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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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1 minute ago, MossMan said:

This hummingbird doesn’t seem to care about the storm! They sure do love my Fuchsia’s. Great lunchtime entertainment. 

IMG_8950.jpeg

IMG_8951.jpeg

I don’t know what it is about hummingbirds. Any other bird I don’t care. But a hummingbird and it’s HEY A HUMMINGBIRD!!!

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28 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

PDX saw 0" in 2007-08, Spokane's third snowiest winter on record. Also 1996-97, another very good snow winter on the east side. 

Truly a unique difference in climates from one side of the states to the other in the PNW.

Well...1996-97 was big west of the Cascades up this way as well.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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28 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

elevation most likely the contributor 

More so the Cascades trapping cold air over the east side.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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3 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

EPS control shows lowland snow on Halloween.

That’s great news for all the tourists making an early season Tacoma winter getaway, beating the crush of holiday season vacationers. 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Well...1996-97 was big west of the Cascades up this way as well.

Of course. But just the fact that any westside city can go virtually snowless in a winter that's absolutely massive just 500-1000' higher and/or a couple hundred miles further east is pretty unique to the PNW.

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6 minutes ago, the_convergence_zone said:

Member 10 shuts down Seattle with a half foot of snow.

Member 9 has a high of 67 degrees. 

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_snow_24-9252800.png

ecmwf-ensemble-KSEA-indiv_tmp_max-9252800.png

Perturbations used in #10 have been known to be correct most of the time.

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Sitting in a cafe in Everett just outside of the navy base. While the horizon is starting to clear out, there is that distinct yellowed paper look. Trees are seemingly at peak with the various maples giving to reds and yellows, but the show is being stolen by a small patch of blueberries with thanksgiving colors adorning the remainder of the leaves. I'm stretching Birkinstock season as the air has that decidedly moist and cold feel, but my toes are left out of the pleasure of a hot cup of coffee giving my circulatory system some help in it's radiant heat.

There is something about this environ that nurtures an academic desire, the warm tones, leather chairs, and dark skies, and my third cup of coffee.

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

Sitting in a cafe in Everett just outside of the navy base. While the horizon is starting to clear out, there is that distinct yellowed paper look. Trees are seemingly at peak with the various maples giving to reds and yellows, but the show is being stolen by a small patch of blueberries with thanksgiving colors adorning the remainder of the leaves. I'm stretching Birkinstock season as the air has that decidedly moist and cold feel, but my toes are left out of the pleasure of a hot cup of coffee giving my circulatory system some help in it's radiant heat.

There is something about this environ that nurtures an academic desire, the warm tones, leather chairs, and dark skies, and my third cup of coffee.

It’s always Birkenstock season. 

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7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Sitting in a cafe in Everett just outside of the navy base. While the horizon is starting to clear out, there is that distinct yellowed paper look. Trees are seemingly at peak with the various maples giving to reds and yellows, but the show is being stolen by a small patch of blueberries with thanksgiving colors adorning the remainder of the leaves. I'm stretching Birkinstock season as the air has that decidedly moist and cold feel, but my toes are left out of the pleasure of a hot cup of coffee giving my circulatory system some help in it's radiant heat.

There is something about this environ that nurtures an academic desire, the warm tones, leather chairs, and dark skies, and my third cup of coffee.

did you break into my webcam?

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The only place that had a good snow event during the 2007-08 winter was EUGENE! And some convergence zone areas in late April.

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

2007-08 was definitely the most elevation-dependent winter in memory. I'd guess that most places in the Portland area above 700-800' had 30"+. 

1 hour ago, Tenochtitlan said:

Good point. I’m hoping that if we get a marginal snow event, I can at least head to Forest Park and there will be a couple inches there around Pittock Mansion. That is one benefit of Portland—the West Hills are taller than anywhere in the Seattle city limits. I can even take the light rail to the Washington Park station, which is 600 feet above sea level!

But I’ll be out of the country for a week next month and then in December, so it’ll probably snow a foot then, lol. 

I remember checking out the COOP forms for a station near Sylvan at around 1000ft, and they had over 70” of snow in 1970-71. I wonder how they did in some of the bigger winters.

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1 minute ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only place that had a good snow event during the 2007-08 winter was EUGENE! And some convergence zone areas in late April.

Terrible winter here. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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5 minutes ago, Doinko said:

I remember checking out the COOP forms for a station near Sylvan at around 1000ft, and they had over 70” of snow in 1970-71. I wonder how they did in some of the bigger winters.

Wow! I bet the West Hills did decent during 2007-08.

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1970-71 was probably one of the better winters for places above 1000'. Massive events in January and late February/early March.

WAY better than 2007-08 for the lowlands too. 

Silver Falls had a snow depth of 47" on 1/31/2008, it's their 2nd deepest recorded snow depth behind the 51" measured on the same date in 1969. This is at 1300'.

Edited by SilverFallsAndrew
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Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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18 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only place that had a good snow event during the 2007-08 winter was EUGENE! And some convergence zone areas in late April.

Drove to Kroger and stood in line to hopefully get a Wii so I could play Smash Bros Brawl that night into that morning. They were still tough to get and I got lucky enough to get my number drawn out of like 30 people, they only had 6 to sell.

Then once it switched to snow we had like 3-4" in some spots. Places at a hundred or so feet up from us on University St had closer to 6". And campus itself had about 5". It was weirdly variable and a very wet snow, much like that of 2-25-19 but with banding that didn't last quite as long.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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24 minutes ago, MossMan said:

Terrible winter here. 

2007-08 was incredibly frustrating.  Seeing the hills near here constantly covered while we just had table scraps sucked.  I seem to recall that places further north got some continental cold and snow.  It came close to delivering for everyone.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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15 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

1970-71 was probably one of the better winters for places above 1000'. Massive events in January and late February/early March.

WAY better than 2007-08 for the lowlands too. 

Silver Falls had a snow depth of 47" on 1/31/2008, it's their 2nd deepest recorded snow depth behind the 51" measured on the same date in 1969. This is at 1300'.

Yes.  1970-71 was like a rich man's 2007-08.  Up here 1970-71 through 1972-73 was a great trio of winters.  

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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ECMWF weeklies show -EPO for much of November.  That argues against a stormy month.  Probably cold if it's correct.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Killer analogs today.  A lot of 1956, 2008, 1971, 1978, 1990, 

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2007-08 was incredibly frustrating.  Seeing the hills near here constantly covered while we just had table scraps sucked.  I seem to recall that places further north got some continental cold and snow.  It came close to delivering for everyone.

Think I could literally see the snow turning into liquid about 100 feet above my head that winter. AHHHH it was so annoying. 

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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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30 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

2007-08 was incredibly frustrating.  Seeing the hills near here constantly covered while we just had table scraps sucked.  I seem to recall that places further north got some continental cold and snow.  It came close to delivering for everyone.

That was such an odd winter. Seattle had all of these minor events where it snowed lightly for hours without amounting to much. The strangest one was on March 28. It snowed all afternoon but the grass barely got a trace. 

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1 hour ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only place that had a good snow event during the 2007-08 winter was EUGENE! And some convergence zone areas in late April.

Hood Canal cleaned up. A ton of weak offshore flow/cold air damming events that winter. 

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55 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The only place that had a good snow event during the 2007-08 winter was EUGENE! And some convergence zone areas in late April.

You mean the only place under 500'? Or are you just counting 6"+ as a good snow event?

I believe the Olympia area and other parts of South Sound and Hood Canal did decent with snowfall for the winter, though of course none of it stuck around long. Bunch of days in December with highs in the mid 30s and plenty of precip. 

Then late Jan 2008 was a classic near miss with continental cold and a ULL that dove just a bit too far offshore. Believe OLM also scored some snow with that, though. 

I believe Bellingham area also scored some snow in late March 2008, late January, and a little in December as well with some very chilly days.

But yeah...just a few tweaks and nudges in the pattern and that winter could have been so much better in the lowlands.

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10 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

You mean the only place under 500'? Or are you just counting 6"+ as a good snow event?

I believe the Olympia area and other parts of South Sound and Hood Canal did decent with snowfall for the winter, though of course none of it stuck around long. Bunch of days in December with highs in the mid 30s and plenty of precip. 

Then late Jan 2008 was a classic near miss with continental cold and a ULL that dove just a bit too far offshore. Believe OLM also scored some snow with that, though. 

I believe Bellingham area also scored some snow in late March 2008, late January, and a little in December as well with some very chilly days.

But yeah...just a few tweaks and nudges in the pattern and that winter could have been so much better in the lowlands.

A lot of spots in Eugene/Springfield are at or above 500 ft.

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2024-25 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 58F (Oct 22, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 30F (Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 1 (Most recent: Oct 24, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 0 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Last ice storm accumulation: Jan 16, 2024 (2.25”)
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Total ice since joining TheWeatherForums: 2.25"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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One heck of a North Pacific ridge over the next 9 days, extending from Japan to the Gulf of Alaska!  This has only developed on models over the last few days. 

Then models want to build in a +EPO for the last few days of October, and keep it around for a little while. 

Both +WPO and +EPO patterns are nothing new. Let's see if they fluctuate closer to the Winter.  My correlations for +WPO October does usually reverse for Dec-Jan. 

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38 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

That was such an odd winter. Seattle had all of these minor events where it snowed lightly for hours without amounting to much. The strangest one was on March 28. It snowed all afternoon but the grass barely got a trace. 

I actually did get sticking snow with the late March event.  Over an inch.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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21 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

A lot of spots in Eugene/Springfield are at or above 500 ft.

That's right.  I forgot about that.  Made all the difference that winter.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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14 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I actually did get sticking snow with the late March event.  Over an inch.

Wow! It must have been heavier snow to the south. 

The most frustrating moment of that winter was by far 4/18/08.  The convergence zone’s southern edge was literally 10 blocks north of my parents’ house. I saw a couple flakes falling…but that was it. 

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