October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Phishy Wx]

Milton is getting that annular look

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Well, I hope everyone was able to evacuate because time is up. Milton is a monster Pressure is at 902mb as of last report with winds at 165 mph but there are higher gusts. 

I'll be up for a little while longer, hopefully a new update soon. 

It just looks so calm, cool, and collected out there.  Hard to imagine the mayhem going on inside of it.

[BLI snowman]

6 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

When was the last significant Willamette Valley windstorm?

4/7/2017 was the last significant one in NW OR and SW WA. 

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Milton is getting that annular look

ANALular logs?

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

4/7/2017 was the last significant one in NW OR and SW WA. 

April, no less. Not historically a windstormy month.

[Tenochtitlan]

7 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

4/7/2017 was the last significant one in NW OR and SW WA. 

Wow, it’s been that long?

I miss Bellingham windstorms. When I lived there there were some winters it seemed like we got 55 mph gusts every couple of weeks.

[LowerGarfield]

Great Costal Gale of 2007 gets no respect. People are still talking about it on the Oregon coast where high wind warnings are so common from Oct-Dec especially. 

Clatsop County was cut off in places for days.

[Phishy Wx]

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, LowerGarfield said:

Great Costal Gale of 2007 gets no respect. People are still talking about it on the Oregon coast where high wind warnings are so common from Oct-Dec especially. 

Clatsop County was cut off in places for days.

That thing was beyond the pale when it comes to what was an insane combo of intensity and duration. Just an incredible display of the power of a coastal barrier jet with excellent mixing.

I ended up down there on the 2nd to help out with issues which occurred during the first wave and then was stuck there until the 5th. My folks didn’t get power back until the 7th and most of Astoria was out for about two weeks. At one point, every coastal community from Newport to Aberdeen was out of power. 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

another big solar flare tonight, possibly the largest of this Solar Cycle

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarMax/s/4lwL8NpI2j

Jesus that post. Two others larger in magnitude but this is the first sizable head on CME. That OP probably needs to change his pants after going all caps on what looks to be nothing significantly disruptive.

[Tenochtitlan]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

Matthew was more of a troll face, Milton looks confused. It fits with their names somehow. 

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

 

 

I hate the internet.

[Phil]

lmao  

 

[Low Dew point]

1 hour ago, GHweatherChris said:

I am with you on this, we had no power for 7 days out this way, also where I worked was without power for 6 days in Olympia, we didn't have a generator at the time, ended up at my folks house in Westport (they didn't get it as bad as us), they had a generator but had power back on in 3 days.  Lost wages and also losing food in fridge and freezer was horrible.

One really painful thing I remember is that I had power and heat at work.  My family didn't get that luxury.

We had one fireplace. No insert. Plenty of wood.  And, a gas stove.  The savior. This was my second winter here after 40 years in Socal.  I felt I belonged after that one.

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

April, no less. Not historically a windstormy month.

Yeah, definitely the tail end of the season. 

There have been a few even later ones back in the day.  April 14, 1957 produced a 69mph gust at PDX, April 23, 1943 produced a 67mph gust at Boeing Field, and April 27, 1962 produced a 58mph gust at OLM along with 54mph at SEA and 51mph at PDX. 

In general the 1940s-60s seemed to have a lot more prolific windstorms in our region. Like a lot more....

[Low Dew point]

38 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It just looks so calm, cool, and collected out there.  Hard to imagine the mayhem going on inside of it.

I still think it is South of where projected, again.  It is currently following the Southern extent of the Cone

Also, I can't type "the cone" without thinking of this....

Some of you are too young to remember

[Phishy Wx]

Cheer up, Glaciers lost record ice in 2023

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

17 minutes ago, iFred said:

I hate the internet.

The worst

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

That thing was beyond the pale when it comes to what was an insane combo of intensity and duration. Just an incredible display of the power of a coastal barrier jet with excellent mixing.

I ended up down there on the 2nd to help out with issues which occurred during the first wave and then was stuck there until the 5th. My folks didn’t get power back until the 7th and most of Astoria was out for about two weeks. At one point, every coastal community from Newport to Aberdeen was out of power. 

It was a nothingburger inland so that's why it's not talked about on the forum.

[Phishy Wx]

23 minutes ago, iFred said:

Jesus that post. Two others larger in magnitude but this is the first sizable head on CME. That OP probably needs to change his pants after going all caps on what looks to be nothing significantly disruptive.

X level isn't necessarily related to potential CME size or impacts on Earth

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Deweydog said:

That would be an insane amount cold-core lift. It always amazing even when the Bering Sea systems drop into the 930’s, probably mostly because the systems themselves are so incredibly massive.

I'm guessing it would have to be either in the Bering Sea, the Icelandic Low region of the north Atlantic, or somewhere in the Southern Ocean, particularly the Pacific stretch between Australia and South America.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

I still think it is South of where projected, again.  It is currently following the Southern extent of the Cone

Also, I can't type "the cone" without thinking of this....

Some of you are too young to remember

I loved the cone of silence!  Something always went very wrong when they used it.

[snow_wizard]

18 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, definitely the tail end of the season. 

There have been a few even later ones back in the day.  April 14, 1957 produced a 69mph gust at PDX, April 23, 1943 produced a 67mph gust at Boeing Field, and April 27, 1962 produced a 58mph gust at OLM along with 54mph at SEA and 51mph at PDX. 

In general the 1940s-60s seemed to have a lot more prolific windstorms in our region. Like a lot more....

Not to mention all of the tornados in the 1960s and early 70s.

[Gradient Keeper]

Hurricane Milton. Model trends compared to 18z. Forecast for 5pm Wednesday.

HWRF 8.5mb stronger, HMON 8.8mb weaker, HAFS-A 28.9mb stronger, HAFS-B 17.7mb stronger.

To my untrained eye it seems unlikely to hit Tampa unless we see wobbles to the north or north-northeast at times. Based on the latest satellite trends it's going to be a bit of a tough task to bring Milton as far north as Tampa, even though several models continue to suggest this. I think it's going to be much closer to Fort Myers. We shall see...

12z ECMWF in 12 hours 3 minutes

[Tenochtitlan]

42 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Yeah, definitely the tail end of the season. 

There have been a few even later ones back in the day.  April 14, 1957 produced a 69mph gust at PDX, April 23, 1943 produced a 67mph gust at Boeing Field, and April 27, 1962 produced a 58mph gust at OLM along with 54mph at SEA and 51mph at PDX. 

In general the 1940s-60s seemed to have a lot more prolific windstorms in our region. Like a lot more....

Do you think the shift has to do with climate change? Or is a cyclic or chance thing?

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Do you think the shift has to do with climate change? Or is a cyclic or chance thing?

Our recent bad luck is probably somewhat cyclical.

However, our winter windstorms are generally going to be the byproduct of intense baroclinic zones, and the frequency of those may decrease a little with fewer and fewer cold airmasses from Alaska slipping out over the ocean. I don't think it's necessarily a coincidence that the last -PDO phase had a higher number of big storms before dwindling a bit after 1975. 

[snow_wizard]

Looks like the Nina is going to take another stab at getting its act together.  Nice trade wind burst has commenced.

http://www.atmos.albany.edu/student/ventrice/real_time/timeLon/u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

[Jbolin]

There is virtually NO weather to speak of across the entire CONUS tonight.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

23 minutes ago, Jbolin said:

There is virtually NO weather to speak of across the entire CONUS tonight.

I wonder if that's snow flurries around the PA/NY line. It's 45 here and feels crisp and cold. 

Milton went sub-910mb again for the 3rd time, a new Atlantic record. For all the talk about ERC's, storms sure don't often go back to where they were. 

[Jbolin]

50 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I wonder if that's snow flurries around the PA/NY line. It's 45 here and feels crisp and cold. 

Milton went sub-910mb again for the 3rd time, a new Atlantic record. For all the talk about ERC's, storms sure don't often go back to where they were. 

There are frost/freeze warnings in that part o' the country. 

[Groundhog]

Perhaps those that know more than me can shed light on the convection ahead of this hurricane. But from what I see, the bands are nowhere near Florida. 

[Groundhog]

May boyhood city in the Okanagan valley. Latitude of 49.88N. 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Well, radar is picking up Milton's eye

[Chewbacca Defense]

8 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

another big solar flare tonight, possibly the largest of this Solar Cycle

 

https://www.reddit.com/r/SolarMax/s/4lwL8NpI2j

I hope so, while I’m really glad to get this time with my mom, I have been quite envious of the pictures being posted of the northern lights activity.

 

Speaking of my mom, one of the first things that happened when I got to Charleston is we put her on hospice care.  It’s not for end of life stuff, but to try to prolong her time in assisted living.  She currently has a nice “apartment” furnished with her furniture, and it’s on the ground level with a patio.  Her next step is a nursing home.  Very sad situation.  

 

Take care of yourselves boys and girls. As my mom got older, she thought her ailments would magically fix themselves, and did not take things like exercise and physical therapy seriously.  She is now hunched over in a wheelchair (completely wheelchair bound) and only has the use of one hand.

 

Modern medicine has gotten so good at prolonging life but still hasn’t figured out how to bring it to a graceful, dignified end (for old age).

[SilverFallsAndrew]

42 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I hope so, while I’m really glad to get this time with my mom, I have been quite envious of the pictures being posted of the northern lights activity.

 

Speaking of my mom, one of the first things that happened when I got to Charleston is we put her on hospice care.  It’s not for end of life stuff, but to try to prolong her time in assisted living.  She currently has a nice “apartment” furnished with her furniture, and it’s on the ground level with a patio.  Her next step is a nursing home.  Very sad situation.  

 

Take care of yourselves boys and girls. As my mom got older, she thought her ailments would magically fix themselves, and did not take things like exercise and physical therapy seriously.  She is now hunched over in a wheelchair (completely wheelchair bound) and only has the use of one hand.

 

Modern medicine has gotten so good at prolonging life but still hasn’t figured out how to bring it to a graceful, dignified end (for old age).

Sorry to hear. My wife worked at a nursing home for years and talks about how tough it is to see people age. 
 

[Front Ranger]

Gotta hand it to the GFS. It's been on top of the trends with Milton ahead of most the other models, including the hurricane specific ones.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

Gotta hand it to the GFS. It's been on top of the trends with Milton ahead of most the other models, including the hurricane specific ones.

American PRIDE.

[the_convergence_zone]

44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Gotta hand it to the GFS. It's been on top of the trends with Milton ahead of most the other models, including the hurricane specific ones.

HAFS-B has also been incredible…using similar physics to the GFS, the same dynamical core, and GFS boundary conditions. 

[Chewbacca Defense]

I have to say when I went out to the car this morning, it actually felt chilly, it was about 65.  I am going to freeze my butt off when I step off the plane in the PNW tonight.