October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Winterdog]

October is golden this morning. 39 for a low and now 42.  A beautiful day ahead.

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Since October is our only chance for getting cold this season let’s go big!

6” October snowstorm! It has happened in April, why not October! 
 

October 1984 saw an 8-20” snowstorm across east Vancouver island on Halloween night.  About as early as it gets for a major widespread snowstorm up this way. 

[T-Town]

Fog on the Narrows with photographic proof that it DID HAPPEN. 

[Front Ranger]

51 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 41 before the fog set in. Despite the rains not really starting in full force yet so far…has definitely felt more like fall with shorter days and foggy chilly mornings. 

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

[Front Ranger]

12 hours ago, Phil said:

Again, what **quantifiable variable^* are we talking about? If not temps, then **what**? Give me something.

Are you actually suggesting Oct/Nov rainfall can predict the likelihood of a 5-day arctic airmass randomly imbedded somewhere in DJF? You do realize that is physically impossible, right?

Please tell me this is not what you’re insinuating. Because that would be relying on subjective/anecdotal perspective instead of objectively-quantifiable data.

Snowfall and sub-freezing days are good places to start.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

It’s been a pretty average September and October here so far, little on the dry side that’s about it. 

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Snowfall and sub-freezing days are good places to start.

Seems like we are treated to a similar conversation like this at least a couple times every fall. 

[Winterdog]

6 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Seems like we are treated to a similar conversation like this at least a couple times every fall. 

Thanks a lot!  I just broke my phone’s screen!!

[ShawniganLake]

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

LOL Spokane. you can't make this stuff up

[High Desert Mathew]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

If only it was 70 days later. White Christmas!!

[Slushy Inch]

30 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

The Goa ridge anomaly has been off the charts on some runs.

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 41 before the fog set in. Despite the rains not really starting in full force yet so far…has definitely felt more like fall with shorter days and foggy chilly mornings. 

The temps have actually been a bit cooler than normal in a number of locations.  I'm impressed it got cooler at your location this morning than it did here.  Low was 43 here.

[snow_wizard]

12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The Goa ridge anomaly has been off the charts on some runs.

It certainly has!

[snow_wizard]

43 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

Nice to see the GEM have a great run.

[Thermal Trough]

21 hours ago, MossMan said:

A white Halloween incoming! 

 

20 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Wow!

Another good EURO AI run this morning. The 06z showing the same general theme of great blocking up in Alaska.

[Thermal Trough]

54 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

 

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The Goa ridge anomaly has been off the charts on some runs.

Glad to see the GEM showing the Alaskan Blocking. Cold anomalous weather for this time of year for SW Canada and the NW US! Last nights 00z GraphCast GFS also showed the blocking up in Alaska. The downstream effects remain to be seen but loving the trends right now. Going to be a fun ride ahead!  

[Phishy Wx]

Yeah that would probably bring us our first snow over here

[Mercurial]

Wen snow.

 

 

[snow_wizard]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

October 1984 saw an 8-20” snowstorm across east Vancouver island on Halloween night.  About as early as it gets for a major widespread snowstorm up this way. 

1984 was a beast.  Even had a white Halloween in parts of the Seattle area.

[Anti Marine Layer]

14 minutes ago, Mercurial said:

Wen snow.

 

 

Will the roads be too hot for it to stick?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I'm super excited for the mountain snow, looks like the higher elevations on the sisters will get atleast a foot. Mountaineering and skiing season will be here before we know it!

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Blocking setup wasted in October when it’s too early here.

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Blocking setup wasted in October when it’s too early here.

Or it might set the tone for the winter which often happens in cases like this.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Or it might set the tone for the winter which often happens in cases like this.

Sometimes we only get one or two decent blocking patterns per year…other years we get several good shots at it. Don’t necessarily buy that if we get a good pattern in October it will/wont happen again considering wavelengths change. I don’t think this’ll be the “only shot” we have this cold season lol. 

[High Desert Mathew]

51 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Or it might set the tone for the winter which often happens in cases like this.

I’m really am actually curious what “case” this is. 

[Slushy Inch]

At UW in Wisconsin visiting friends. Rope cloud and a minor thunderstorm by Midwest standards to our north.

[TT-SEA]

On Lake Sammamish with our sons and their girlfriends.   Late season boating with drinks and snacks.   Gorgeous out here with no wind at all... feels warm.

[ShawniganLake]

11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On Lake Sammamish with our sons and their girlfriends.   Late season boating with drinks and snacks.   Gorgeous out here with no wind at all... feels warm.

Clear blue skies and close to 70 here. Feels almost like summer.  

[TT-SEA]

Not alone!

[Deweydog]

74.7 here on the WD. 

[Gradient Keeper]

75.0 here does not feel like the second week of October, but it did give me time to mow the front and back yards for one last time before the fall rains set in. As far as the pattern change ahead and possible long range blocking/chilly pattern, it holds no relevance to what will or will not occur over the next 4-5 months, and it would end our fire season. That's a huge bonus. There are still over a dozen fires burning in WA/OR with double that in Idaho. We need chilly soaking rains and mt. snow to extinguish them.

00z GFS in 6 hours 5 minutes

[Slushy Inch]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

77F and sunny here. Could see a late 80F burger. Rare after Oct 10.

[Meatyorologist]

My thinking is a quick warning shot or two in the second half of October producing a week or so of dry air temp anomalies (54/28 type days with limited precip). More of a precursor/advertisement for later this winter.

[Deweydog]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

On Lake Sammamish with our sons and their girlfriends.   Late season boating with drinks and snacks.   Gorgeous out here with no wind at all... feels warm.

What are the snacks???

[LowerGarfield]

12 OZ GFS was the first one that is a borderline chance of snow for my location. It won't happen but I'm curious to what the 18OZ says when it gets to that frame later in the run. Following on Pivotal. 

[Groundhog]

Canadian Thanksgiving weekend in Kelowna, BC.

[MossMan]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Not alone!

My boat is very jealous…

I still need to figure out a day to run it over east for its winter garage storage before the flakes start flying on Stevens Pass. 

[T-Town]

Drove out to Scenic Beach SP. Tide was way up to the point there basically was no beach. Still nice walking around on this beautiful day.