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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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Since October is our only chance for getting cold this season let’s go big!

6” October snowstorm! It has happened in April, why not October! 
 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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19 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Since October is our only chance for getting cold this season let’s go big!

6” October snowstorm! It has happened in April, why not October! 
 

October 1984 saw an 8-20” snowstorm across east Vancouver island on Halloween night.  About as early as it gets for a major widespread snowstorm up this way. 

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51 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 41 before the fog set in. Despite the rains not really starting in full force yet so far…has definitely felt more like fall with shorter days and foggy chilly mornings. 

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

14dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

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A forum for the end of the world.

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12 hours ago, Phil said:

Again, what **quantifiable variable^* are we talking about? If not temps, then **what**? Give me something.

Are you actually suggesting Oct/Nov rainfall can predict the likelihood of a 5-day arctic airmass randomly imbedded somewhere in DJF? You do realize that is physically impossible, right?

Please tell me this is not what you’re insinuating.😑 Because that would be relying on subjective/anecdotal perspective instead of objectively-quantifiable data.

Snowfall and sub-freezing days are good places to start.

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A forum for the end of the world.

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21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

14dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

It’s been a pretty average September and October here so far, little on the dry side that’s about it. 

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1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

Last couple weeks have been basically normal for WA. Much better than the torch fest this fall has been here so far, not to mention the rest of the country.

14dTDeptWRCC-NW.png

LOL Spokane. you can't make this stuff up

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2 hours ago, TacomaWx said:

Got down to 41 before the fog set in. Despite the rains not really starting in full force yet so far…has definitely felt more like fall with shorter days and foggy chilly mornings. 

The temps have actually been a bit cooler than normal in a number of locations.  I'm impressed it got cooler at your location this morning than it did here.  Low was 43 here.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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12 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The Goa ridge anomaly has been off the charts on some runs.

It certainly has!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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43 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

IMG_8706.png

Nice to see the GEM have a great run.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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54 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Look at the girth on that thang. 
 

 

IMG_8706.png

 

24 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

The Goa ridge anomaly has been off the charts on some runs.

Glad to see the GEM showing the Alaskan Blocking. Cold anomalous weather for this time of year for SW Canada and the NW US! Last nights 00z GraphCast GFS also showed the blocking up in Alaska. The downstream effects remain to be seen but loving the trends right now. Going to be a fun ride ahead! 🎢 ☃️ 

IMG_4041.thumb.png.a10c53d990a56d20080492b02e110c29.png

IMG_4042.thumb.png.57b72a2bc66a92e263423679b0e0ac56.png

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foto5c0317ef22ec03f3d05aaa5dd47915e9.png

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2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

October 1984 saw an 8-20” snowstorm across east Vancouver island on Halloween night.  About as early as it gets for a major widespread snowstorm up this way. 

1984 was a beast.  Even had a white Halloween in parts of the Seattle area.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Blocking setup wasted in October when it’s too early here.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Blocking setup wasted in October when it’s too early here.

Or it might set the tone for the winter which often happens in cases like this.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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47 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Or it might set the tone for the winter which often happens in cases like this.

Sometimes we only get one or two decent blocking patterns per year…other years we get several good shots at it. Don’t necessarily buy that if we get a good pattern in October it will/wont happen again considering wavelengths change. I don’t think this’ll be the “only shot” we have this cold season lol. 

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11 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

On Lake Sammamish with our sons and their girlfriends.   Late season boating with drinks and snacks.   Gorgeous out here with no wind at all... feels warm.

20241012_134925.jpg

Clear blue skies and close to 70 here. Feels almost like summer.  

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75.0 here does not feel like the second week of October, but it did give me time to mow the front and back yards for one last time before the fall rains set in. As far as the pattern change ahead and possible long range blocking/chilly pattern, it holds no relevance to what will or will not occur over the next 4-5 months, and it would end our fire season. That's a huge bonus. There are still over a dozen fires burning in WA/OR with double that in Idaho. We need chilly soaking rains and mt. snow to extinguish them.

00z GFS in 6 hours 5 minutes

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77F and sunny here. Could see a late 80F burger. Rare after Oct 10.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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My thinking is a quick warning shot or two in the second half of October producing a week or so of dry air temp anomalies (54/28 type days with limited precip). More of a precursor/advertisement for later this winter.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

On Lake Sammamish with our sons and their girlfriends.   Late season boating with drinks and snacks.   Gorgeous out here with no wind at all... feels warm.

20241012_134925.jpg

What are the snacks???

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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12 OZ GFS was the first one that is a borderline chance of snow for my location. It won't happen but I'm curious to what the 18OZ says when it gets to that frame later in the run. Following on Pivotal. 

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 30F on 10/24/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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