October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Tenochtitlan]

6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot depends on the what's around the low also.  You need the strong push of higher pressure behind the low.

Ah, ok. I remember there was some really deep low a while back that brought little wind…I wonder if that was why.

[Deweydog]

41 spooktacular degrees on the WD.

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

 

Sorry, I was not available earlier. Hoping to see some interesting weather after Day 5-6. Yep. First around Day 6-7 we see the first decent low of the early fall season at roughly 988mb. It then tracks northeast towards the Washington Coast slightly weakening to 991mb.

 

This wouldn't be a wind storm due to the an open wave of low pressure to the south leading to a baggy pressure couplet and lack of strong pressure rises. It would still be quite blustery though. Beyond Day 7 there is a nice early fall cold trough digging south from British Columbia, but it's way out there around Day 10. This run is a bit wetter and whiter for the mountains.

[LowerGarfield]

Wow the new GFS says Halloween will be swim or treat in SE WA and much of the NW.

[BLI snowman]

23 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Ah, ok. I remember there was some really deep low a while back that brought little wind…I wonder if that was why.

It's also a little cutoff-y without a ton of jet support behind it, and it may be filling in as it lands on our doorstep. 

Still should bring some decent 35-40mph gusts to places, if nothing else.

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

So let me get this straight, your wife was a highschool football player in 2019, and if I remember correctly you are in your 40s.

How are you not typing this from prison?

 

 

 

Uh… I must of mentally blocked out the 2019 bit because I thought they have been together since 2018.

Um… this is some real 90 Day Fiancé shit.

[High Desert Mathew]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

It's also a little cutoff-y without a ton of jet support behind it, and it may be filling in as it lands on our doorstep. 

Still should bring some decent 35-40mph gusts to places, if nothing else.

Well hurricanes are cut offy too. Just sayin’!

[iFred]

Limes should be good tonight.

[Meatyorologist]

whew

[TigerWoodsLibido]

44F and pretty cool & partly cloudy.

[Gradient Keeper]

Fire hose....

[Meatyorologist]

Some ensemble members are starting to get a little #kold. Or cold. However you want to put it

[Meatyorologist]

06z GFS is finkin boudit

[LowerGarfield]

Going back to sleep now. Still only at 38 so probably won't get a freeze. Glad to see the rain a bit later on the 06 OZ after Halloween. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

10 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

So let me get this straight, your wife was a highschool football player in 2019, and if I remember correctly you are in your 40s.

How are you not typing this from prison?

 

 

 

She’s 35 f*ckstick. It’s a women’s league, you think they generate enough interest to have their games at Century Link Field? Mostly just wives and girlfriends in the stands, and the occasional husband or boyfriend. 

[Phishy Wx]

Currently 29

[Phishy Wx]

with another bout of Indian Summer on the way

 

 

[MossMan]

Currently 44 after a low of 42. 
 

[LowerGarfield]

Wow it really dropped from 4am until now. First freeze of the season at 31F.

[the_convergence_zone]

Low of 45 here, coldest of the fall. Gonna be wet this weekend. 

[Phishy Wx]

lol my work computer (not this computer) saying light snow coming at 11am

[Phishy Wx]

go home windows, you drunk

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

18 degrees currently with a low of 15.

Great webcam view on Bachelor, really starting to feel like winter

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Low of 45 here, coldest of the fall. Gonna be wet this weekend. 

Dropped to 42 here, but it has already gotten into the 30s twice here a while back.

[snow_wizard]

Dropped to 18 in Colville last night.  Very impressive for this early.

[Phishy Wx]

My growing season is done for the most part with that 29 low. about 10 or 11 days LATE.

[Phishy Wx]

3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dropped to 18 in Colville last night.  Very impressive for this early.

they're a frost hollow, they've gotten frost in each month of the year historically.  Deer Park is similar

 

but yeah teens are chilly in October

[the_convergence_zone]

Looks active to end October/start November with the MJO heading across the Pacific and the PNA coming back positive. Balmy for the rest of CONUS. Likely some EPAC TC activity as well. 

[iFred]

1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks active to end October/start November with the MJO heading across the Pacific and the PNA coming back positive. Balmy for the rest of CONUS. Likely some EPAC TC activity as well. 

Nice. If we can avoid a hard frost for the season then some of my flowers and fruits might do well in the spring.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

31 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nice. If we can avoid a hard frost for the season then some of my flowers and fruits might do well in the spring.

This would have gotten a serious downvote from a certain person.

[iFred]

Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This would have gotten a serious downvote from a certain person.

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

[T-Town]

5 minutes ago, iFred said:

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

Seems like a pretty even trade. 

[Phishy Wx]

8 minutes ago, iFred said:

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

Irvine, CA is nice, just sayin'

[High Desert Mathew]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

Currently 44 after a low of 42. 
 

Is the fuzz the PDO? 

[Slushy Inch]

Looks like gem is in the process of going cold at the end

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Anyone in here live near Grant's Pass OR?

[Phil]

On 10/17/2024 at 12:02 PM, MossMan said:

Winter has apparently been canceled due to high solar. 
 

The Weather Channel is calling for chilly temps here this winter. 
 

You are all caught up. 

I’d be canceling winter in any other setup except Niña/+QBO. It’s the only low-frequency mode that has historically produced cold/snowy western winters regardless of solar/etc. So I’m not worried for you guys (at the moment) since there are more conduits to cold patterns than there are failure modes.

However, the one potential failure mode that is probabilistically significant is a strong, barotropic-mode PV that dynamically couples to a significant +NAM/+AO regime in troposphere. If the tropospheric pattern evolves in a manner that inhibits wave driving/promotes +AO, that outcome would be more likely. However there isn’t evidence of this, at least for now (I’ll give this outcome an ~ 40% probability).

[Phil]

I recorded a 59mph gust on my balcony on Monday with a handheld anemometer. Airport gusts all the 36-39mph range.

Venturi effect + 29th floor is no joke. Can’t imagine what it will be like up here on a high wind day with 60+mph gusts at the surface.

[MossMan]

42 minutes ago, High Desert Mathew said:

Is the fuzz the PDO? 

PNA! 

[RentonHill]

Up in twisp to pick the last of the apples. Got down to 31 at the house and 22 down in our little canyon, which only sits about 200 feet below the house. It’s always much colder down there at night and mornings but this is the first time I’ve left a thermometer down there to actually measure the difference.