charleston.  It seems like they tend to pull the trigger about 18-24 hours before the storm hits.  I'm supposed to fly out at 6pm on Wednesday.

I would really hate to cut my trip short, I had a brutally honest conversation with my aunt today, and this trip will in all likelihood be the last time I get to see my mom. It sounds like she is starting to show signs that she is a lot closer to the end of her road than any of us really want to admit.

 

Currently up in Atlanta where it got up to 88 today. Pretty friggin miserable outside, though surprisingly enough, its not too terribly humid (by Georgia standards).  I went up to North Georgia near the NC border, on Friday and it was incredibly pleasant.  It was only about 74, compared to 85 down in Atlanta. 

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I'm going to have to start keeping an eye on this myself.  Right now I am going to be on the very northern edge of the cone of uncertainty, but if turns north, I am going to have to start paying real close attention to if/when the airlines start shutting down flights in and out of Charleston.  It seems like they tend to pull the trigger about 18-24 hours before the storm hits.  I'm supposed to fly out at 6pm on Wednesday.

I would really hate to cut my trip short, I had a brutally honest conversation with my aunt today, and this trip will in all likelihood be the last time I get to see my mom. It sounds like she is starting to show signs that she is a lot closer to the end of her road than any of us really want to admit.

 

Currently up in Atlanta where it got up to 88 today. Pretty friggin miserable outside, though surprisingly enough, its not too terribly humid (by Georgia standards).  I went up to North Georgia near the NC border, on Friday and it was incredibly pleasant.  It was only about 74, compared to 85 down in Atlanta. 

Some of the newest guidance is actually beginning to push it south... Hope that means you get to spend more time with your mom.

[Tenochtitlan]

This isn’t quite a worst case scenario for Tampa but would still be really bad.

 

[Timmy]

4 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This isn’t quite a worst case scenario for Tampa but would still be really bad.

 

Gem is like 988mb at landfall

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, Timmy said:

Gem is like 988mb at landfall

That dry air is the main difference between a pretty bad storm and an unabated monster for Tampa Bay.

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This isn’t quite a worst case scenario for Tampa but would still be really bad.

 

Does anyone know what how the SE quadrant of these things usually fare?  That's where my sister is if this is correct.  About 30 miles SE of Tampa.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That dry air is the main difference between a pretty bad storm and an unabated monster for Tampa Bay.

Yeah....988 is a nothing burger pretty much.

[Phishy Wx]

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

That dry air is the main difference between a pretty bad storm and an unabated monster for Tampa Bay.

that and crossing the upwelling wake of Helene

[Tenochtitlan]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Does anyone know what how the SE quadrant of these things usually fare?  That's where my sister is if this is correct.  About 30 miles SE of Orlando.

The right side is the bad side to be on, so in this case that would be south of where the center tracks.

Since it will be moving fast, it could be a serious wind producer for Orlando, similar to Charley. Hopefully it doesn’t make landfall as a major like the NWS and GFS are predicting. 

The models seem divided with some predicting a bad hit near Tampa, the rest are further south and weaker. For example, UKMET is predicting just 993 mb landfall south of Naples. That would be a non-event (at least for Tampa). 

[Tenochtitlan]

One good thing is that Milton is tiny right now…hopefully it stays that way and then misses the most populated parts of Florida.

[Cold Snap]

46 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

The now two week long heatwave in the southwest is nothing short of mind boggling. 12 straight record high temps

I’m in Phoenix right now. It got to 107 here today and it was miserable.

[Thermal Trough]

2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Yea, I've been watching updates from a group I follow on Facebook. Here is the spaghetti map and the intensity forecast for Milton

 

41 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

This isn’t quite a worst case scenario for Tampa but would still be really bad.

 

Tampa residents need to start preparing now. The 00z GFS track for Milton is bad news for Tampa Bay.

 

[SpaceRace22]

22 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

One good thing is that Milton is tiny right now…hopefully it stays that way and then misses the most populated parts of Florida.

Aside from the obvious part where tiny=smaller damage field, small storms tend to create a lot less storm surge as well. If I were in Tampa I'd probably rather see a super tiny Cat 4 or low end 5 over a very large Cat 3. Unfortunately though, most of the hurricane models show Milton rapidly expanding in size as it gets closer to Florida. So the tiny size may not last.

[Deweydog]

2 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Aside from the obvious part where tiny=smaller damage field, small storms tend to create a lot less storm surge as well. If I were in Tampa I'd probably rather see a super tiny Cat 4 or low end 5 over a very large Cat 3. Unfortunately though, most of the hurricane models show Milton rapidly expanding in size as it gets closer to Florida. So the tiny size may not last.

Grower not a shower.

[SpaceRace22]

Welp, the HAFS-B gets up to 193mph sustained with 209mph gusts.

Also, RIP to the 4 Mexican Army shacks on Isla Pérez

[Brennan]

3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

I'm in Orlando now. Sounds like I'll get out just in time...although a part of me kinda likes the idea of experiencing a hurricane here. Wouldn't be great for work and other life stuff, though.

Come up and stay with us in Jacksonville.  

[Brennan]

People talking about track as if it goes south of Tampa everything will be good. South of Tampa is Fort Myers, Naples, you know, Sanibel Island…. Who got hit the hardest with storm surge 2 years ago.

[SpaceRace22]

33 minutes ago, Brennan said:

People talking about track as if it goes south of Tampa everything will be good. South of Tampa is Fort Myers, Naples, you know, Sanibel Island…. Who got hit the hardest with storm surge 2 years ago.

That is true, but Fort Myers is a metro area of only 800k. Tampa has 3.2 million people, and the bay makes it especially vulnerable to storm surge, even moreso than the coast around Fort Myers. Areas further south would obviously be bad, but a direct hit of an H4 or H5 on Tampa Bay could easily be the worst hurricane in American history.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

49F and clear for now.

[SpaceRace22]

Looks like the CME from that X9.0 solar flare might be finally starting to hit. Solar wind just started to pick up in the last hour or so, and we are approaching the tail end of the arrival window NOAA's model had predicted. Keep an eye out for the aurora over the next few hours.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/products/real-time-solar-wind

[Meatyorologist]

Look at the lower right half of a human face up in AB! 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Look at the lower right half of a human face up in AB! 

Creepy

[Groundhog]

Euro & EPS keep trending away from a ridge setting up shop. Less blocky, more zonal pattern is the trend. 

[Tanis Leach]

39 degrees at my house right now in Sherwood. Marathon in an hour so hope downtown is a titch warmer (51 is the ideal starting temperature for distance running). 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

39 degrees at my house right now in Sherwood. Marathon in an hour so hope downtown is a titch warmer (51 is the ideal starting temperature for distance running). 

Good luck!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Down to 36 this morning at Corvallis, home of the 4-1 Oregon State Beavers. 

[Tenochtitlan]

Milton’s track is trending a bit south. Good news for Tampa, bad news for Sarasota.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

Milton’s track is trending a bit south. Good news for Tampa, bad news for Sarasota.

I've heard folx say a more southern track would be weaker. Are we still thinking that?

[Tenochtitlan]

31 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

I've heard folx say a more southern track would be weaker. Are we still thinking that?

I think so. 

Now GFS has it coming in north of Tampa…that wouldn’t be good. Bottom line is there’s still uncertainty, and it seems it could hit anywhere from Cedar Key to Naples. 

[Front Ranger]

I've seen it rain more here in Florida the past 5 days than I've seen the past 5 months in Colorado.

[Tenochtitlan]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I've seen it rain more here in Florida the past 5 days than I've seen the past 5 months in Colorado.

Any flooding?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I've seen it rain more here in Florida the past 5 days than I've seen the past 5 months in Colorado.

Sounds like more on the way. Are you there for the Orlando vacation experience or work?