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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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3 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

I think a 991 mb low cutting across the Olympic peninsula could bring some decent winds. 

A lot depends on the what's around the low also.  You need the strong push of higher pressure behind the low.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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16 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice chill. SnowWizard will like this.

7557CA85-7383-4336-8FB8-B2137E59BD14.png

Not too shabby!

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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6 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

A lot depends on the what's around the low also.  You need the strong push of higher pressure behind the low.

Ah, ok. I remember there was some really deep low a while back that brought little wind…I wonder if that was why.

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00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip
 
Sorry, I was not available earlier. Hoping to see some interesting weather after Day 5-6. Yep. First around Day 6-7 we see the first decent low of the early fall season at roughly 988mb. It then tracks northeast towards the Washington Coast slightly weakening to 991mb.
 
This wouldn't be a wind storm due to the an open wave of low pressure to the south leading to a baggy pressure couplet and lack of strong pressure rises. It would still be quite blustery though. Beyond Day 7 there is a nice early fall cold trough digging south from British Columbia, but it's way out there around Day 10. This run is a bit wetter and whiter for the mountains.
floop-gfs-2024101800.500h_anom.na(1).gif
floop-gfs-2024101800.850th.us_nw.gif
floop-gfs-2024101800.prateptype_cat-imp.us_nw.gif
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_fh150-180.gif
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Wow the new GFS says Halloween will be swim or treat in SE WA and much of the NW.

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 30F on 10/24/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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23 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Ah, ok. I remember there was some really deep low a while back that brought little wind…I wonder if that was why.

It's also a little cutoff-y without a ton of jet support behind it, and it may be filling in as it lands on our doorstep. 

Still should bring some decent 35-40mph gusts to places, if nothing else.

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2 hours ago, Sunriver Snow Zone said:

So let me get this straight, your wife was a highschool football player in 2019, and if I remember correctly you are in your 40s.

How are you not typing this from prison?

 

 

 

Uh… I must of mentally blocked out the 2019 bit because I thought they have been together since 2018.

Um… this is some real 90 Day Fiancé shit.

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IMG_3734.png

whew

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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44F and pretty cool & partly cloudy.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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image.png

Some ensemble members are starting to get a little #kold. Or cold. However you want to put it

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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06z GFS is finkin boudit

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Weather stats for MBY

Snowfall:

-Total snowfall since joining: 50.25"

-2018-19: 21"

-2019-20: 2.5"

-2020-21: 13"

-2021-22: 8.75"

-2022-23: 5.75"

-2023-24*: 0.25"

-Most recent snowfall: 0.25”; January 17th, 2024

-Largest snowfall (single storm): 8.5"; February 12-13, 2021

-Largest snow depth: 14"; 1:30am February 12th, 2019

Temperatures:

-Warmest: 109F; June 28th, 2021

-Coldest: 13F; December 27th, 2021

-Phreeze Count 2023-24: 40

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Going back to sleep now. Still only at 38 so probably won't get a freeze. Glad to see the rain a bit later on the 06 OZ after Halloween. 

Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 30F on 10/24/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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Wow it really dropped from 4am until now. First freeze of the season at 31F.

20241018_072635.jpg

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Garfield County/Pomeroy, WA:

2024-2025 Snowfall totals:

HIghest snow total (per event): 

Most recent accumulation (non trace): 

Days with  trace or more snowfall: 

First Freeze: 10/18/24

Last Sub freezing Day: 

Coldest low: 30F on 10/24/24

Last White Christmas: 2022 at my location (on ground)

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30 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Low of 45 here, coldest of the fall. Gonna be wet this weekend. 

Dropped to 42 here, but it has already gotten into the 30s twice here a while back.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Dropped to 18 in Colville last night.  Very impressive for this early.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Dropped to 18 in Colville last night.  Very impressive for this early.

they're a frost hollow, they've gotten frost in each month of the year historically.  Deer Park is similar

 

but yeah teens are chilly in October

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1 minute ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Looks active to end October/start November with the MJO heading across the Pacific and the PNA coming back positive. Balmy for the rest of CONUS. Likely some EPAC TC activity as well. 

Nice. If we can avoid a hard frost for the season then some of my flowers and fruits might do well in the spring.

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31 minutes ago, iFred said:

Nice. If we can avoid a hard frost for the season then some of my flowers and fruits might do well in the spring.

This would have gotten a serious downvote from a certain person.

PWS: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KWAPORTA220

2023-2024 Snow Total: 18" (6 events)

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Just now, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This would have gotten a serious downvote from a certain person.

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

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5 minutes ago, iFred said:

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

Seems like a pretty even trade. 

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8 minutes ago, iFred said:

A part of me wants cold active weather, you know, the part of me that is enthusiastic about the weather.

A part of me wants a warm, bland, blah, unevental winter. Sure, there will be a massive explosion of pests, the water situation will be wrecked, fires next year will be worse, but, I wont have to move my limes inside.

Irvine, CA is nice, just sayin'

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On 10/17/2024 at 12:02 PM, MossMan said:

Winter has apparently been canceled due to high solar. 
 

The Weather Channel is calling for chilly temps here this winter. 
 

You are all caught up. 

I’d be canceling winter in any other setup except Niña/+QBO. It’s the only low-frequency mode that has historically produced cold/snowy western winters regardless of solar/etc. So I’m not worried for you guys (at the moment) since there are more conduits to cold patterns than there are failure modes.

However, the one potential failure mode that is probabilistically significant is a strong, barotropic-mode PV that dynamically couples to a significant +NAM/+AO regime in troposphere. If the tropospheric pattern evolves in a manner that inhibits wave driving/promotes +AO, that outcome would be more likely. However there isn’t evidence of this, at least for now (I’ll give this outcome an ~ 40% probability).

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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I recorded a 59mph gust on my balcony on Monday with a handheld anemometer. Airport gusts all the 36-39mph range.

Venturi effect + 29th floor is no joke. Can’t imagine what it will be like up here on a high wind day with 60+mph gusts at the surface. 😶

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foto26446a4f1f801ef3b3d1564dea31df66.png
"Western troughing literally kills people at this time of year. And in the most gruesome of ways."
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