October 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Alright peeps. Hint me with the winter predictions. I'll go:

Vancouver: 11in

Seattle: 8in

Tacoma to Oly: 14in  (kinda due for a South Puget Sound Special).

Portland: 5.5in

East Stanwood at 550’: 36”

Seattle: Trace

Portland 0.00” 

[Gradient Keeper]

6 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Alright peeps. Hint me with the winter predictions. I'll go:

Vancouver: 11in

Seattle: 8in

Tacoma to Oly: 14in  (kinda due for a South Puget Sound Special).

Portland: 5.5in

Vancouver: 9-15"
Seattle: 6-12"
Tacoma - Olympia: 8-14"
Portland: 2-39" (my annual snowfall prediction)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 4

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 5

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 6

(4-run trend)

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 7

(4-run trend)

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 7

(4-run trend)

Really hard for a +PNA to get going at all these days. 

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 8

[Phishy Wx]

8 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Sun finally coming out here.  doubt we make the 55 forecasted high.  we'll see

Nope got to 46

[Gradient Keeper]

5 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Nope got to 46

The sun this time of year just struggles to burn off low clouds. It's the most wonderful time of the year, inversion season.

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 9'er

[Gradient Keeper]

Day 10

[StormchaserChuck1]

Just now, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Big storm in the Caribbean..

[Gradient Keeper]

Just now, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Big storm in the Carribean..

Yep, and moving towards the Yucutan it appears. Hopefully being that far out this simply won't come to fruition.

[Phishy Wx]

47 minutes ago, MossMan said:

East Stanwood at 550’: 36”

Seattle: Trace

Portland 0.00” 

west of the cascades: WGAF

Spokane: 101"

[AlTahoe]

Just now, Phishy Wx said:

west of the cascades: WGAF

Spokane: 101"

I am going with 180" for my house. 

[Phishy Wx]

5 minutes ago, Gradient Keeper said:

Day 10

Election Day cane in FL?

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS re-cap. 10 Day GIFs: 500mb Height Anomaly, 850mb Temps, 1000-500mb Thickness/MSLP/Precip

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GFS 10 Day Rainfall, Snowfall totals

[Gradient Keeper]

00z GEM 10 Day GIF: 500mb Height Anomaly. Definite La Nina pattern taking hold.

[Gradient Keeper]

7 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Election Day cane in FL?

Hard pass! Let's be done with the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

[snow_wizard]

Seeing a lot of chilly and fairly dry weather on the GFS.  Looks like the jet is already taking a big hit this season.

[StormchaserChuck1]

A lot of GFS ensembles have the storm in the Caribbean at Day 7.

[Tanis Leach]

1 hour ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Alright peeps. Hint me with the winter predictions. I'll go:

Vancouver: 11in

Seattle: 8in

Tacoma to Oly: 14in  (kinda due for a South Puget Sound Special).

Portland: 5.5in

Don't have enough data for Seattle or Vancouver via analog formula. I would say 10 inches in Seattle, 15 in Vancouver going by extrapolated guess via what I think for Portland and the patterns I expect. 

Via my video:

Portland best estimate: 9" 

Eugene best estimate: 11"

[Gradient Keeper]

10 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

A lot of GFS ensembles have the storm in the Caribbean at Day 7.

Yeah there are. 15 members have a storm of 1000mb or lower.

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

East Stanwood at 550’: 36”

Seattle: Trace

Portland 0.00” 

2007-08

[snow_wizard]

The SOI is definitely trying to make it's move.  5 consecutive days with big plus readings now.  30 day average close to +4 and rising fast.  Not sure why this Nina playing hard to get has bugged me so much.  Probably nothing more than I don't like to be wrong.

[snow_wizard]

30 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

A lot of GFS ensembles have the storm in the Caribbean at Day 7.

VERY late storm.

[snow_wizard]

16 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2007-08

Yuck.  

I don't think he liked 2007-08 either though.  Tim was the big winner on that one.

[snow_wizard]

21 minutes ago, Tanis Leach said:

Don't have enough data for Seattle or Vancouver via analog formula. I would say 10 inches in Seattle, 15 in Vancouver going by extrapolated guess via what I think for Portland and the patterns I expect. 

Via my video:

Portland best estimate: 9" 

Eugene best estimate: 11"

I like the fact you are putting some hard numbers out there.  It will be fun to see what happens!  I would sure like to see a big region wide winter so everyone can be happy.  

[snow_wizard]

Down to 41 here now.  We'll have to see if it can remain clear all night.

[StormchaserChuck1]

8 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

VERY late storm.

Timing is pretty good with a ridge overtop of the system. late in the year though, it would probably curve toward Florida. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Looks like it's 40F and clear out there.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

East Stanwood at 550’: 36”

Seattle: Trace

Portland 0.00” 

YVR 14"

MBY 22"

[ShawniganLake]

19 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Yuck.  

I don't think he liked 2007-08 either though.  Tim was the big winner on that one.

It was a decent season up here. 55” total snowfall but no really cold weather.  

[Meatyorologist]

YVR: 25"

KSEA: 18"

KPDX: 21"

[snow_wizard]

10 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

YVR: 25"

KSEA: 18"

KPDX: 21"

I think at least one of these places will hit at least what you're saying.  I think SEA is more due to be a big winner than the other two, but that bill may or may not be paid this winter.

[snow_wizard]

Currently 40 and crystal clear here.

[StormchaserChuck1]

I have a feeling the season is going to be a disappointment in the PNW. Mid latitude ridging has been the theme around the globe this year, and eventually it does kind of smooth out to all mid-latitude regions. The -PNA signal is awesome though, and maybe it will have constant staying power like what has been shown through Oct-Nov so far. I would say set expectations low, and there is a chance that you could have a real good Winter by your standards.  I would like to see more -EPO if I was to forecast something historic for you guys. 

[snow_wizard]

3 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

I have a feeling the season is going to be a disappointment in the PNW. Mid latitude ridging has been the theme around the globe this year, and eventually it does kind of smooth out to all mid-latitude regions. The -PNA signal is awesome though, and maybe it will have constant staying power like what has been shown through Oct-Nov so far. I would say set expectations low, and there is a chance that you could have a real good Winter by your standards. 

Yeah.  The only fear I have this winter is not enough amplitude.  Even if that happens I think it will still be a bit more blocky than 2007-08.  I'm pretty optimistic though.