October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter cancel 

Maybe not a direct correlation, but it will be interesting to observe the effects, if we can see something.. I was always taught that the northern lights would never make it south of Canada. 2003 was apparently record breaking, and they only made it to Toronto. 

[Groundhog]

G5 conditions possible. Judging by what’s posted, perhaps it’s happening.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Phil said:

All this geomagnetic activity is bad news if you were hoping for a cold, blocky winter though.

The late 1980s were a big exception to that rule though.  1988-89 and 1990-91 both had extreme blocking.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

The late 1980s were a big exception to that rule though.  1988-89 and 1990-91 both had extreme blocking.

In the north Pacific?

[StormchaserChuck1]

Here's cold season solar cycle correlation for all years since 1948

[snow_wizard]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

In the north Pacific?

Yes.  Particularly Feb 1989 and Dec 1990.  Two of the most extreme Arctic blasts I have witnessed during close to solar max.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Here's cold season solar cycle correlation for all years since 1948

You certainly pulled that up quick!

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, snow_wizard said:

Yes.  Particularly Feb 1989 and Dec 1990.  Two of the most extreme Arctic blasts I have witnessed during close to solar max.

I don't think the PNA is too effected, but we are on a top data point here so it will be interesting to see how it unfolds.

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yes.  Particularly Feb 1989 and Dec 1990.  Two of the most extreme Arctic blasts I have witnessed during close to solar max.

I think his point is more about the NAO/AO. I agree that we can see some -EPO periods this Winter (it has been correlating with +nao's for the last 11-17 Winter's)

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

16 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Kp is still almost 9.  We might get to see it.

Lol the scale is close to pegged. I’m pretty sure we will be able to see it tonight. Some high clouds but shouldn’t be enough to completely block it out. 

[Deweydog]

If it’s gonna KILL winter, it better be bright!

[Wetsnowlover]

Snow levels are gonna be quite low next week. Places like Paradise and even Stevens Pass are likely to see their first accumulating snow of the season. I'm hyped. I'm eager for winter to start and mountain snow to start piling up!

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

If it’s gonna KILL winter, it better be bright!

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

[Phishy Wx]

LOL

 

 

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Get ready everyone. Tonight will be epic.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

37 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m in an urban area now so the aurora isn’t as visible as May 10th, but can still see it with the naked eye. Impressive.

View from my balcony on the 29th floor.

The storm is charging. Just wait.

[iFred]

Don’t worry Jim, I’ve got you.

 

 

ANYONE ROOTING FOR AURORA IS ROOTING FOR THE DEATH OF OUR WINTER AND WILL BE BANNED. 

[Front Ranger]

No visible northern lights here.

[snow_wizard]

Pretty darn clear out there.  Only made 59 today in spite of all of the sunshine.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, Front Ranger said:

No visible northern lights here.

Hasn't shown up again here yet either. 

[snow_wizard]

11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

I think the theory stems from the fact regimes were very blocky during the little ice age.  Very possibly due to 2 solar grand minimums.  

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Calm down everyone. Storm is charging. It is going to explode.

[StormchaserChuck1]

39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

13-14 was very +NAO.. almost +2. There is almost no correlation on data over the N. Pacific and in the EPO domain.. I think they are referring to the NAO/AO. Pacific patterns happen further south. 

I don't know why a higher solar cycle would lead to colder weather over Greenland and the Arctic circle though..  maybe lower defenses to space (10mb vortex)?

[Low Dew point]

While we wait for dark here’s a pic of some of my snails having a get together.  
 

pretty off topic, hUh?

[Phishy Wx]

already out and the sun isn't all the way down

 

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Calm down everyone. Storm is charging. It is going to explode.

Are you able to track the KP Index and be able to tell if another CME is coming? Im obviously not familiar with how it’s tracked or how to tell what kind of time frame it could possibly become more visible. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, TacomaWx said:

Are you able to track the KP Index and be able to tell if another CME is coming? Im obviously not familiar with how it’s tracked or how to tell what kind of time frame it could possibly become more visible. 

Someone said it's good for another 4 hours. 

[Deweydog]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

I agree, it’s always felt pretty flimsy either way.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

13-14 was very +NAO.. almost +2. There is almost no correlation on data over the N. Pacific and in the EPO domain.. I think they are referring to the NAO/AO. Pacific patterns happen further south. 

I don't know why a higher solar cycle would lead to colder weather over Greenland and the Arctic circle though..  maybe lower defenses to space?

My comment is really just kind of a joke, I’m honestly not too educated on the subject of high latitude blocking and it’s correlation to solar activity. 

[Phishy Wx]

gunna get good I think

[Front Ranger]

18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

 

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the theory stems from the fact regimes were very blocky during the little ice age.  Very possibly due to 2 solar grand minimums.  

FWIW, overall solar activity has been notably lower since 2006 (much lower than previous couple cycles), and winter blocking has been more pronounced since. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

10mb correlation to Solar Cycle flux

[iFred]

7 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

While we wait for dark here’s a pic of some of my snails having a get together.  
 

pretty off topic, hUh?

What does this have to do with your views on hurricanes impacting Floridians in the gulf? If nothing, then it’s off topic.

[iFred]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My comment is really just kind of a joke, I’m honestly not too educated on the subject of high latitude blocking and it’s correlation to solar activity. 

It’s weak.

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

It’s weak.

2024 has been the most +NAO so far of every year since 2017, in some cases by a good margin.. something else causing it? 

[SpaceRace22]

Ugh, super cloudy here. Stubborn pocket of low clouds hanging around the areas east of Redmond and up the Cascade foothills just in King County. I can see it's clear to the west. Might have to go drive somewhere if it comes out big later.

[Mercurial]

Look up!

[iFred]

Sorry Jim.

 

 

[antipex]

Straight overhead in Spokane easily visible!

[SpaceRace22]

This little pocket of low clouds is gonna make me lose it, RRRRREEEEEEEEEEEEEEE