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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  The hating on late October cold is just out of control on here.  For some reason I just like having frost in October.  It feels so amazing to walk outside on that first frosty morning.  BTW it's not an either or proposition.  It can get cold in October and still get cold in the winter.  See 1949, 1956, 1971, 1984, etc.  

Just wait until you see people hate on that -1.3f departure in December or January. People just don't appreciate temps in the mid to upper 40s like we do.

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32 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Geeze.  The hating on late October cold is just out of control on here.  For some reason I just like having frost in October.  It feels so amazing to walk outside on that first frosty morning.  BTW it's not an either or proposition.  It can get cold in October and still get cold in the winter.  See 1949, 1956, 1971, 1984, etc.  

I’m not saying us getting cold in October is a good or bad sign for winter. I don’t think it means anything good or bad. I’m just saying most people aren’t really going to find some frosty pumpkins and some days in the low to mid 40s around Halloween all that interesting. 

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14 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

12/4/24

Always Sunny Not So Sure.gif

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 51F (Oct 30, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 29F (Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 2 (Most recent: Oct 25, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Let’s have a massive Thanksgiving windstorm!!! 🤤 

No. But Thanksgiving is a week later. You can thank FDR for that.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 28F on 11/6/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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1 hour ago, Mapletree said:

Personally I'm not a fan of the warm atmospheric rivers we get.

I think it's a waste of moisture. It would be better if cold fronts brought the majority of our cool season precip.

A warm atmospheric river with high snow levels does nothing to help our mountain snowpack and in fact, makes things worse. We all know that rain does a good job of melting snow. 

The warm September/October ARs are highly beneficial for recharging groundwater / river levels and getting the salmon run going. 

The same storm in January is a different story. 

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1 hour ago, TacomaWx said:

I’m not saying us getting cold in October is a good or bad sign for winter. I don’t think it means anything good or bad. I’m just saying most people aren’t really going to find some frosty pumpkins and some days in the low to mid 40s around Halloween all that interesting. 

I read some of the reactions to say that people wish the pattern was happening later in the winter so it would produce snow.  Not any specific reaction against cold in October. 

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3 hours ago, Tanis Leach said:

For anyone in the Portland area:

 

Winter Weather Forecast Confrence this coming Saturday (the 19th) at 10AM at OMSI. Come see what some of us think the upcoming winter will look like. 

I'll def be there!

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Going to a weather spotter refresher meeting tonight. Currently 57F.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 28F on 11/6/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Possible funnel cloud?
Earlier a vigorous cell moved east-southeast of West Linn/Oregon City intensifying as it approached the Redland area. Velocities mode indicated an area of rotation with this storm moved from west to east in the vicinity of S Redland Road, S Fischers Mill Road, S Strowbridge Road, and S Springwater Road. Correlation Coefficient even suggested a small and brief area of debris may have occurred best estimated to be near the Redland Family Farm. Hopefully someone took video of this storm which did produce several lightning strikes to get an idea what structure it had or to confirm the rotation. It's kind of fun to see active weather returning to the area with this cell today and yesterday's impressive funnel cloud west of Battle Ground.
image.jpeg
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The blocking / trough next week doesn't look as impressive on the models now, but still a pretty cool period coming it appears.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Getting a bit chilly up there. 🥶

Reasonably cold trough over us right now.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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7 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:
Possible funnel cloud?
Earlier a vigorous cell moved east-southeast of West Linn/Oregon City intensifying as it approached the Redland area. Velocities mode indicated an area of rotation with this storm moved from west to east in the vicinity of S Redland Road, S Fischers Mill Road, S Strowbridge Road, and S Springwater Road. Correlation Coefficient even suggested a small and brief area of debris may have occurred best estimated to be near the Redland Family Farm. Hopefully someone took video of this storm which did produce several lightning strikes to get an idea what structure it had or to confirm the rotation. It's kind of fun to see active weather returning to the area with this cell today and yesterday's impressive funnel cloud west of Battle Ground.
image.jpeg
image.jpeg
image.jpeg

I was going to comment yesterday that it didn't seem like a funnel cloud kind of day at all.  That is not the case today.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

The blocking / trough next week doesn't look as impressive on the models now, but still a pretty cool period coming it appears.

That's a bummer. We know that could change quickly. Maybe models in 5 days will look more interesting.

00z GFS (Monday, Oct 21) in 122 hours 48 minutes

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16 minutes ago, iFred said:

Getting some soft hail out of this cell. The development reminds me of a weird convergence cell from a few years ago that was effectively stationary over downtown Everett.

IMG_2066.png

KOMO was right about graupel today.  That is not the easiest thing to forecast a few days in advance like they did.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

That's a bummer. We know that could change quickly. Maybe models in 5 days will look more interesting.

00z GFS (Monday, Oct 21) in 122 hours 48 minutes

It certainly could change again.  It doesn't look terrible now, but it's not as pretty as previous days.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 hour ago, T-Town said:

I read some of the reactions to say that people wish the pattern was happening later in the winter so it would produce snow.  Not any specific reaction against cold in October. 

It's just the implication is always there that a cold pattern out of season is somehow wasted.  Actually, given patterns have a tendency to repeat so that simply is not true.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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2 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Also as a tease for the forecast, I did decide to use the QBO in making forecasts and deciding analog years. Take that how you will.

+QBO in combination with a Nina is about as good as it gets for us.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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1 minute ago, Phishy Wx said:

nothing screams Thanksgiving like power outages, the fence blowing down or trees on the roof

Seems like were on a roll for that back in the later part of the 20th century.  Either wind, snow, ice, bitter cold, or something.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Pounding pea sized hail here in South Everett.

Don't see that light pink color on the radar here very often!

 

Screenshot_20241016-175447.png

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Everett Snowfall (510 feet elevation)

Snow since February 2019: 91"

2023-24: 6"

2022-23: 17.5"

2021-22: 17.75"

2020-21: 14.5”

2019-20: 10.5"

2018-19: 24.75"

 

 

 

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