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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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6 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

The only tree I know about is the TREE(3) inches of snow KSEA will get this december

Not sure if you meant that ironically but three inches of snow would be above average and a huge improvement from last December which was an absolute blowtorch. Perhaps my least favorite month I've ever experienced. It was awful.

Of course, something like December 2021 would be preferred but you gotta be grateful for every inch of snow we get. 

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28 minutes ago, Mapletree said:

Not sure if you meant that ironically but three inches of snow would be above average and a huge improvement from last December which was an absolute blowtorch. Perhaps my least favorite month I've ever experienced. It was awful.

Of course, something like December 2021 would be preferred but you gotta be grateful for every inch of snow we get. 

It's not that hard to get snow here.

I do agree that last December sucked, but there are plenty of other really bad winter months that were every bit as bad in recent memory.  That having been said most recent winters have either had a major cold wave, snow, or both.

  • Snow 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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47 minutes ago, Mapletree said:

Not sure if you meant that ironically but three inches of snow would be above average and a huge improvement from last December which was an absolute blowtorch. Perhaps my least favorite month I've ever experienced. It was awful.

Of course, something like December 2021 would be preferred but you gotta be grateful for every inch of snow we get. 

December 2021 was awesome. Kind of like a mini December 2008 in Seattle.

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14 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks like we're getting warm sector'd this weekend...followed by some seasonally cool weather. 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_tmp_max-8993600.png

The ECMWF had one day next 51/35 for SEA.  That is way below normal.  Generally, a below normal period coming up.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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13 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

December 2021 was awesome. Kind of like a mini December 2008 in Seattle.

That Dec 2021 event was thoroughly enjoyable.  Of course, 2008 was as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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46 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

That Dec 2021 event was thoroughly enjoyable.  Of course, 2008 was as well.

December 2021 was a little overwhelming here. Set a sierra record for snowiest Dec. I got 100" in a couple of weeks in the Banana belt. 

20211228_122721.jpg

IMG_20211227_123802_791.jpg

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4 minutes ago, AlTahoe said:

December 2021 was a little overwhelming here. Set a sierra record for snowiest Dec. I got 100" in a couple of weeks in the Banana belt. 

20211228_122721.jpg

IMG_20211227_123802_791.jpg

Jesse would have hated this post.😢

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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68F and cloudy. Pleasant feeling out there.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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18z drops a pretty significant trough in here around the 25th.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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3 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

18z drops a pretty significant trough in here around the 25th.

For sure.  Some highs in the 40s being shown.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Wow!  Reload on that big trough.  Two big cold shots.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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This is with northerly surface gradients.  That is getting real for October. 

1730095200-CZ36aYkV9Ns.png

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

The ECMWF had one day next 51/35 for SEA.  That is way below normal.  Generally, a below normal period coming up.

The coldest day on the EPS is 54/40, or 54/42 from the GEFS. Normal for that day is 58/45. 

The deterministic runs do seem to be sniffing out a brief colder period though, I'll give you that. But it's getting close to the typical time of year for the first appreciable cold intrusion. 

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2 hours ago, Mapletree said:

Not sure if you meant that ironically but three inches of snow would be above average and a huge improvement from last December which was an absolute blowtorch. Perhaps my least favorite month I've ever experienced. It was awful.

Of course, something like December 2021 would be preferred but you gotta be grateful for every inch of snow we get. 

It's a stupid math joke that I figured no one would get because it's very obscure and never used. TREE(x) is a mathematical function some grad student at MIT invented on a bar bet to come up with the largest number. It takes the amount of possible combinations you can make with x nodes given a flurry of rules I already forgot. I only know about the function from youtube videos.

Anyways TREE(1) produces 1, TREE(2) results in 27 or something, and TREE(3) is an incomprehensibly large number. Like, a number with so many digits in it that even if you filled the entire observable universe with stacks of notebook paper, and wrote each number as small as an atom as fast as the speed of light, you would never finish before the heat death of the universe trillions of years from now, and even supposing time continued forever, there still wouldn't be enough writing space on all the pieces of paper filling our universe to write the number down.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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48 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

This is with northerly surface gradients.  That is getting real for October. 

1730095200-CZ36aYkV9Ns.png

It is the GFS but to see that in October is insane. The winter with the only measurable snow in October at SEA went on to get almost 30 inches there. 1971-72. Also the same winter with the latest snowfall at SEA with I believe 1.6” on the 17th of April or somewhere around there.

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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44 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Drove back to the west side via HWY 20 and 530…Was the first time stopping at the Oso landslide site/memorial area. 
 

IMG_8853.jpeg

IMG_8852.jpeg

IMG_8850.jpeg

IMG_8851.jpeg

That was a horrible event for sure.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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14 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It is the GFS but to see that in October is insane. The winter with the only measurable snow in October at SEA went on to get almost 30 inches there. 1971-72. Also the same winter with the latest snowfall at SEA with I believe 1.6” on the 17th of April or somewhere around there.

1971-72 was something else.  Jan 1972 was my all time favorite weather event.  Classic snowstorm followed by a long period of clear and cold weather.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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41 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's a stupid math joke that I figured no one would get because it's very obscure and never used. TREE(x) is a mathematical function some grad student at MIT invented on a bar bet to come up with the largest number. It takes the amount of possible combinations you can make with x nodes given a flurry of rules I already forgot. I only know about the function from youtube videos.

Anyways TREE(1) produces 1, TREE(2) results in 27 or something, and TREE(3) is an incomprehensibly large number. Like, a number with so many digits in it that even if you filled the entire observable universe with stacks of notebook paper, and wrote each number as small as an atom as fast as the speed of light, you would never finish before the heat death of the universe trillions of years from now, and even supposing time continued forever, there still wouldn't be enough writing space on all the pieces of paper filling our universe to write the number down.

This makes my head hurt.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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49 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

The coldest day on the EPS is 54/40, or 54/42 from the GEFS. Normal for that day is 58/45. 

The deterministic runs do seem to be sniffing out a brief colder period though, I'll give you that. But it's getting close to the typical time of year for the first appreciable cold intrusion. 

I just think you're understating it.  Looks like a possible solid cold snap coming up.  Still very early of course.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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18z GEFS is really nice.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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33 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

It is the GFS but to see that in October is insane. The winter with the only measurable snow in October at SEA went on to get almost 30 inches there. 1971-72. Also the same winter with the latest snowfall at SEA with I believe 1.6” on the 17th of April or somewhere around there.

42/30 type days with pseudo-offshore Pacific/Arctic air about isn't unheard of for late October but very good. Some of the model runs in mid October 2022 were pretty wild. IIRC one modeled a 28F high on the 29th with an insane block upstream and an unseasonable airmass retrograded from the high arctic through the NW Territories. November '55 style but two weeks earlier.

1935 is probably our ceiling for the month of October. Highs in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Some snow. A typical BLAST for December but crazy for this time of year.

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

42/30 type days with pseudo-offshore Pacific/Arctic air about isn't unheard of for late October but very good. Some of the model runs in mid October 2022 were pretty wild. IIRC one modeled a 28F high on the 29th with an insane block upstream and an unseasonable airmass retrograded from the high arctic through the NW Territories. November '55 style but two weeks earlier.

1935 is probably our ceiling for the month of October. Highs in the mid 30s and lows in the teens. Some snow. A typical BLAST for December but crazy for this time of year.

Yeah.  1935 was the gold standard.  Some places had freezing max temps with that.  Very cold mins for that time of year went well into November.

I think BLI had highs around freezing in both October 1971 and 1984 as well.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 minutes ago, SnowWillarrive said:

December 2021 was probably one of my favorite events since 2008. We had about 20 inches of snow here in 2021. Was special that it happened over Christmas. 

Yup.  Dec 2017, Feb 2019, and Dec 2021 were all very nice.  Also some decent ones in Nov / Dec 2022 and Feb 2022.  Feb 2017 had several inches, but it was pretty sloppy.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 hours ago, iFred said:

You have three residences that I know of and yet you have invited 0 of us for a BBQ.

I only own one and a quarter of the 3…If that makes a difference? 😂

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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3 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I only own one and a quarter of the 3…If that makes a difference? 😂

BBQ at your Stanwood place during the next blizzard! Snow covered burgers!

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2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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5 hours ago, iFred said:

The ones that are, such as in the northern reaches of Greenland, are seemingly due to the increase in summer precipitation, which you know, is caused by changes happening to the climate on a global scale. 

Just wait for the AMOC to shutdown.   Then we will see some growing glaciers and we can all look like Domebuster.  

IMG_1203.jpeg

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3 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Saw it in person last month! Pretty cool. Also massive fire hazard.

Their security lines were supposed to move faster, but it seems like it’s been the opposite of that. I think people are confused by the new security checkpoints and it’s showing down the whole process. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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10 minutes ago, Randyc321 said:

Just wait for the AMOC to shutdown.   Then we will see some growing glaciers and we can all look like Domebuster.  

IMG_1203.jpeg

Miss that Trump lovin son of a gun. He blocked me on Facebook for being insufficiently Trumpy. But it’s all good, I’d still love to see him back someday. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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