Winter forecast 2024-2025

[StormchaserChuck1]

I have, over the years, developed a few tools that work with pretty high accuracy regarding the following Winter. 

First, where is the money and what is the "middle" of what people -- insurance companies, energy companies, etc., are predicting. 

Natural Gas Futures

Last year, the Natural Gas price in the Fall was extremely low, especially compared to Crude Oil/Gasoline, and this was a better predictor than seasonal models, which generally had a trough on the East Coast, US, from an expected El Nino pattern. 

Current Natural Gas price is $2.64. 

Here is a chart going back to 1998, highlighting the highest (blue) vs lowest (red) prices. 

Higher Natural Gas price should be linked to colder weather in the eastern US, and Europe. and Lower Natural Gas price should be linked to warmer weather in the eastern US, and Europe. 

Here are the Highest Natural Gas years (blue):

Here are the lower Natural Gas price years (red):

For October, here is where we rank:

1. 1998: $2.27

2. 2015: $2.3

3. 2019: $2.63

4. 2024: $2.64

5. 2023: $2.91

6. 1999: $2.95

 

26: 2006: $7.53

27: 2007: $8.33

28: 2004: $8.72

29: 2005: $12.2

 

Furthermore, because of inflation, the Crude Oil or Gasoline vs Natural Gas spread is a better gauge for relative value. 

We are currently #2 in this metric [since 1998], behind only last year (23-24). 

 

ENSO

I manually plotted all ENSO variables (200mb wind, 850mb wind, OLR, SSTs, SOI, pressure, MEI, etc.), and I found that the most correlated ENSO measurement to the North Pacific [PNA] pattern, is ENSO subsurface. This works at +0-time. 

Because of this, I use the subsurface primarily to determine what the ENSO state is, and is going to be for the Winter. Obviously, in the future, it could change, but right now we are completely Neutral. 

 

For most of the year so far, we have been in a "La Nina" in the subsurface: 

This has correlated with a -PNA pattern

Now that the subsurface has neutralized, the PNA is not correlating so highly

 

NAO

In 2005, I found that the N. Atlantic SSTs in a region from New Foundland to Greenland  from May-Sept has a high correlation to the following Winter's NAO. The correlation was almost 0.5 (or 75% of getting the sign right). I made a manual index of the region, and have followed its predictions every year since 2005. I estimated that this NAO predictor index has a 0.54SD at getting the Dec-March NAO correctly (+1.00 index is 50% odds of +0.46 to +1.54 DFJM NAO). In real time, that method has been 9-9 on the 0.54 SD since Inception, and it has gotten the phase correctly 13-5. That is real future time forecasting results. Here is what the index encompasses:

I weight the index as follows:

It's been working out great in real-time. 

This year, the index comes out at: 

Top area: ~0.0 (x1.00)

Bottom area: ~+0.8 (x0.65)

Total: +0.52

+0.52 NAO predictor for Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar. 

That means there is a 50% chance the DJFM NAO will be -0.02 to +1.06 (using 0.54 standard deviation)

That gives a 74% chance of the Winter DJFM NAO being Positive overall. 

 

 

PDO

I have been burned on the PDO! I do not think SSTs lead, I think they are more secondary to atmospheric conditions. But the last 4 years, and actually the last 30 years, the PDO has performed admirably. The mathematical odds are something like 1/100 for random to hit as much as the PDO has over this time. Because of that, I will give it some credence. 

CURRENT PDO IS NEAR -3. 

That is 2nd on record for October, going back to the early 1900s. Only 1955 had a lower October PDO.

Here is what PDO correlation looks like in the Winter (map default is the "+" phase, you have to flip it around to get a negative PDO correlation). 

Rolled-forward North American Temps

December 2023 to August 2024 was the warmest on record for the CONUS, due mostly to +EPO pattern. 

I made an analog list of 30 matching analogs (75 total years in dataset.. 30 analogs is 40%) and I got a really strong signal the following Nov-March. 

When you have 40% of the dataset used, you'd expect the anomalies to come out at +1F, but what I found was a much stronger signal than that:

Dec-June analogs:

Following Winter (40% of dataset!):

 

Mexican Heat Wave in May

Mexico crushed records in May. I found that similar analogs rolled above average temperatures to the eastern 1/2 of the CONUS for the following Sept-March. 

Phoenix Heat Wave

It's the warmest Sept 25 - Oct 13 in Phoenix all time. I think they broke their 2-week record by more than +7F!

I came up with 20 + analogs and found this for the following Winter rolled-forward:

Wintertime 10mb

QBO correlates with the Winter time 10mb state. When coupled with ENSO, its correlation is very strong. Going back to all records available, the correlation is 75% that +QBO/La Nina leads to a negative Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 75% that -QBO/El Nino leads to a positive Wintertime 10mb in the Northern Hemisphere. 

The QBO is currently +10 and rising. It will likely peak in the Winter. >10 events for the QBO are a strong phase. With La Nina tendencies occurring, although I'm not necessarily predicting a La Nina, I think the odds favor a cold 10mb N. Hemisphere vortex by about 2/3 or 67%. 

Cold 10mb is correlated to +AO conditions in the Wintertime. 

 

There are other things I have considered, that I may talk about later but here is my Winter forecast:

Winter Forecast

Temps:

Precip:

 

I'd put my confidence as follows:

vs 10-year average: 65%

vs 30-year average: 75-80%

vs 50 year average: 80-85%

[Phil]

Thanks for posting! Interesting, outside the box methodologies. Look forward to seeing how this performs.

[Black Hole]

Overall reasonable even if unfortunate I suspect that the trough will be centered a bit further east and that the northern plains will be fine this year, that may push the above normal precip axis further east as well. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

For me, the best analogs are 1998-99 (MEI match, drought conditions in mid-Atlantic, hurricane season activity), 2007-08 (best MEI/RONI match), 2016-17 (best ONI/RONI match, hurricane season activity), and 2020-21 (top MEI/RONI match):

 

[gabel_23]

NWS with their winter forecast; very La Nina of them!

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

 

[bud2380]

For those that are major proponents of the LRC, I'm curious since it has been a bone dry fall, and this is when the LRC pattern is supposed to take shape, shouldn't that mean this will be an abnormally dry winter as well? And likely well above normal temps like we have seen so far this fall?  In eastern Iowa we've had 0.2" of precip in the past 50 days.  If we extrapolate that out using the LRC, it's going to be a very boring winter.  And it's not just localized that we haven't seen rain, the entire midwest has been extremely dry, so the majority of us in the middle of the country may not have much to track this winter for storms.  Unless the LRC is wrong of course.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

I personally think dry weather in the Fall has a warmer than average temperature correlation, at like 0.1 to 0.2. But I don't necessarily think dry begets dry, based on how things have gone since 1998. I would say it favors warmer temps and near average to above average precip, at least for the Midwest and East. 

[Clinton]

3 hours ago, bud2380 said:

For those that are major proponents of the LRC, I'm curious since it has been a bone dry fall, and this is when the LRC pattern is supposed to take shape, shouldn't that mean this will be an abnormally dry winter as well? And likely well above normal temps like we have seen so far this fall?  In eastern Iowa we've had 0.2" of precip in the past 50 days.  If we extrapolate that out using the LRC, it's going to be a very boring winter.  And it's not just localized that we haven't seen rain, the entire midwest has been extremely dry, so the majority of us in the middle of the country may not have much to track this winter for storms.  Unless the LRC is wrong of course.  

I'll try and answer this the best I can.  First thing we are only 12 to 14 days into a new LRC pattern.  The cycle length to this pattern will likely be somewhere between 40 and 60 days, we can usually have it pinned down by the end of November. 

So far the first 2 weeks of the pattern have pretty much stunk but keep in mind that the jet stream will getting stronger and working south as we move into winter. Take for instance this cutoff low that's currently over the Southwest. It will likely not be cutoff in the next cycle due to a stronger jet stream and will probably swing through as a deep trough and produce some rain and snow across the plains.  There has also been some pretty nice blocking that has set up at times and as the snow pack builds across Canada the cold fronts will be stronger.

Also teleconnections will play a big part in the pattern.  The MJO has been in warm and dry phases but is headed toward a cooler wetter phase 7 as we get to November so maybe that will help out.  We have a lot of this pattern left so it's too early at this point to draw any conclusions other than there will be at least some northwest flow.  Let's not punt just yet.

[westMJim]

We still have a while to go, and we do not know how this winter will play out.  Last winter Grand Rapids had its 2nd warmest December on record with a mean of 38.3 January had a mean of 27.1 and February had a mean of 35.4 good for the warmest February on record. The meteorological winter had a mean of 33.6. The winter season (October to April) only had 47.5” of snowfall with 31.3” of that falling in January with most of that falling in a two week period. Since 1950 all winters that had less than 50” of snowfall had more snowfall the next winter. So that is a good guess for this winter that more than 50” will fall. That said here is a list of winter weather Warnings and Advisories  criteria.  I will try to post this information again as we get closer tot the winter season.

Winter weather related Warnings, Watches and Advisories are issued by your local National Weather Service office. Each office knows the local area and will issue Warnings, Watches or Advisories based on local criteria. For example, the amount of snow that triggers a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Northern Plains is typically much higher than the amount needed to trigger a “Winter Storm Warning” in the Southeast.

Blizzard Warnings are issued for frequent gusts greater than or equal to 35 mph accompanied by falling and/or blowing snow, frequently reducing visibility to less than 1/4 mile for three hours or more. A Blizzard Warning means severe winter weather conditions are expected or occurring. Falling and blowing snow with strong winds and poor visibilities are likely, leading to whiteout conditions making travel extremely difficult. Do not travel. If you must travel, have a winter survival kit with you. If you get stranded, stay with your vehicle and wait for help to arrive.

Winter Storm Warnings are issued for a significant winter weather event including snow, ice, sleet or blowing snow or a combination of these hazards.  Travel will become difficult or impossible in some situations. Delay your travel plans until conditions improve.

Ice Storm Warnings are usually issued for ice accumulation of around 1/4 inch or more. This amount of ice accumulation will make travel dangerous or impossible and likely lead to snapped power lines and falling tree branches. Travel is strongly discouraged.

Wind Chill Warnings are issued for a combination of very cold air and strong winds that will create dangerously low wind chill values. This level of wind chill will result in frostbite and lead to hypothermia if precautions are not taken. Avoid going outdoors and wear warm protective clothing if you must venture outside. See the NWS Wind Chill Chart.

Lake Effect Snow Warnings are issued when widespread or localized lake induced snow squalls or heavy showers are expected to produce significant snowfall accumulation. Lake effect snow usually develops in narrow bands and impacts a limited area. These bands can produce very heavy snow with sudden restrictions in visibility. Driving conditions may become hazardous at times.

And for advisories

Winter Weather Advisories are issued when snow, blowing snow, ice, sleet, or a combination of these wintry elements is expected but conditions should not be hazardous enough to meet warning criteria.  Be prepared for winter driving conditions and possible travel difficulties. Use caution when driving.

Wind Chill Advisories are issued when low wind chill temperatures are expected but will not reach local warning criteria. Extremely cold air and strong winds will combine to generate low wind chill readings. If you must venture outdoors, take precautions against frostbite and hypothermia.

Lake Effect Snow Advisory are issued for widespread or localized lake effect snowfall accumulation (and blowing snow) remaining below warning criteria. Expects lake effect snow showers and assume travel will be difficult in some areas. Some localized snow bands will be intense enough to produce several inches in a few areas with sudden restrictions in visibility.

[bud2380]

On 10/18/2024 at 6:34 PM, Clinton said:

I'll try and answer this the best I can.  First thing we are only 12 to 14 days into a new LRC pattern.  The cycle length to this pattern will likely be somewhere between 40 and 60 days, we can usually have it pinned down by the end of November. 

So far the first 2 weeks of the pattern have pretty much stunk but keep in mind that the jet stream will getting stronger and working south as we move into winter. Take for instance this cutoff low that's currently over the Southwest. It will likely not be cutoff in the next cycle due to a stronger jet stream and will probably swing through as a deep trough and produce some rain and snow across the plains.  There has also been some pretty nice blocking that has set up at times and as the snow pack builds across Canada the cold fronts will be stronger.

Also teleconnections will play a big part in the pattern.  The MJO has been in warm and dry phases but is headed toward a cooler wetter phase 7 as we get to November so maybe that will help out.  We have a lot of this pattern left so it's too early at this point to draw any conclusions other than there will be at least some northwest flow.  Let's not punt just yet.

I appreciate the response and hopefully you are right, otherwise it will be pretty boring in here.  The extreme dryness we have experienced and the well above normal temperatures so far this fall gives me a lot of concern though that this will linger especially into the early part of winter.  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, bud2380 said:

I appreciate the response and hopefully you are right, otherwise it will be pretty boring in here.  The extreme dryness we have experienced and the well above normal temperatures so far this fall gives me a lot of concern though that this will linger especially into the early part of winter.  

I'm concerned also, hopefully we see something at the end of the month or early November or we'll be in for a long dry year ahead.

[Jayhawker85]

8 hours ago, Clinton said:

I'm concerned also, hopefully we see something at the end of the month or early November or we'll be in for a long dry year ahead.

This warm and dry pattern is very concerning for cold and snow enthusiasts here in the Midwest. Yes we are just over 2 weeks into the new pattern but this is the time where long term troughs and ridges begin to setup and repeat. I also have concerns about a worsening drought and lack of surface moisture but i will get into that in a few weeks. 
 

I think it’s too early to say how winter will play out but if the pattern doesn’t change in the next 2 weeks then I may be packing up my bags to spend a few months in Canada lol 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Easily one of the warmest October-November's on record for the CONUS happening this year.  It might finish #1.  I did an analog research, coming up with 30 matching analogs since 1948.

Base period, October-Nov:

 

Following December:

Following January

 

Following February

 

Following March

 

Precip

[Andie]

On 10/21/2024 at 11:22 AM, Clinton said:

I'm concerned also, hopefully we see something at the end of the month or early November or we'll be in for a long dry year ahead.

I hope it turns soon as well. It’s terribly dry in Texas.  I’m concerned we’ll see grassfires in winter as well as spring.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 hours ago, Andie said:

I hope it turns soon as well. It’s terribly dry in Texas.  I’m concerned we’ll see grassfires in winter as well as spring.  

Wonder why we like flipped a switch in January this year..Today for example, with strength of storm systems and humidity, there should be more clouds in the sky.. Will be interesting to see if it continues through the Winter. I thought we were done in the east, but today was an anomalously dry day. 

[Andie]

I’m having to water much as I did in summer to keep the dry die off away when it freezes.  
Just crazy.  
We need rain so bad.  

[jaster220]

On 11/6/2024 at 2:54 PM, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Easily one of the warmest October-November's on record for the CONUS happening this year.  It might finish #1.  I did an analog research, coming up with 30 matching analogs since 1948.

Base period, October-Nov:

 

Following December:

Following January

 

Following February

 

Following March

 

Precip

THIS was January of '77 ???

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

THIS was January of '77 ???

I used + and - analogs

If I put a minus sign in front of the analog it gives the opposite result. 

So if Oct-Nov 1977 was cold, it's (-)77-78. Matches it up with the current anomaly. 

15 positive analogs. 15 negative analogs. 30 total. negative analogs are [opposite], to match that this Oct-Nov is warmest. 

[Clinton]

Here's the latest CfSv2 winter forecast. 

[Tom]

24 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Here's the latest CfSv2 winter forecast. 

This would end up being a BIG surprise Winter for pretty much everyone on here.  I'm stoked for my family back in Chicago.  My gut tells me its going to be one heck of a Winter compared to the previous 5 years.  I'm having '13-'14 vibes!

Just look at how much the DEC forecast has flipped off the CFSv2...

Hello Blocking...

[gimmesnow]

Friday to the end of the 10 day forecast is prime snow making weather for the great lakes. Resorts should be open quickly after Thanksgiving this year.

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Here's the latest CfSv2 winter forecast. 

Love the darker shades of green over NMI. Is it even possible to be an island of "avg" in a sea of BN temps?? Just looks odd, but one way that can happen is endless LES/clouds prohibiting the tanking of low temps you will see elsewhere during arctic outbreaks. Generally tho, interior areas will still get cold. During the 7 week bitter cold wave of Jan/Feb 1994 we were "only" -25F in Traverse while at work in Grayling was -35F or -40F. LES was non-stop but didn't go too far inland because it waited until Jan. Nov/Dec LES will normally go further inland and skip over the still warm lakeshore counties.

[Hoosier]

5 hours ago, Clinton said:

Here's the latest CfSv2 winter forecast. 

Weird cold blob around Lake Michigan.

[Tom]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Weird cold blob around Lake Michigan.

I’ve seen that look before in the CFSv2 which interpreted into a strong lake effect signal and deep snow OTG. 

[Hoosier]

19 minutes ago, Tom said:

I’ve seen that look before in the CFSv2 which interpreted into a strong lake effect signal and deep snow OTG. 

Not sure I buy that.  It's not just a little colder, it's way colder than anything surrounding it. 

While the lake effect is occurring, it would be likely to keep the temps elevated downwind of Lake Michigan with the flow off of the relatively warmer water.  It could be colder at other times when the lake isn't in play and there's extra fresh snowcover, but those 2 things would probably tend to cancel out.  

Also, I would bet there are very few seasons, if any, where the northwest Indiana "belt" outsnows the western Michigan belt over an entire season.  Individual events, sure, because the lake can absolutely dump when the flow is more northerly, but the quantity of those events is less than it is farther up the shore.  

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

I’ve seen that look before in the CFSv2 which interpreted into a strong lake effect signal and deep snow OTG. 

and yet, it has BN precip there in NWIN. Doesn't really line up tho as you said before, models aren't very good at signaling LES. It's funny, when I saw @Clinton's post earlier I totally missed that. My eyes just went to NMI and it's whiteness of avg temps.