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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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Just now, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Winter cancel 

Maybe not a direct correlation, but it will be interesting to observe the effects, if we can see something.. I was always taught that the northern lights would never make it south of Canada. 2003 was apparently record breaking, and they only made it to Toronto. 

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15 minutes ago, Phil said:

All this geomagnetic activity is bad news if you were hoping for a cold, blocky winter though.

The late 1980s were a big exception to that rule though.  1988-89 and 1990-91 both had extreme blocking.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

In the north Pacific?

1.png.295aa8d66a422173f5acae5a5ccf53a7.png

Yes.  Particularly Feb 1989 and Dec 1990.  Two of the most extreme Arctic blasts I have witnessed during close to solar max.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Here's cold season solar cycle correlation for all years since 1948

1A.gif.d2bd752ddfa3dd963c92cd72406e2454.gif

You certainly pulled that up quick!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yes.  Particularly Feb 1989 and Dec 1990.  Two of the most extreme Arctic blasts I have witnessed during close to solar max.

I think his point is more about the NAO/AO. I agree that we can see some -EPO periods this Winter (it has been correlating with +nao's for the last 11-17 Winter's)

1.png.df7253608be7a4b4be5d4d9e0a5c85d4.png

1.png.0614c9fb754df1a2614686aec27cafe7.png

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Snow levels are gonna be quite low next week. Places like Paradise and even Stevens Pass are likely to see their first accumulating snow of the season. I'm hyped. I'm eager for winter to start and mountain snow to start piling up!

 

Screenshot_20241010_184215_Chrome.jpg

  • Snow 1
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1 minute ago, Deweydog said:

If it’s gonna KILL winter, it better be bright!

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

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37 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m in an urban area now so the aurora isn’t as visible as May 10th, but can still see it with the naked eye. Impressive.

View from my balcony on the 29th floor.

IMG_9347.jpegIMG_9346.jpeg

The storm is charging. Just wait.

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Pretty darn clear out there.  Only made 59 today in spite of all of the sunshine.

  • Shivering 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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11 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

I think the theory stems from the fact regimes were very blocky during the little ice age.  Very possibly due to 2 solar grand minimums.  

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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39 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

13-14 was very +NAO.. almost +2. There is almost no correlation on data over the N. Pacific and in the EPO domain.. I think they are referring to the NAO/AO. Pacific patterns happen further south. 

I don't know why a higher solar cycle would lead to colder weather over Greenland and the Arctic circle though..  maybe lower defenses to space (10mb vortex)?

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2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Calm down everyone. Storm is charging. It is going to explode.

Are you able to track the KP Index and be able to tell if another CME is coming? Im obviously not familiar with how it’s tracked or how to tell what kind of time frame it could possibly become more visible. 

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18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

I agree, it’s always felt pretty flimsy either way.

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

13-14 was very +NAO.. almost +2. There is almost no correlation on data over the N. Pacific and in the EPO domain.. I think they are referring to the NAO/AO. Pacific patterns happen further south. 

I don't know why a higher solar cycle would lead to colder weather over Greenland and the Arctic circle though..  maybe lower defenses to space?

My comment is really just kind of a joke, I’m honestly not too educated on the subject of high latitude blocking and it’s correlation to solar activity. 

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18 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Not sure if I totally buy the whole solar thing…the last solar maximum occurred in 2013. Didn’t stop December 2013 and February 2014 and an overall blocky dry winter. 

 

5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the theory stems from the fact regimes were very blocky during the little ice age.  Very possibly due to 2 solar grand minimums.  

FWIW, overall solar activity has been notably lower since 2006 (much lower than previous couple cycles), and winter blocking has been more pronounced since. 

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A forum for the end of the world.

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7 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

While we wait for dark here’s a pic of some of my snails having a get together.  
 

pretty off topic, hUh?

IMG_0939.jpeg

What does this have to do with your views on hurricanes impacting Floridians in the gulf? If nothing, then it’s off topic.

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4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

My comment is really just kind of a joke, I’m honestly not too educated on the subject of high latitude blocking and it’s correlation to solar activity. 

It’s weak.

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Ugh, super cloudy here. Stubborn pocket of low clouds hanging around the areas east of Redmond and up the Cascade foothills just in King County. I can see it's clear to the west. Might have to go drive somewhere if it comes out big later.

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