October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[ShawniganLake]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The wind had to be hurricane force to do that.

Not sure if there was anything official in that area.  But the highest reports I heard were in the 90mph range. 

[High Desert Mathew]

30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well.  If the 40 year thing is correct that was the mid 1980s and that was the coldest, and one of the blockiest periods I've ever seen.

What 40 year thing?

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

What 40 year thing?

That headline I saw that said the PV was the weakest it's been in 40 years at this point.

[Kolk1604]

Weakest polar vortex for October in 40 years could affect winter weather across North America and Europe. The polar vortex forming over the Northern Hemisphere in 2024 is at its weakest point for early October in the last 40 years, with potential consequences for winter weather patterns across North America and Europe

https://watchers.news/2024/10/04/weakest-polar-vortex-for-october-in-40-years-could-affect-winter-weather-across-north-america-and-europe/#:~:text=Atmosphere | Editors' picks-,Weakest polar vortex for October in 40 years could affect,across North America and Europe&text=The polar vortex forming over,across North America and Europe.

 

Note: I just googled it- not familiar with the website. 

 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, Kolk1604 said:

Weakest polar vortex for October in 40 years could affect winter weather across North America and Europe. The polar vortex forming over the Northern Hemisphere in 2024 is at its weakest point for early October in the last 40 years, with potential consequences for winter weather patterns across North America and Europe

https://watchers.news/2024/10/04/weakest-polar-vortex-for-october-in-40-years-could-affect-winter-weather-across-north-america-and-europe/#:~:text=Atmosphere | Editors' picks-,Weakest polar vortex for October in 40 years could affect,across North America and Europe&text=The polar vortex forming over,across North America and Europe.

 

Note: I just googled it- not familiar with the website. 

 

"Watchers News" is Weather News as was Art Bell's Wildcard Line was to fact based journalism. There is some good stuff there, doomer entertainment, and just crazy "DIRECT ENERGY WEAPONS USED BY THE DEMONCRATS TO CONTROL THE HURRICANE TO KILL REPUBLICANS" news.

[the_convergence_zone]

41 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Not sure if there was anything official in that area.  But the highest reports I heard were in the 90mph range. 

It hasn't been well studied but there is a lot of anecdotal evidence for small-scale mountain waves or rotors causing localized bursts of damaging winds during strong windstorms. I've seen a couple of these patches in Olympic NP, they are pretty impressive. Whole groups of old growth all knocked over at the same time. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

It hasn't been well studied but there is a lot of anecdotal evidence for small-scale mountain waves or rotors causing localized bursts of damaging winds during strong windstorms. I've seen a couple of these patches in Olympic NP, they are pretty impressive. Whole groups of old growth all knocked over at the same time. 

The entire olympic peninsula lost power for 36 hours with this event. We couldn't treat patients for 2 days. We had serious mountain waves coming from the south. I measured a gust of 70 mph. It was by far our strongest windstorm here. The waves were wild... huge gust, then calm, then huge gust. Just like a wave. 

[High Desert Mathew]

50 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That headline I saw that said the PV was the weakest it's been in 40 years at this point.

Looks like 66 years according to the article. Wonder if the tanked pna or weak Niña state has something to do with it?

[Snownerd3000]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

I feel like Phil has said before that a weak PV is not necessarily a good thing, although I can't remember exactly what he said.

I'm no Bill Nye but I'd imagine the argument would be for a stronger PV to start with as it helps intensify the cold before the PV weakens and delivers the goods south.  But again, I'm no Bill Nye.

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

I'm no Bill Nye but I'd imagine the argument would be for a stronger PV to start with as it helps intensify the cold before the PV weakens and delivers the goods south.  But again, I'm no Bill Nye.

Snownerd3000 the Science Guy just doesn’t have that ring to it. 

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Doinko said:

@TT-SEA can we get a cloud cast?

[Snownerd3000]

7 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Snownerd3000 the Science Guy just doesn’t have that ring to it. 

Maybe we can bring back "Almost Live!" and I can be a guest.

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Maybe we can bring back "Almost Live!" and I can be a guest.

Best show ever. 

[MossMan]

5 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

Maybe we can bring back "Almost Live!" and I can be a guest.

https://youtu.be/dM0Jynoflzo?si=qnvTEJMuUF4W-Yp_

[Ken in Wood Village]

Just a little update with Milton. Look at all those tornado warnings

[snow_wizard]

33 minutes ago, iFred said:

@TT-SEA can we get a cloud cast?

A lot of clear areas, and a lot have just high clouds which are normally much thinner than this would make it appear.  That strip of low clouds should be taken with a grain of salt IMO.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

That headline I saw that said the PV was the weakest it's been in 40 years at this point.

have a link?

[snow_wizard]

The ECMWF spits out a 55/37 for SEA next Friday.  Pretty chilly if that is correct.  Also some solid cool days this week.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

have a link?

It's posted by someone else a few posts back.

[MossMan]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

have a link?

Scroll up

[Phishy Wx]

Just now, MossMan said:

Scroll up

lol I think that's Propoganda site

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Here's the entire PNW.

[fubario]

54 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Just a little update with Milton. Look at all those tornado warnings

I'm at an absolute loss what is happening in FLA rn. End of world shiit.

[MossMan]

For November and December only…What would you rather have a redux event wise for each of those two months…

November 1985

November 2006

November 2010

December 1990

December 1996

December 2008

December 2021

 

For November I would choose 1985

Runner up 2006

For December I would choose 2008

Runner up 2021

[Deweydog]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For November and December only…What would you rather have a redux event wise for each of those two months…

November 1985

November 2006

November 2010

December 1990

December 1996

December 2008

December 2021

December 2024

 

For November I would choose 1985

Runner up 2006

For December I would choose 2008

Runner up 2021

Fixed

[iFred]

46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot of clear areas, and a lot have just high clouds which are normally much thinner than this would make it appear.  That strip of low clouds should be taken with a grain of salt IMO.

So Darrington, Ross Lake, and somewhere on US2 between Stevens and Index look good.

Man, I wish our ferries ran later.

[iFred]

42 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol I think that's Propoganda site

Anything by a for-profit media conglomerate is a propaganda site. If I started to limit links from collective ran by a proper agitprop, then you and I would be the only people here.

[MossMan]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

Fixed

Well in that case I choose December 2024! 

Hopefully your December prediction outcomes are of a higher verification rate than your MLK Day verification rates…

[Thermal Trough]

4 hours ago, MossMan said:

That was a fun one up here as well! My dad and I watched from the garage the constant flashes in the sky from all of the breakers/fuses popping on the power lines. It was a great time! 

 

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

The effects of windstorms are so incredibly localized.  I got serious egg on my face when I was touting this storm at work and it ended up being a dud here.

 

3 hours ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Good kite weather

The Dec 1995 windstorm was big down here but it doesn’t compare to the Columbus Day Storm.

62 years ago on this day back on Oct. 9, 1962, Typhoon Freda was still in the Western Pacific Ocean. It would arrive 3 days later on Columbus Day giving the PNW its most powerful windstorm to date. 100+ mph wind gusts were seen in SEA and the Willamette Valley. Corvallis got up to 127 mph. Here’s a reanalysis for those who are into windstorms.

 

[Tenochtitlan]

My mom remembers how when she was a kid during the Columbus Day storm, she watched the windows of my grandparents’ house bending in and out in the wind. They lived in NE Seattle at the time. I’ve never seen anything like that before, and it makes me think the gusts in that part of Seattle must have been at least 70-80 mph.

[Cold Snap]

44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For November and December only…What would you rather have a redux event wise for each of those two months…

November 1985

November 2006

November 2010

December 1990

December 1996

December 2008

December 2021

 

For November I would choose 1985

Runner up 2006

For December I would choose 2008

Runner up 2021

I would go with those two as well!

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

This thing is going to hit tampa. 

[Deweydog]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Well in that case I choose December 2024! 

Hopefully your December prediction outcomes are of a higher verification rate than your MLK Day verification rates…

31 chances instead of one!!!

[the_convergence_zone]

1 minute ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This thing is going to hit tampa. 

Running north of track guidance today, but forward speed has slowed to a crawl so it may be starting to turn right. It can't gain much more latitude or Tampa is in big trouble. 

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

lol I think that's Propoganda site

A weak PV doesn't strike me as something that would be propaganda worthy.  

[snow_wizard]

56 minutes ago, MossMan said:

For November and December only…What would you rather have a redux event wise for each of those two months…

November 1985

November 2006

November 2010

December 1990

December 1996

December 2008

December 2021

 

For November I would choose 1985

Runner up 2006

For December I would choose 2008

Runner up 2021

Nov - 1985 hands down! Then 2010

Dec - 1990, 2008, 2021.  1996 was just too sloppy for my taste.

Jan would be 1972...just can't remember enough of 1969.

[snow_wizard]

I'll have to look at the materials I have from January 1880 to see how strong the winds were in NW OR.  Don't have time right this second.

[Phishy Wx]

11 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A weak PV doesn't strike me as something that would be propaganda worthy.  

consider the source

[Phishy Wx]

looks like it headed right for Tampa Bay or just south (Bradenton?)

[Phishy Wx]