October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

31 minutes ago, Phil said:

 

“Ensemble support for a wet fall”? Which ones?

The EPS weeklies and extended GEFS are both significantly drier than average.

 

Yikes.  That is really dry.  A lot of places are already running a deficit over the last year, so this is pretty bad.  Not the time of year I want dry.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You better home because Tim isn't going to stop twisting that knife.

It doesn't really matter.  The atmosphere is more Ninaish than not so we are fine regardless.  

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Thermal Trough said:

 

Here’s the track the 12z EURO shows. Landfall between Clearwater and St. Petersburg. Then wraps around Tampa and heads south of Orlando. Lots of wobbling as it makes its approach for landfall.

At least it weakens a lot when it hits land.

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, snow drift said:

I think neutral is likely.

I agree if you are using the CPC data.  Also a Nina would require a number of months to average -0.5 or below so neutral could be a good call.  The subsurface has been cold enough to support a Nina for months now.  Not sure why it's so reluctant.  At any rate weak ENSO winters can get pretty blocky and with the MEI being Ninaish I think the blocking will be favorably located.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Tropical Update

10/7/24 11:05 am

Hurricane Milton
Cat: 5 - Wind: 175 mph
Pressure: 911mb - Moving: E at 9 mph

Milton continues to rapidly intensify with an astronomical level of strengthening over the past 18-24 hours. Note the incredible amount of lightning encircling the eye wall indicating ongoing strengthening. Wow!

 

1 hour ago, snow drift said:

We need an eyewall replacement cycle or shear or dry air.

Decent chance it's peaking too soon to inflict maximum damage in FL. We should know by this evening.

[snow drift]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I agree if you are using the CPC data.  Also a Nina would require a number of months to average -0.5 or below so neutral could be a good call.  The subsurface has been cold enough to support a Nina for months now.  Not sure why it's so reluctant.  At any rate weak ENSO winters can get pretty blocky and with the MEI being Ninaish I think the blocking will be favorably located.

There are some great +QBO enso neutral winters. It seems like the Pacific jet is weaker during neutral winters compared to la niña winters. Strong la niña winters are really bad. More blocking and less Pacific jet would be preferred by most people on this board. 

[T-Town]

62 here. Our guard dog is facing the wrong direction. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, snow drift said:

There are some great +QBO enso neutral winters. It seems like the Pacific jet is weaker during neutral winters compared to la niña winters. Strong la niña winters are really bad. More blocking and less Pacific jet would be preferred by most people on this board. 

I wouldn't say that. Last strong Nina was 2010-11. Lots of blocking with that one. Before that you had 2007-08, which didn't have great blocking but had a ton of snow anywhere above 1000' in the PNW.

2020-2021 was upper end moderate and had its moments, certainly not a terrible winter most places. 

[Tenochtitlan]

22 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Decent chance it's peaking too soon to inflict maximum damage in FL. We should know by this evening.

I think all the models are in agreement that it will weaken significantly prior to landfall. The problem is it takes storm surge a while to catch up to wind speed, like we saw during Katrina. 

[TT-SEA]

40 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

You better home because Tim isn't going to stop twisting that knife.

I haven't talked about ENSO at all and responded to another person's post about the Nina numbers with a couple maps just to back up what they said.    

Side note... we often do even better with cold neutral.

[TT-SEA]

Up to 75 in North Bend now... warm day out there.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

There is a probably a 10% chance this happens. My wife doesn't want to move, family n' such, but she does love her job. I was trying to convince her that Clark County isn't that bad and had done some Zillow hunting. Just looked at a couple lots and did a driveby of a house in a small neighborhood with a park for the kid. Might change her tune a bit.

Bellingham and Liberty Lake would be better for the weather, but Portland is the only other place that I could land a FAANGesque job if I need to.

Not the right kind of work that could be good in the south Willamette Valley? Y'all can experience what it's like here with regularity and the cities themselves are quite nice apart from a few blocks in Eugene.

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

[Gradient Keeper]

One more

[snow drift]

47 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

I wouldn't say that. Last strong Nina was 2010-11. Lots of blocking with that one. Before that you had 2007-08, which didn't have great blocking but had a ton of snow anywhere above 1000' in the PNW.

2020-2021 was upper end moderate and had its moments, certainly not a terrible winter most places. 

I respectfully disagree. I'll take 1978-79, 1985-86, and 1992-93 over any strong la niña winter in my lifetime. I know that the 2008 calendar year had 132 inches of snow at Spokane, but 1978-79, 1985-86, and 1992-93 featured more consistent cold. 2010-11 had moments of greatness, but it had melt offs followed by long dull periods.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I haven't talked about ENSO at all and responded to another person's post about the Nina numbers with a couple maps just to back up what they said.    

Side note... we often do even better with cold neutral.

Especially down in Oregon like 2016-17 or 2013-14.

[snow drift]

59 minutes ago, T-Town said:

62 here. Our guard dog is facing the wrong direction. 

He looks ferocious

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I wouldn't say that. Last strong Nina was 2010-11. Lots of blocking with that one. Before that you had 2007-08, which didn't have great blocking but had a ton of snow anywhere above 1000' in the PNW.

2020-2021 was upper end moderate and had its moments, certainly not a terrible winter most places. 

I’ll say this til my grave about 20-21’. It was one big event. Which is fine. People always think I’m trying to minimize that event but I am not. Just when I think of solid to good winters I think of winters with multiple events. It would be like if 2008-09 was only the event on December 20-22 and the rest of the winter season was rudderless meh. But there was lowland snow and cold before that event and to some degree off and on into March. 

[the_convergence_zone]

It's coming...

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

For the West, I believe 22-23’ will be a top 5 winter of the 21st Century. For the PNW we can and probably will do better. 

[T-Town]

16 minutes ago, snow drift said:

He looks ferocious

 

If you’re a squirrel then yes. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's coming...

Should be pretty pleasant down here. Kind of a typical but delayed transition to fall and the wet season. 

[snow drift]

2 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

For the West, I believe 22-23’ will be a top 5 winter of the 21st Century. For the PNW we can and probably will do better. 

It was a good November/December. I have no complaints about that one.  

[Thermal Trough]

4 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

A cool graphic. Milton is somehow the only Cat 5 storm that has ever moved to the southeast in the Atlantic. Weird!

That’s insane! It’s going in the completely opposite direction of the usual direction. Based on that graph you wouldn’t think it would even be possible.

[ShawniganLake]

21 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It's coming...

2003-04 is gonna be a strong analog this winter. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

2003-04 is gonna be a strong analog this winter. 

Could be worse. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

I will admit, Hurricane Milton is looking bad for Florida. Even if it losses strength, it will still have a big storm surge. I can't believe it's down to 905mb with winds at 180 mph. It would be interesting to see if it gets stronger

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

I will admit, Hurricane Milton is looking bad for Florida. Even if it losses strength, it will still have a big storm surge. I can't believe it's down to 905mb with winds at 180 mph. It would be interesting to see if it gets stronger

It will. It has at least 8-12 hrs of favorable conditions. 

[ShawniganLake]

20 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be worse. 

Yea. I was kinda just pulling that one out of the air but doesn’t feel like the worst fit. I think we will see an event or 2 during the first half of the season with a kind of lacklustre second half.  

[Gradient Keeper]

Milton is moving E-NE now and models I believe had it moving due east until late tonight. I bet it reaches 190-195 mph.

[fubario]

13 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Milton is moving E-NE now and models I believe had it moving due east until late tonight. I bet it reaches 190-195 mph.

mind boggling

[Phishy Wx]

39 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Could be worse. 

not turrible

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Milton is moving E-NE now and models I believe had it moving due east until late tonight. I bet it reaches 190-195 mph.

yikes, also limiting the land interaction with the Yucatan

[Christensen87]

Sheesh, 18z shows Tampa area just getting hammered. Not good. 

[bainbridgekid]

Everett reporting 77 degrees currently.

Impressive, but really goes to show how insane the October, 2022 heatwave was. Seattle hit 88 on the 16th that year.

[snow drift]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

yikes, also limiting the land interaction with the Yucatan

No good, I was hoping for more land interaction. Sheesh

[Phishy Wx]

currently 71 IMBY

[snow drift]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Milton is moving E-NE now and models I believe had it moving due east until late tonight. I bet it reaches 190-195 mph.

Things a beast