October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[umadbro]

Looks like a Sarasota landfall

[fubario]

Watching Ryan Hall. Never seen anything like what's happening with these tornadoes in Fla. It's been playing out for 5+ hours now? And, oh yeah, a cat 3 hurricane coming ashore soon. Sigh

 

https://www.youtube.com/live/d-V_YnmER0Y?si=7Vx1LUJ-Drv16DUX

[Tenochtitlan]

18 minutes ago, fubario said:

Watching Ryan Hall. Never seen anything like what's happening with these tornadoes in Fla. It's been playing out for 5+ hours now? And, oh yeah, a cat 3 hurricane coming ashore soon. Sigh

 

https://www.youtube.com/live/d-V_YnmER0Y?si=7Vx1LUJ-Drv16DUX

Just saw a video of a wedge tornado ripping through a subdivision. Crazy stuff for Florida.

[SnarkyGoblin]

28 ft waves measured inside the hurricane.  I saw a Twitter video inside a stream but can't find the source.

Edit:

 

[Ken in Wood Village]

Looks like Milton is about to make landfall

[TT-SEA]

4 hours ago, iFred said:

@TT-SEA can we get a cloud cast?

Are we talking about tomorrow evening?    This is 11 p.m. Thursday.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

32 minutes ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Looks like Milton is about to make landfall

Tampa survives again. 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Tampa survives again. 

They were saying due to the approach and the expanding wind field the North side of this one is the strongest quadrant

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

3 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

They were saying due to the approach and the expanding wind field the North side of this one is the strongest quadrant

Mostly talking about surge. Winds won't be fun, but 12 foot of surge would destroy downtown. 

[Front Ranger]

Sarasota gusting over 60 mph now. Should go up rapidly from here.

[Front Ranger]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This thing is going to hit tampa. 

 

11 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Tampa survives again. 

Indeed.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

 

Indeed.

Lol. It stalled north momentum right at the last moment. Tampa has a force field. 

[Thermal Trough]

1 hour ago, Ken in Wood Village said:

Looks like Milton is about to make landfall

He’s about to make final approach for landing. Looks like an Anna Maria Island landfall but a wobble could bring it north into Tampa Bay or south around Sarasota.

[bainbridgekid]

I can't remember a hurricane with so little rain in the SE quadrant. The eye wall is approaching Sarasota (between Bradenton and North Port) and yet there's hardly any rain near there. 

[Thermal Trough]

10 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

I can't remember a hurricane with so little rain in the SE quadrant. The eye wall is approaching Sarasota (between Bradenton and North Port) and yet there's hardly any rain near there. 

Me either! Milton has been quite the unique . I’m already hearing reports of  flooding around Tampa.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

Weren't we just on H and now we're on M? I didn't even hear of the I, J, K, or L storms.

[T-Town]

3 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Weren't we just on H and now we're on M? I didn't even hear of the I, J, K, or L storms.

You missed Kip and Lafawnduh?

[Thermal Trough]

Flash flood warning just issued for the Tampa Metro area.

 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

Flash flood warning just issued for the Tampa Metro area.

 

Can't even imagine how a flash flood happens with totally flat ground.  Is the storm surge THAT sudden?

[snow_wizard]

Just heard a press conference with DeSantis.  Talk about a guy who has it all together!

[Phishy Wx]

Models pretty much nailed this on a synoptic level, some mesoscale discrepancies but over all solid 

[Phishy Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Just heard a press conference with DeSantis.  Talk about a guy who has it all together!

LOL

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Weren't we just on H and now we're on M? I didn't even hear of the I, J, K, or L storms.

They were in the middle of the Atlantic brah, pay attention

[bainbridgekid]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't even imagine how a flash flood happens with totally flat ground.  Is the storm surge THAT sudden?

The flash flood warning has nothing to do with the saltwater storm surge. It's from the 1-2" per hour rain rates for 6-10 hours straight. 

[bainbridgekid]

96 mph gust in Sarasota.

[Poulsbo Snowman]

Snowing at Fort Myers. 

 

[Tenochtitlan]

Extreme wind warning in Tampa and Sarasota. Those wind gusts of 90+ are no joke! 

[snow_wizard]

7 minutes ago, bainbridgekid said:

The flash flood warning has nothing to do with the saltwater storm surge. It's from the 1-2" per hour rain rates for 6-10 hours straight. 

When I think of a flash flood I think of going from no water to inundated in a matter of a minute or two.  Maybe this is a little different definition.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, SnarkyGoblin said:

28 ft waves measured inside the hurricane.  I saw a Twitter video inside a stream but can't find the source.

Edit:

 

That stat is actually not that impressive when you consider storms over the NE Pacific easily produce 40 foot seas.  Not to take anything away from this event.

[bainbridgekid]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

When I think of a flash flood I think of going from no water to inundated in a matter of a minute or two.  Maybe this is a little different definition.

Yeah that's the kind that happens in the desert but the definition is more broad than that and includes any rapid rise of freshwater that floods an area. 

[Thermal Trough]

Wild seeing people still out driving in Sarasota. 

 

[Cold Snap]

39 minutes ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

Weren't we just on H and now we're on M? I didn't even hear of the I, J, K, or L storms.

All of those storms went out to sea. Thats why you didn’t hear about them.

[umadbro]

2 hours ago, umadbro said:

Looks like a Sarasota landfall

Nailed it

[Phishy Wx]

 

[BLI snowman]

32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't even imagine how a flash flood happens with totally flat ground.  Is the storm surge THAT sudden?

The 10"+ of rain they're getting in those areas might also have something to do with it....

[BLI snowman]

15 minutes ago, Thermal Trough said:

Wild seeing people still out driving in Sarasota. 

 

Sarasota should dodge the worst of the storm surge at least, being just to the ENE of landfall. Ground zero for the surge will be south towards Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda, which was probably the best case outcome given their size vs. the Tampa and Sarasota metros. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The 10"+ of rain they're getting in those areas might also have something to do with it....

Rain is by far the most damaging threat a tropical storm has to provide yet it is hardly ever mentioned. Usually people will hyperfixate on the intense winds or maybe the storm surge. But never the literal feet of rain those storms can dump on flat land.

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Rain is by far the most damaging threat a tropical storm has to provide yet it is hardly ever mentioned. Usually people will hyperfixate on the intense winds or maybe the storm surge. But never the literal feet of rain those storms can dump on flat land.

No matter what water is always the biggest killer and accounts for over 90% of hurricane deaths. Surge is the deadliest individual component but obviously is dependent on proximity to the coastline and the coastline isn't uniform in population distribution, so fortunately the worst storm surge rarely impacts the most densely populated areas. So yeah, you are indeed more likely to see the worst of the rainfall impact those more densely populated areas a la Houston in Harvey or even Asheville in Helene. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

The crazy thing is this is pretty much a run of the mill cane and people continue to develop on the swamp that is FL.

[snow_wizard]

This trough here is starting to get quite respectable on the models.  GFS shows max temps low to mid 50s for all of week two.