October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Tenochtitlan said:

Did you see them in May? That was really impressive even down here, I could see them moving and shifting in the sky. 

Yeah.  That was a good display.  Had amazing stuff right overhead.  

[ShawniganLake]

15 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Wow, that’s impressive. I can sort of picture that happening because the Strait of Georgia is quite shallow in places. Wonder when the last time was that those bays froze.

I believe ‘69 was the last time Shawnigan lake completely froze over.  Hasn’t happened in my lifetime. 90-91 got kind of close but there was plenty of open water in the middle of the lake. 

[High Desert Mathew]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't think of an October that had a setup like this in a neutral or cold ENSO year where the following winter wasn't good.

Cold neutral to almost weak La Niña. Perfect. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Can't think of an October that had a setup like this in a neutral or cold ENSO year where the following winter wasn't good.

I have a good feeling about this winter too, but a late October cold snap isnt going to be the reason I think it’ll be good though. IMO I don’t think it means much. 

[Phishy Wx]

7 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I have a good feeling about this winter too, but a late October cold snap isnt going to be the reason I think it’ll be good though. IMO I don’t think it means much. 

Late Oct is deep enough I think to not matter that much.  Its the late Sept/early Oct snow/cold here in E WA that seems to be a bad signal

[ShawniganLake]

Looks like a reload on the GFS.  Euro AI says the block will be right overhead.  

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

I have a good feeling about this winter too, but a late October cold snap isnt going to be the reason I think it’ll be good though. IMO I don’t think it means much. 

Whatever.  Just saying I can't think of a year that had that configuration in a neutral or cold ENSO season where the winter wasn't good.  If you can find one please share.

[snow_wizard]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Late Oct is deep enough I think to not matter that much.  Its the late Sept/early Oct snow/cold here in E WA that seems to be a bad signal

Those are very often with warm ENSO.  Big cold waves in Nino Octobers are toxic.  1991 and 2002 are a couple of examples.  Bottom of the barrel turds.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Looks like a reload on the GFS.  Euro AI says the block will be right overhead.  

On the other hand the AI has had many great runs this week.  The 0z EPS was very good.  EPO and PNA both -2 or lower in week two.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

9 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Whatever.  Just saying I can't think of a year that had that configuration in a neutral or cold ENSO season where the winter wasn't good.  If you can find one please share.

You don’t have to take someone disagreeing with you personally it’s not that serious. I just don’t see a correlation between October weather and its bearing on what’ll happen later in the winter…as well as many other theories floated around here. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

You don’t have to take someone disagreeing with you personally it’s not that serious. I just don’t see a correlation between October weather and its bearing on what’ll happen later in the winter…as well as many other theories floated around here. 

Fair enough.  I was thinking about something you said in the previous post.  The winter wouldn't end up good because that happens (if it does).  That happening in October is just a sign we are on the right track IMO.

[Deweydog]

In a rapidly warming climate, I think people just get the yips every fall about the possibility we’ve lost the ability to COLD. An October snappy soothes that anxiety.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z GFS Day 8-16. Yeah, that'll do just fine. Let's just repeat this until early March.

[Gradient Keeper]

12z ECMWF .... Wait for it....

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

26 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In a rapidly warming climate, I think people just get the yips every fall about the possibility we’ve lost the ability to COLD. An October snappy soothes that anxiety.

Its been cold at my house every winter I have lived here.

[Timmy]

21 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

12z ECMWF .... Wait for it....

Sheesh, hold off a month on that please 

[Deweydog]

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, Timmy said:

Sheesh, hold off a month on that please 

Fake news that this would be a bad thing.

[snow_wizard]

EPS is very bullish on some kind of cold snap later in the month.  Some chance it could be a significant cold shot.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Its been cold at my house every winter I have lived here.

The winters here have actually gotten colder since the turn of the century.

[BLI snowman]

41 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

In a rapidly warming climate, I think people just get the yips every fall about the possibility we’ve lost the ability to COLD. An October snappy soothes that anxiety.

I think there's also a sense nowadays that there's a seasonal cold "budget" of sorts. And getting cold now kind of depletes it. With our modern climate hawtness, it definitely isn't as easy to rip off 2 or 3 cold months in a short period of time as it used to be. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Whatever.  Just saying I can't think of a year that had that configuration in a neutral or cold ENSO season where the winter wasn't good.  If you can find one please share.

I just want a good winter where the Cascades get block buster snow. Also would love to finally experience a winter like 1950. Our generation has been screwed. 

[snow_wizard]

6 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

I just want a good winter where the Cascades get block buster snow. Also would love to finally experience a winter like 1950. Our generation has been screwed. 

I think a lot of us will be happy with this one.

Certainly cool today.  Only up to 50 here so far.

[the_convergence_zone]

Where exactly is this cold snap?

 

 

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think there's also a sense nowadays that there's a seasonal cold "budget" of sorts. And getting cold now kind of depletes it. With our modern climate hawtness, it definitely isn't as easy to rip off 2 or 3 cold months in a short period of time as it used to be. 

Good point.  I will never forget the mid 1980s where it was just cold month after month on multiple occasions.  

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Where exactly is this cold snap?

 

Just look at the general 500mb anomaly map.  High heights over the GOA is a bigger deal than heights that are over us.  Just saying the general look is there.  Also look at the teleconnections.  EPO and PNA both solidly minus.

[Winterdog]

Had a low of 36.7 with fog this morning.  Fog has moved out on little cats feet.  Currently 51 and still mostly cloudy.

 

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

I have a good feeling about this winter too, but a late October cold snap isnt going to be the reason I think it’ll be good though. IMO I don’t think it means much. 

A cold snap in Oct with long range models looking good, and a weak La Niña makes me hope the winter will be more consistently cold.

[MossMan]

My contribution to the colorful sky pics. 
Last evening after getting over that traumatizing Seahawks game I went outside and looked up. Didn’t see anything but took a picture. 
Then I went to bed at 9:30. 

[iFred]

44 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

The winters here have actually gotten colder since the turn of the century.

Its almost as if the jet stream is weakening.

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Had a low of 36.7 with fog this morning.  Fog has moved out on little cats feet.  Currently 51 and still mostly cloudy.

 

 

It was pea soup that triggered my automatic wipers at 12:30am. It had been a while since I'd seen fog that dense out here.

[SouthHillFrosty]

19 minutes ago, iFred said:

Its almost as if the jet stream is weakening.

I am going to need a linear correlation in R to back this claim up.

Edited October 11 by SouthHillFrosty

[ShawniganLake]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The winters here have actually gotten colder since the turn of the century.

I think this is misleading. Compared to what?  

[High Desert Mathew]

54 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just look at the general 500mb anomaly map.  High heights over the GOA is a bigger deal than heights that are over us.  Just saying the general look is there.  Also look at the teleconnections.  EPO and PNA both solidly minus.

The heights over the goa aren’t more important than what’s over us. Bottom line is what’s over us is what we’re going to “feel”. They’re important, just not “more” important. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

I think the models are on to something now. 

Nice blocking setup. Shame it's being wasted in late October.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, High Desert Mat? said:

The heights over the goa aren’t more important than what’s over us. Bottom line is what’s over us is what we’re going to “feel”. They’re important, just not “more” important. 

Not necessarily. You can have a deeper trough with mild onshore flow and you can have a weak trough bringing much cooler northerly flow. Trajectory matters. Just getting clipped with a northerly trough with a goa ridge can give quite the back door chill.

 

[Snownerd3000]

 

[Slushy Inch]

4 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

 

Love to hear it! 

[MossMan]

Between blowing our blocking load in October, and extremely high solar I think this one is over. 
 

Just kidding. It’s going to be an epic winter. 

[High Desert Mathew]

1 minute ago, MossMan said:

Between blowing our blocking load in October, and extremely high solar I think this one is over. 
 

Just kidding. It’s going to be an epic winter. 

We’re going to see a winter eerily similar to 2016-2017. That didn’t get going until the first week of December but lasted through February.