October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Deweydog]

24 minutes ago, iFred said:

I wish I had this kind of confidence in real life.
 

Take enough sips and you can believe anything!

[Tenochtitlan]

Overall my hunch is Milton was about as bad as Irma in Florida. Tampa escaped the worst-case scenario yet again, but surge got fairly bad to the south and there’s plenty of downed trees and wind damage to go around, not to mention the tornadoes. Power outages are up to 2.8 million. 

[The Blob]

1 hour ago, iFred said:

Welcome back. I hope everything is ok, or at least better.

Thanks, been too busy to have enough time in the day for everything.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

46F and partly cloudy. Nice night. Still kinda feels like summer.

[TT-SEA]

6 hours ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Overall my hunch is Milton was about as bad as Irma in Florida. Tampa escaped the worst-case scenario yet again, but surge got fairly bad to the south and there’s plenty of downed trees and wind damage to go around, not to mention the tornadoes. Power outages are up to 2.8 million. 

Seeing coverage from Tampa this morning and its a mess but it doesn't look like it was catastrophic.   They really dodged a bullet.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Seeing coverage from Tampa this morning and its a mess but it doesn't look like it was catastrophic.   They really dodged a bullet.  

They overreacted again. I’m glad my coworkers daughter lives in that area. She did not evacuate and was fine. 

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

They overreacted again. I’m glad my coworkers daughter lives in that area. She did not evacuate and was fine. 

Sort of like a lot of the forest fire evacuations around here in the summer.  People get evacuated all the time but often their houses don’t even burn down. Total overreaction 

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Sort of like a lot of the forest fire evacuations around here in the summer.  People get evacuated all the time but often their houses don’t even burn down. Total overreaction 

So true... if you are going to get evacuated at the very least your house should be destroyed.   Very disappointing! 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Sort of like a lot of the forest fire evacuations around here in the summer.  People get evacuated all the time but often their houses don’t even burn down. Total overreaction 

Now that I have a generator I probably wouldn't evacuate due to a fire. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

First snow of the year at Fairbanks, AK. 

[MossMan]

Had .29” of surprise rain last evening. 
.89” for the month so far. 
Currently 42 degrees. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Clear and 41 currently. Yesterday had a midnight high of 59, was in the low 50s by afternoon, and had a low of 45 at 11:59.

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like we might finally get a decently chilly trough slide through later next week along with some rain.  Overall the generally mild benign weather continues until then.  

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[iFred]

8 hours ago, Deweydog said:

Take enough sips and you can believe anything!

   

[LowerGarfield]

8 hours ago, Cold Snap said:

Some guy who calls himself Lieutenant Dan is riding out the hurricane in his boat lmao. Absolutely crazy of him to do but it looks like he made it through the worst of it!

I saw something saying that he is a con artist and was offered protection.

[iFred]

33 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First snow of the year at Fairbanks, AK. 

Did they evacuate?

[Skagit Weather]

Dropped to 40F this morning--coldest temperatures of the season so far. Maybe we'll even sneak into the 30s one of these days.

[ShawniganLake]

39F here.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, iFred said:

Did they evacuate?

NO

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

So true... if you are going to get evacuated at the very least your house should be destroyed.   Very disappointing! 

I would never evacuate just to prove to the coroner and my next of kin that im not a sheep. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Just now, T-Town said:

I would never evacuate just to prove to the coroner and my next of kin that im not a sheep. 

If I was in the storm surge zone or in a home surrounded by tall trees I would be out of there, otherwise, no need. 

 

[the_convergence_zone]

6 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

If I was in the storm surge zone or in a home surrounded by tall trees I would be out of there, otherwise, no need. 

 

If you're not in a storm surge evacuation zone then you should not evacuate (unless you're vulnerable in some other way due to health, etc.). Otherwise you're just clogging up the roads for the people who need to get out. 

As for the storm, there was a 10 ft surge observation near south of Sarasota and there haven't been any photos yet from that area. I expect that the areas immediately south of landfall did not have a fun time. 

[T-Town]

52/62 yesterday and a nice sunny start today. Looks like a nice weekend before fall arrives in earnest next week. 

[Tenochtitlan]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Seeing coverage from Tampa this morning and its a mess but it doesn't look like it was catastrophic.   They really dodged a bullet.  

Yeah, exactly. A lot of wind damage, but the surge in Tampa itself was nowhere near what was initially feared.

Hopefully Milton and Helene have been wake-up calls for Tampans, and more people will take future hurricane threats there seriously.

[iFred]

3 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Yeah, exactly. A lot of wind damage, but the surge in Tampa itself was nowhere near what was initially feared.

Hopefully Milton and Helene have been wake-up calls for Tampans, and more people will take future hurricane threats there seriously.

I'm pretty sure they already do.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

46F and partly cloudy. Nice night. Still kinda feels like summer.

46 is summer?  Didn't you say your high was 65 yesterday?  We can only dream of such cool weather in the summer.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Skagit Weather said:

Dropped to 40F this morning--coldest temperatures of the season so far. Maybe we'll even sneak into the 30s one of these days.

Interesting.  It dropped to 44 here, but I've had two lows in the upper 30s already.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Cloud forecasts for tonight please

[the_convergence_zone]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Cloud forecasts for tonight please

 

 

 

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Cloud forecasts for tonight please

The high clouds usually aren't as solid as these maps make it look, and the low clouds east of Puget Sound are pretty suspect IMO.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

 

 

 

Do not love.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

The CME shockwave hit and it is stronger than May. Aurora oval is building. Hope it holds and clouds f*&k off. 

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

The CME shockwave hit and it is stronger than May. Aurora oval is building. Hope it holds and clouds f*&k off. 

A bit early.  Hope it doesn't fizzle before night fall.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Do not love.

Not as bad as it looks.  Often times those high clouds are so thin you can barely see them.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

2 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A bit early.  Hope it doesn't fizzle before night fall.

May event hit in the morning as well. 

[Tenochtitlan]

30 minutes ago, iFred said:

I'm pretty sure they already do.

Probably most do, but I’ve seen plenty of comments on Reddit from those who don’t (or didn’t).

[Tenochtitlan]

People on American Weather Forums are making the argument that Milton caused the most intense tornado outbreak ever in terms of tornadoes/area in a short amount of time. One poster’s account of the day:

”Unfortunately I happened to be right in the middle of it yesterday as I evacuated from my home in St Pete and drove my family across to Stuart on the east coast. A three and a half hour drive turned into a 7-hour drive of dodging tornadoes. Our phones were buzzing constantly with tornado warnings, we came upon fresh tornado damage in multiple locations, saw home debris falling from the sky 100 yards from our car, power poles snapped in half laying on the highway, demolished homes, a destroyed gas station, etc. Felt like I was in the movie twister, it was absolutely insane.”

[Rubus Leucodermis]

[Chewbacca Defense]

45 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A bit early.  Hope it doesn't fizzle before night fall.

Just read a FB post from a guy who seemed to be legit knowledgeable on the topic, and he said it was *unlikely* to last until our nightfall due to the speed it is moving.  He said the fast moving storms (like this one) don't last very long.  Of course he also said come nightfall to GOLU, but to do it right after dusk because there are always exceptions.