October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

8 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Phil will be with you shortly.

The cold October being bad thing has gone a bit too far on this forum.  Many of our great ones had cold Octobers before them.

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, T-Town said:

We’ve had four dogs and they’ve all hated water. Including our lab/shepherd mix. Bad parenting I guess. 

Dewey was our first and he would have lived in the water if we allowed it. 0-fer since. I blame social media. 

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

seems late

Looks like average first snow there is 10/1. Not unusual to wait until at least 10/10. After 10/15 is pretty unusual. 

[Front Ranger]

Saw this today and it reminded me of our northern friends on here. At first, I thought it said Cascadia...

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold October being bad thing has gone a bit too far on this forum.  Many of our great ones had cold Octobers before them.

I'm with Phil in that there isn't any predictive value either way. Certainly it's true that many of our colder winters also had cold in October.

[High Desert Mathew]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The cold October being bad thing has gone a bit too far on this forum.  Many of our great ones had cold Octobers before them.

Good thing it hasn’t been cold by any means. Nor wet. Wet is what we neeeedddd!!!!!

[snow_wizard]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm with Phil in that there isn't any predictive value either way. Certainly it's true that many of our colder winters also had cold in October.

I think context has a lot to do with it.  With cold or neutral ENSO cold Octobers seem to work out a lot better.  Arctic air in October with a Nino is often a very bad sign.  1991 and 2002 being great examples.

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

Good thing it hasn’t been cold by any means. Nor wet. Wet is what we neeeedddd!!!!!

It's really trying hard some places west of the Cascades, but a lot of places keep falling short on precip.  Certainly running below IMBY the past several weeks. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

I did a Winter forecast if anyone is interested. I'm pretty neutral on the PNW this year. I think that big heat dome in Phoenix over the Summer and early Fall even out the chances on what would otherwise be a cold forecast

[the_convergence_zone]

https://x.com/landon_wx/status/1844502774329000250

[Front Ranger]

17 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I'm with Phil in that there isn't any predictive value either way. Certainly it's true that many of our colder winters also had cold in October.

 

14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think context has a lot to do with it.  With cold or neutral ENSO cold Octobers seem to work out a lot better.  Arctic air in October with a Nino is often a very bad sign.  1991 and 2002 being great examples.

There's also a distinction between wet falls/cold falls, ENSO state, and top tier wet months/falls correlation as opposed to just basic overall coefficients.

The phunny thing is, Phil made up his mind about fall pattens not being a predictor of winter patterns in the PNW long before he ran any statistical analysis. And he has previously said there is a correlation, but it's moot when you remove ENSO. But his most recent correlation stats didn't even account for ENSO. Inconsistent. 

He's basically said the same thing about the PDO, despite several members pointing out that the PDO phase clearly is not just a simple reflection of ENSO. As we can see from its recently tanked state despite going through a big Nino.

Phil has also repeatedly cited his own seasonal correlations over the years for his area, though when someone pointed out the irony of this recently, he copped out with a "just kidding".

[StormchaserChuck1]

This October's H5 pattern matches the PDO almost perfectly. In August, I said Oct could be +EPO because of the really strong -PDO. It was also possible that the NAO would be negative this Oct because of how +epo/-pna has been correlating with that.  I'd look at PDO analogs going forward.. not to say that the water temps are doing anything, but they may be part of a pattern. 

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I'd look at PDO analogs going forward.. not to say that the water temps are doing anything, but they may be part of a pattern. 

Exactly. And if existing dominant patterns can be used to some extent to predict future patterns, then seasonal correlations are not made up voodoo. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

9 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Exactly. And if existing dominant patterns can be used to some extent to predict future patterns, then seasonal correlations are not made up voodoo. 

Here in the east, my 2 best Winters both had snow in October (which is rare). In 2013, I wasn't here, but that was another year where the cold Winter upcoming showed itself in October. The correlation is pretty high on the Pacific side.  A lot of warm Winters lately have had warm October's.  PDO's highest correlation month of the year for CONUS temps is October. 

[Low Dew point]

Score!

 

[Phishy Wx]

east coast already getting it and its not even completely dark yet

 

 

 

[ShawniganLake]

Calgary is currently enjoying their longest stretch of above freezing weather in history. 
 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

ITS COMING!

[seattleweatherguy]

16 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Score!

 

Excellent 

[StormchaserChuck1]

I HAVE PINK NORTHERN LIGHTS!  First time ever seeing it. 

[Phishy Wx]

Visible in NYC

 

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I HAVE PINK NORTHERN LIGHTS!  First time ever seeing it. 

Welcome to the club

[Phishy Wx]

Nuts

 

 

[Phishy Wx]

 

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Some photos

[iFred]

Will be at Ross Lake around 9pm until 1am or later depending on the storm. If folks want to join in on this meet up, I'll probably have energy drinks and snacks.

[Phishy Wx]

this ones a biggie

 

getting pics from family in SC

[High Desert Mathew]

9 minutes ago, iFred said:

Will be at Ross Lake around 9pm until 1am or later depending on the storm. If folks want to join in on this meet up, I'll probably have energy drinks and snacks.

Brewskies and the dome will show up.

[Phishy Wx]

The freakin' Bahamas

 

 

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Here's one with the moon.. they were moving south, but dimmed out right overhead so I may have been just far enough north

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Kp up to 8.7 now. And it’s mostly clear out there. C’mon!

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Kp up to 8.7 now. And it’s mostly clear out there. C’mon!

Kinda worried about high clouds spoiling the fun. 

[Thermal Trough]

39 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Calgary is currently enjoying their longest stretch of above freezing weather in history. 
 

 

Downtown Portland snow totals the following winters:

1) 2024-25: TBD

2) 2023-24: 1.6”

3) 1940-41: T

4) 1963-64: T

5) 2020-21: 7.6”

6) 1938-39: 6.0”

7) 2013-14: 8.0”

7) 1952-53: T

9) 2011-12: 4.4”

10) 1998-99: 2.5”

10) 1908-09: 15.8”

Average: 4.59”

Hoping for a 1908-09 Winter!

[Phil]

I’m in an urban area now so the aurora isn’t as visible as May 10th, but can still see it with the naked eye. Impressive.

View from my balcony on the 29th floor.

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, Phil said:

I’m in an urban area now so Aurora isn’t as visible as May 10th, but can still see it with the naked eye. Impressive.

View from my balcony on the 29th floor.

You have a great spot to take lightning photos if a real thunderstorm season ever comes

[Phil]

All this geomagnetic activity is bad news if you were hoping for a cold, blocky winter though.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, Phil said:

Terrible if you want a cold, blocky winter though.

NAO definitely turning positive for the 2nd time after northern lights. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

We gonna see the Aurora? I’ll be at the river camp tonight. 

[snow_wizard]

Kp is still almost 9.  We might get to see it.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

12 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

NAO definitely turning positive for the 2nd time after northern lights. 

Winter cancel