October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[the_convergence_zone]

Florida homes tend to hold up well to wind thanks to their building codes (they were even surviving the tornadoes yesterday), but from a cost/insurance perspective this type of damage in Bradenton is pretty bad:

https://x.com/severeforecast/status/1844412011112955914

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Florida homes tend to hold up well to wind thanks to their building codes (they were even surviving the tornadoes yesterday), but from a cost/insurance perspective this type of damage in Bradenton is pretty bad:

https://x.com/severeforecast/status/1844412011112955914

That's a whole lot of damage.

[Tenochtitlan]

9 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Florida homes tend to hold up well to wind thanks to their building codes (they were even surviving the tornadoes yesterday), but from a cost/insurance perspective this type of damage in Bradenton is pretty bad:

https://x.com/severeforecast/status/1844412011112955914

Wow, yeah that’s quite the mess. I also saw that the roof of the Tropicana stadium in Tampa was completely ripped off. 

[snow_wizard]

For people who think hurricanes and typhoons are stronger now than they used to be, you will be shocked by this.  Out of the 42 strongest Pacific typhoons from 1950 to present, only 4 of those were in the 21st century.  Strength was measured by lowest barometric pressure.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

Wow, yeah that’s quite the mess. I also saw that the roof of the Tropicana stadium in Tampa was completely ripped off. 

That roof looked pretty chintzy though. 

[snow_wizard]

Another pretty GFS run.

[the_convergence_zone]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That roof looked pretty chintzy though. 

Yeah it was basically a tarp roof. Likely rated for the winds it experienced, but that stadium is old so the material was probably compromised. Or it got punctured by debris and failed from there. 

In general it sounds like less surge, stronger wind and inland flooding than expected. Nasty sting jet from the extratropical transition, it was the back side that was especially strong. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

31 minutes ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just read a FB post from a guy who seemed to be legit knowledgeable on the topic, and he said it was *unlikely* to last until our nightfall due to the speed it is moving.  He said the fast moving storms (like this one) don't last very long.  Of course he also said come nightfall to GOLU, but to do it right after dusk because there are always exceptions.

There is also another CME potentially behind it. 

[Deweydog]

35 here this morning

[Tenochtitlan]

35 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That roof looked pretty chintzy though. 

Apparently it was made of fiberglass. But yeah they should have made it able to withstand 80-90 mph gusts. 

Edit: not just fiberglass, but Teflon-coated fiberglass! It was supposedly rated for 110 mph, but it must have degraded over time or not been built well in the first place. 

[Tenochtitlan]

It’s inspiring reading the Asheville subreddit. Lots of community supporting community, and they‘re already rebuilding the damaged/destroyed water lines!

[Tenochtitlan]

23 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

35 here this morning

45 at the closest station to me (Lloyd Center). Starting to get autumnal! 

[Deweydog]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For people who think hurricanes and typhoons are stronger now than they used to be, you will be shocked by this.  Out of the 42 strongest Pacific typhoons from 1950 to present, only 4 of those were in the 21st century.  Strength was measured by lowest barometric pressure.

I’ve always wondered about the reliability of pressure readings prior to the late 20th century. Lots of educated guesses. 

[Tenochtitlan]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

For people who think hurricanes and typhoons are stronger now than they used to be, you will be shocked by this.  Out of the 42 strongest Pacific typhoons from 1950 to present, only 4 of those were in the 21st century.  Strength was measured by lowest barometric pressure.

One thing is it seems like powerful hurricane landfalls are more common nowadays. Over the past decade, we have seen many more hurricanes that intensify up to landfall than we used to. The three strongest landfalling tropical cyclones by windspeed have all been in the past 11 years (typhoons Meranti, Haiyan, and Goni).

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

People on American Weather Forums are making the argument that Milton caused the most intense tornado outbreak ever in terms of tornadoes/area in a short amount of time. One poster’s account of the day:

”Unfortunately I happened to be right in the middle of it yesterday as I evacuated from my home in St Pete and drove my family across to Stuart on the east coast. A three and a half hour drive turned into a 7-hour drive of dodging tornadoes. Our phones were buzzing constantly with tornado warnings, we came upon fresh tornado damage in multiple locations, saw home debris falling from the sky 100 yards from our car, power poles snapped in half laying on the highway, demolished homes, a destroyed gas station, etc. Felt like I was in the movie twister, it was absolutely insane.”

What are they saying about the cool down in the last half of the month?

[iFred]

Going to Ross Lake tonight for the aurora.

[Tenochtitlan]

2 minutes ago, iFred said:

What are they saying about the cool down in the last half of the month?

They’re saying it might snow two feet in Shawnigan Lake.

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

35 here this morning

Wow!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

56F and a nice morning. Looks like the sun is trying to get through the clouds.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, Chewbacca Defense said:

Just read a FB post from a guy who seemed to be legit knowledgeable on the topic, and he said it was *unlikely* to last until our nightfall due to the speed it is moving.  He said the fast moving storms (like this one) don't last very long.  Of course he also said come nightfall to GOLU, but to do it right after dusk because there are always exceptions.

The same thought crossed my mind earlier.  Too bad if it doesn't work out.

[ShawniganLake]

54 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

They’re saying it might snow two feet in Shawnigan Lake.

 

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

One thing is it seems like powerful hurricane landfalls are more common nowadays. Over the past decade, we have seen many more hurricanes that intensify up to landfall than we used to. The three strongest landfalling tropical cyclones by windspeed have all been in the past 11 years (typhoons Meranti, Haiyan, and Goni).

There’s a reason insurance companies are fleeing Florida. 

[ShawniganLake]

Fall leaf Color seems to be pretty lame so far.  A lot of the maples are pretty close to being bare and it’s been mostly just brown with a bit of yellow.  
 

There was a nice frosty stretch of weather around this time as recently as 2019. 

[Phishy Wx]

6 hours ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

First snow of the year at Fairbanks, AK. 

seems late

[seattleweatherguy]

2 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

For people who think hurricanes and typhoons are stronger now than they used to be, you will be shocked by this.  Out of the 42 strongest Pacific typhoons from 1950 to present, only 4 of those were in the 21st century.  Strength was measured by lowest barometric pressure.

Wow 

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fall leaf Color seems to be pretty lame so far.  A lot of the maples are pretty close to being bare and it’s been mostly just brown with a bit of yellow.  
 

There was a nice frosty stretch of weather around this time as recently as 2019. 

Warm/dry falls like this one tend to suck for color. Not surprising unfortunately.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, Deweydog said:

I’ve always wondered about the reliability of pressure readings prior to the late 20th century. Lots of educated guesses. 

I know they flew into Tip which is the strongest of all time.  Not sure about some of the others.

As an aside I found out the Philippine name of that storm was Warling.  Sounds really cool to me at least.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Warm/dry falls like this one tend to suck for color. Not surprising unfortunately.

Yeah....this one is awful and it's actually been somewhat cool and not all that dry up this way.  The real shock to me was seeing the color in Central WA last weekend.  Horrendous by their standards.

[snow_wizard]

48 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Fall leaf Color seems to be pretty lame so far.  A lot of the maples are pretty close to being bare and it’s been mostly just brown with a bit of yellow.  
 

There was a nice frosty stretch of weather around this time as recently as 2019. 

I've seen some maples that look they had dirty water sprayed on them which dried.  Gross.

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

There is also another CME potentially behind it. 

Yeah, and last time people thought things were over when Bz dropped before hand. I'm still confident in May level lights.

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, iFred said:

Yeah, and last time people thought things were over when Bz dropped before hand. I'm still confident in May level lights.

I'm uncomfortable with how early in the day this thing hit.  Seen it happen before, and it often turns out badly.

[iFred]

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm uncomfortable with how early in the day this thing hit.  Seen it happen before, and it often turns out badly.

I think that was the plot of Knowing. At least Nic Cage got to see his family one last time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Kp index now up to 8.3. Highest since last May.

[SnowWillarrive]

57 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Warm/dry falls like this one tend to suck for color. Not surprising unfortunately.

The weather is too warm. Although I thought cold Octobers was not good for winter. 

[Deweydog]

Walter’s taking advantage of the dry fall creek levels to try and convince us he’s a water dog.

[Tenochtitlan]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I'm uncomfortable with how early in the day this thing hit.  Seen it happen before, and it often turns out badly.

I’m still so happy with the May aurora, I won’t mind if I can’t see this one. Seeing the northern lights in downtown Portland must be a once in twenty years type of event. 

[BLI snowman]

30 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The weather is too warm. Although I thought cold Octobers was not good for winter. 

Phil will be with you shortly.

[snow_wizard]

Incredible, crisp, north wind kind of day with temps still below 60.

[T-Town]

28 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Walter’s taking advantage of the dry fall creek levels to try and convince us he’s a water dog.

We’ve had four dogs and they’ve all hated water. Including our lab/shepherd mix. Bad parenting I guess. 

[snow_wizard]

37 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

The weather is too warm. Although I thought cold Octobers was not good for winter. 

Usually a couple of lows in the 30s is enough to do the trick, which we have had.  Not really sure what messed it up this year.  BTW October 1949 was the coldest of the 20th century....