October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[iFred]

Local wildlife looking for transportation.

[Meatyorologist]

Bet your day isn't as chill as mine

[Tenochtitlan]

Portland’s pseudo-fall continues. It feels like the perfect Bellingham midsummer day, yet again. I have mixed feelings about it, but I’ve been taking long walks in the sun which is nice. 

[Deweydog]

Gorgeous day. Fleeting opportunities SEIZED.

[iFred]

[Thermal Trough]

40 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Portland’s pseudo-fall continues. It feels like the perfect Bellingham midsummer day, yet again. I have mixed feelings about it, but I’ve been taking long walks in the sun which is nice. 

Summer just doesn’t want to end down here. Tomorrow will probably be the last 80 of the year though.  

[SnowWillarrive]

56 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

Summer just doesn’t want to end down here. Tomorrow will probably be the last 80 of the year though.  

What a dump 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day. 

[Christensen87]

Beautiful October evening in the Wenatchee Valley. Needed a breather after that game…

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Beautiful October evening in the Wenatchee Valley. Needed a breather after that game…

Sorry ur team lost. But you have a beautiful view and life is good. 

[Thermal Trough]

16 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Beautiful October evening in the Wenatchee Valley. Needed a breather after that game…

Wow so beautiful! Is that the lake or Columbia River?

[SpaceRace22]

Looks like the aurora is out as far south as Virginia right now. Fingers crossed it keeps up after sunset here.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Looks like the aurora is out as far south as Virginia right now. Fingers crossed it keeps up after sunset here.

Wow, about the latitude equivalent of Northern California. Hopefully it works out, was kinda cloudy last night to the north anyways so glad it seems more likely tonight with much more clear conditions. 

[Christensen87]

19 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

Wow so beautiful! Is that the lake or Columbia River?

Columbia River. Lincoln Rock State Park, one of our favorite places to hang at since we moved to Cashmere. 

[iFred]

About to headline #WeatherFestPDX. Hope to see some of you here in Troutdale tonight.

[Thermal Trough]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

About to headline #WeatherFestPDX. Hope to see some of you here in Troutdale tonight.

The Gateway to the Gorge! Enjoy your stay!

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

About to headline #WeatherFestPDX. Hope to see some of you here in Troutdale tonight.

Your pick of Sean Nyberg and the Condescenders as an opener was a real turn off for me.

[Groundhog]

Cascade Falls jest east of Mission, BC.

[MossMan]

34 minutes ago, Christensen87 said:

Columbia River. Lincoln Rock State Park, one of our favorite places to hang at since we moved to Cashmere. 

Great park! My favorite is Daroga since it’s almost always empty lol

[SilverFallsAndrew]

23 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Great park! My favorite is Daroga since it’s almost always empty lol

Was that today? It was sunny here today!

[MossMan]

29 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Was that today? It was sunny here today!

No this was from 2yrs ago. 

[Phishy Wx]

@Front Ranger

 

this you?

 

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

A beautiful 80F burger today. No end in sight to the summer weather. We're basically California with cooler nights up until the end of October anymore.

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Some chillier nights on the clown range GFS.

[the_convergence_zone]

Whoever controls that weather machine just turned up the cooker on Milton. It will be a major hurricane by morning. 

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Just got an aurora alert. Anyone seeing anything? I’m not.

[Phishy Wx]

might get a page turn mid month ish to get the heck out of this warm dry fall.  another 10-12 days or so

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Just got an aurora alert. Anyone seeing anything? I’m not.

gunna go look in a bit I think

[Front Ranger]

32 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

@Front Ranger

 

this you?

 

 

 

No. But I can't f*cking wait for fall to arrive.

[Thermal Trough]

21 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

 

10 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Whoever controls that weather machine just turned up the cooker on Milton. It will be a major hurricane by morning. 

The new NHC track has Milton making landfall as a major just south of Tampa Bay on Wednesday evening. The cone of uncertainty is getting smaller but still pretty large. Landfall anywhere from as far north as Cedar Keys to as far south as Naples. But the good news is that once it exits Florida it looks like it won’t affect the East Coast. It’s going to become a storm.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, iFred said:

About to headline #WeatherFestPDX. Hope to see some of you here in Troutdale tonight.

Looks like a jam band crowd.

[Thermal Trough]

2 hours ago, Christensen87 said:

Columbia River. Lincoln Rock State Park, one of our favorite places to hang at since we moved to Cashmere. 

Looks beautiful there! I need to add that spot to my list when I visit Eastern Washington again during the summer.

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

 

The new NHC track has Milton making landfall as a major just south of Tampa Bay on Wednesday evening. The cone of uncertainty is getting smaller but still pretty large. Landfall anywhere from as far north as Cedar Keys to as far south as Naples. But the good news is that once it exits Florida it looks like it won’t affect the East Coast. It’s going to become a storm.

The cone width is based on historical track error, it doesn’t take into account the model forecasts at all. The actual margin of error with this one is maybe half that width. Tampa needs to pray for a more southward track. 

[Mercurial]

Hiked up the Plain of Six Glaciers at Lake Louise today.  Ran into a bit of snow above lake level.

 

edit: oh yeah Moraine Lake too

[Thermal Trough]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The cone width is based on historical track error, it doesn’t take into account the model forecasts at all. The actual margin of error with this one is maybe half that width. Tampa needs to pray for a more southward track. 

The 00z GFS just came in and it has a landfall north of Tampa Bay and just south of Cedar Keys. This is not looking good for the Tampa Metro area.

[Tenochtitlan]

25 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

The 00z GFS just came in and it has a landfall north of Tampa Bay and just south of Cedar Keys. This is not looking good for the Tampa Metro area.

Yeah, unfortunately still seems like a 50/50 chance (or a bit higher) Tampa takes a direct hit from this cane, comparing models. 

Milton is quite small but the current thinking is that it will rapidly intensity before undergoing an ERC, then grow in size and weaken some before landfall.

[Thermal Trough]

5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, unfortunately still seems like a 50/50 chance (or a bit higher) Tampa takes a direct hit from this cane, comparing models. 

Milton is quite small but the current thinking is that it will rapidly intensity before undergoing an ERC, then grow in size and weaken some before landfall.

This is a one in the lifetime storm for them. There’s over 3 million people in the Tampa Metro area. They need to start evacuating as soon as tomorrow. For sure don’t wait until Wednesday.

[Tenochtitlan]

Just now, Thermal Trough said:

This is a one in the lifetime storm for them. There’s over 3 million people in the Tampa Metro area. They need to start evacuating as soon as tomorrow. For sure don’t wait until Wednesday.

Yeah…it could be a really bad situation with all the debris from Helene already piled up. I hope people there are taking this seriously. Of course it could still miss but it’s not worth betting on.

[snow_wizard]

Models are really trying to deliver some cold air to part so the US later in the month.  The GFS and the ECMWF AI seem to be the most emphatic about it.