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October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion


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2 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

76-77 and 98-99 are kinda gross

Keep in mind a 1976-77 type block would be west of what it was that was winter due to cold ENSO.  The result would incredible for us.  As it is Jan 1977 was pretty cold in parts of the NW.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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11 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

That's really unfortunate. Up here it's a much different story. While it's certainly been sunny like July or August, it's stayed mainly in the 60s for the most part. So definitely a phall pheel to the air. We're even starting to lose the leaves in Lake City.

The upper level height gradient shifts south as we approach the weekend so hopefully our weather translates down there as well.

I’m Portland, it’s changed from summer to “summer but with slightly chilly mornings”. 

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1 hour ago, Phil said:

I think there’ll be more SW flow and flatter ridging than currently modeled. Assuming I’m right (not a given) hard to see how that ends up delivering a cool departure anywhere up there.

Hope you're wrong.  That is my absolute least favorite pattern, but it almost always happens before it gets cold though.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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17 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Keep in mind a 1976-77 type block would be west of what it was that was winter due to cold ENSO.  The result would incredible for us.  As it is Jan 1977 was pretty cold in parts of the NW.

You seem pretty bullish on the potential this winter, even by your standards.  

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2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You seem pretty bullish on the potential this winter, even by your standards.  

Where the HP has been setting up all summer, it feels like there is a chance for it to drift further north during the winter. Cold shots seem like a pretty good bet. 

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7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

You seem pretty bullish on the potential this winter, even by your standards.  

The only concern I have is if all of the solar activity deamplifes the pattern.  No sign of that yet.  It's mainly the combination of highly amplified patterns across the globe and the cold ENSO /. +QBO combo that has me so optimistic.  I think this could be an amazing one...IF we don't lose the amplification.  The good news is we had two of the most severe cold waves I've ever witnessed in 1988-89 and 1990-91 during solar max.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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I guess we'll just have to wait and see. 

  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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32 minutes ago, Tenochtitlan said:

I’m Portland, it’s changed from summer to “summer but with slightly chilly mornings”. 

Shocking difference between SEA and PDX since September 10.

SEA has had 17 below normal days with 4 above normal

PDX has had 9 below normal days with 10 above normal.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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10 hours ago, Phil said:

Moved more stuff over to the apartment today and realized we can see our neighborhood from the balcony, 5.3 miles away circled in red.

IMG_9085.jpeg

Sold the house or moving out?

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1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Not sure I would call it historic if there was a similar one in 2017.

You can't wish away the solar max. We still haven't hit peak which looks to keep getting pushed out further and further.

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2 minutes ago, iFred said:

You can't wish away the solar max. We still haven't hit peak which looks to keep getting pushed out further and further.

Some people think the max already hit.  This is not a perfect science as you know.  Sunspot numbers are down from a few months ago.  Could go either way.  The SILSO site has projections that show we have reached peak.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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24 minutes ago, Snownerd3000 said:

@MossManMossMan thought you might enjoy this.

Oh brother.  I can't imagine it working well in a heavy snow event.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Tomorrow could be a pretty cool day.  Clear much of tonight and then rain tomorrow.  Then it clears out and gets cold again tomorrow night.

  • Shivering 2

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Unbelievable how the media lies about the weather.  Just saw a headline that says America braces for superstorm as hurricane Kirk strikes.  Problem is the hurricane won't even come close to hitting the US.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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5 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Unbelievable how the media lies about the weather.  Just saw a headline that says America braces for Kirk.  Problem is the hurricane won't even come close to hitting the US.

Link?

My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

Link?

Just cringe worthy.  Maybe it eventually says it's actually a nothing burger for inhabited areas, but the beginning of the article is ridiculous.  

US weather: America braces for 'major' superstorm as Hurricane Kirk strikes (msn.com)

  • Weenie 1

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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Why did I get a weenie?  The article is incredibly misleading.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Just cringe worthy.  Maybe it eventually says it's actually a nothing burger for inhabited areas, but the beginning of the article is ridiculous.  

US weather: America braces for 'major' superstorm as Hurricane Kirk strikes (msn.com)

I’m sure a random British article will be a game changer and have the east coast scrambling all weekend to prepare for landfall. A two second Google search seems to paint a much different picture. Take your Xanax.😵‍💫

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My preferences can beat up your preferences’ dad.

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29 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Unbelievable how the media lies about the weather.  Just saw a headline that says America braces for superstorm as hurricane Kirk strikes.  Problem is the hurricane won't even come close to hitting the US.

Or anyone lol 

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195572.png?1673757432

 

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The models are absolutely brutal right now. 

  • Popcorn 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Just now, Phishy Wx said:

Indian Summer, The Best!

 

 

Screenshot 2024-10-03 at 11.58.28 AM.png

Is that term somewhat dated now? Indigenous People's Summer is likely a more acceptable term.

  • lol 1
  • Weenie 1

Snowfall                                  Precip

2023-24: 39.5"                   2023-24: 76.88

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 73.43"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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24 minutes ago, iFred said:

That Southern Ocean barrier is shrinking right before our eyes.

It was just a few years ago we were seeing record high sea ice around Antarctica.  This stuff fluctuates a lot.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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26 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

The models are absolutely brutal right now. 

Pretty much to be expected at some point during a Nina autumn.  I hope it can find a way to get wetter later in the month.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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4 hours ago, Phil said:

This is absurd. Only Yellowstone can save us.

 

I’ll be going there tomorrow for the weekend. Not looking forward to the heat. 🤮

2024 Warm Season Stats

Number of 80+ days - 35

Number of 85+ days - 25

Number of 90+ days - 3

Number of 95+ days - 2 (Warmest - 96)

Number of 60+ lows - 6

 

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2 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

I see Arlington had their first freeze this morning.  Why that means anything to me I don't know.🙁

First freeze is always a neat thing.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2024-25 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.0

Coldest Low = 35

Lows 32 or below = 0

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 0

Highs 40 or below = 0

 

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7 minutes ago, Winterdog said:

Yeah I missed it this morning by a hair and could wait several more weeks for another shot at it.  

Only got down to 38 at my place, however lots of rooftop frost on my way to work I noticed! (Well lots in about 5 houses that I pass on the 1 mile drive to work) 

No frost at my place yet however. We did harvest our tomatoes yesterday, I am told they are amazing! I dislike tomatoes so I wouldn’t know. 

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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