October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

11 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

I have to say when I went out to the car this morning, it actually felt chilly, it was about 65.  I am going to freeze my butt off when I step off the plane in the PNW tonight.

Currently 48 here! 

[Phishy Wx]

models seemed to do a good job with forecasted weakening of Milton. seems to be playing out

[DeepFriedEgg]

Holy crap Milton is getting absolutely shredded apart

[MossMan]

It’s over. 

[Front Ranger]

35 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

HAFS-B has also been incredible…using similar physics to the GFS, the same dynamical core, and GFS boundary conditions. 

Yeah, but it was still too far north yesterday compared to GFS.

[snow_wizard]

Just saw an article this morning about the PV being the weakest in 40 years thus far.  1980s type winter coming?

[Thermal Trough]

16 hours ago, Omegaraptor said:

When was the last significant Willamette Valley windstorm?

For me, the biggest one I’ve ever experienced here in the PNW was the December 12th 1995 windstorm. I remember they let us out of school early. That’s how serious it was. We’ve had other big windstorms since then but that was still the most powerful one I’ve ever experienced in my life.

 

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

models seemed to do a good job with forecasted weakening of Milton. seems to be playing out

 

20 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Holy crap Milton is getting absolutely shredded apart

All those poor idiots who fled Tampa in fear. When will they learn.

[Tenochtitlan]

I just learned about an index called Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), which measured the integral of the surface wind speeds around a hurricane’s center. 

Two storms with the same max wind speed can have very different IKEs depending on their size. Right now Milton has an IKE of 47. Hurricane Charley had an IKE of only 12 upon landfall in Florida, which explains why its storm surge was so low for its intensity. Katrina’s IKE was something like 120 when it made landfall, despite its winds having slowed by then from its peak.

The NHC thinks Milton’s IKE will rise to 60-70 as its wind field expands due to shear. That’s why people are so worried about its storm surge, and why just looking at which category it is doesn’t tell the whole story.

I’m starting to think the NHC needs a separate category for storm surge.

[MossMan]

4 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

For me, the biggest one I’ve ever experienced here in the PNW was the December 12th 1995 windstorm. I remember they let us out of school early. That’s how serious it was. We’ve had other big windstorms since then but that was still the most powerful one I’ve ever experienced in my life.

 

That was a fun one up here as well! My dad and I watched from the garage the constant flashes in the sky from all of the breakers/fuses popping on the power lines. It was a great time! 

[DeepFriedEgg]

5 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

I just learned about an index called Integrated Kinetic Energy (IKE), which measured the integral of the surface wind speeds around a hurricane’s center. 

Two storms with the same max wind speed can have very different IKEs depending on their size. Right now Milton has an IKE of 47. Hurricane Charley had an IKE of only 12 upon landfall in Florida, which explains why its storm surge was so low for its intensity. Katrina’s IKE was something like 120 when it made landfall, despite its winds having slowed by then from its peak.

The NHC thinks Milton’s IKE will rise to 60-70 as its wind field expands due to shear. That’s why people are so worried about its storm surge, and why just looking at which category it is doesn’t tell the whole story.

I’m starting to think the NHC needs a separate category for storm surge.

I agree. I think there should be an official rating that takes into account intensity and size.

[Tenochtitlan]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I agree. I think there should be an official rating that takes into account intensity and size.

I’m just reading that Ian’s IKE when it hit Florida was 47…the same as Milton’s right now. Yikes. And Milton’s wind field is already expanding.

[Doinko]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Big aurora tomorrow night hopefully. Might actually compare to the May show. 

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

For me, the biggest one I’ve ever experienced here in the PNW was the December 12th 1995 windstorm. I remember they let us out of school early. That’s how serious it was. We’ve had other big windstorms since then but that was still the most powerful one I’ve ever experienced in my life.

 

The effects of windstorms are so incredibly localized.  I got serious egg on my face when I was touting this storm at work and it ended up being a dud here.

[High Desert Mathew]

42 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

For me, the biggest one I’ve ever experienced here in the PNW was the December 12th 1995 windstorm. I remember they let us out of school early. That’s how serious it was. We’ve had other big windstorms since then but that was still the most powerful one I’ve ever experienced in my life.

 

Good kite weather

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Doinko said:

Wow!  It's supposed to be clear too.

[snow_wizard]

28 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That was a fun one up here as well! My dad and I watched from the garage the constant flashes in the sky from all of the breakers/fuses popping on the power lines. It was a great time! 

So weird how the Central Puget Sound got shafted on that one.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

There'll be some clouds tommorow night but it should be clear enough for a decent show. Missed out on the fun in May because I was up in alaska, fingers crossed this one isn't a bust.

[the_convergence_zone]

15 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

I agree. I think there should be an official rating that takes into account intensity and size.

There's not an easy way to do that which is why nobody has changed it yet. One look at Milton tells you that it's weaker right now than it was yesterday. And the reason that everybody is taking this storm seriously in the first place is because it reached Cat 5, and even people with their heads under rocks know that 5 = very bad. Same thing with efforts to change the cone -- everybody has a pretty good idea of what the cone means so any major changes to it would mean a massive education effort. 

In my opinion the major reform that is needed is in the NWS watch/warning system. There should be three sets of hurricane-related advisories, one for wind speed, one for storm surge, and one for inland flooding. And given all of the high-res modeling and GIS tools that we have now, people should be able to put in their geo-location and get a simple low/med/high or 1-5 or whatever for each of those three hazards for their location. 

 

[Phishy Wx]

19 minutes ago, Doinko said:

that's from that CME/Flare last night I think

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

There'll be some clouds tommorow night but it should be clear enough for a decent show. Missed out on the fun in May because I was up in alaska, fingers crossed this one isn't a bust.

This won't bust, but it might hit real early thursday morning thus we will miss the peak of the show. 

[Phishy Wx]

55 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just saw an article this morning about the PV being the weakest in 40 years thus far.  1980s type winter coming?

as long as its not 80-81. ugh

[ShawniganLake]

18 hours ago, MossMan said:

That was the first big storm at our current location, we bought the place in the spring of 2018. Our neighbors warned us that when the power goes out here after a large storm to not expect it back for days…They were not kidding. 

It took me awhile to find it but here’s a photo of the blowdown event on Vancouver Island from that storm

 

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This won't bust, but it might hit real early thursday morning thus we will miss the peak of the show. 

according to this board last night a few pages back it was all hype cause some guy on reddit typed in all caps

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Yeah, but it was still too far north yesterday compared to GFS.

intensity models are generally not used of track forecasting.  so in that regards its fine

[SilverFallsAndrew]

What about that idiot who cried on tv?

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

as long as its not 80-81. ugh

Yeah.  One of the all time great turds.  Other than that we had some very real Arctic blasts that decade.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

according to this board last night a few pages back it was all hype cause some guy on reddit typed in all caps

Not hype. It was a huge CME fully earth directed. Going to be the real deal. 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It took me awhile to find it but here’s a photo of the blowdown event on Vancouver Island from that storm

 

The wind had to be hurricane force to do that.

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Not hype. It was a huge CME fully earth directed. Going to be the real deal. 

Let's just hope the timing is right.

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Just saw an article this morning about the PV being the weakest in 40 years thus far.  1980s type winter coming?

I feel like Phil has said before that a weak PV is not necessarily a good thing, although I can't remember exactly what he said.

[High Desert Mathew]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

I feel like Phil has said before that a weak PV is not necessarily a good thing, although I can't remember exactly what he said.

I’d prefer a very strong one at first that gets shredded apart with a SSW and then stays really weak the rest of winter. 

[Phishy Wx]

16 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Not hype. It was a huge CME fully earth directed. Going to be the real deal. 

I agree, this one actually does look to rival the May event

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

I’d prefer a very strong one at first that gets shredded apart with a SSW and then stays really weak the rest of winter. 

Well.  If the 40 year thing is correct that was the mid 1980s and that was the coldest, and one of the blockiest periods I've ever seen.

[Phishy Wx]

[Groundhog]

Here’s the estimated class of solar storm expected to hit tomorrow from last night’s CME.

 

[Phishy Wx]

G4 (Severe) Storm Watch for 10-11 October

published: Wednesday, October 09, 2024 14:44 UTC

A fast coronal mass ejection (CME) erupted from the Sun the evening of 8 October, 2024, and is likely to arrive at Earth on 10 October. This CME has been analyzed and speed estimates are 1200 to 1300 km/s. This makes for a potential arrival time as early as the morning to midday of 10 October EDT. There is potential to reach G4 (Severe) upon arrival of this CME and throughout its passage. We won’t know the characteristics of the CME until it arrives 1 million miles from Earth and its speed and magnetic intensity are measured by the DSCOVR and ACE satellites. Please visit our webpage for the latest information and updates.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

G4 

[MossMan]

36 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

It took me awhile to find it but here’s a photo of the blowdown event on Vancouver Island from that storm

 

Slightly larger than my blowdown.