November 2024 Observations and Discussion

[Tom]

It's been quite a while since I've started a monthly thread but today I felt the need to do so.  As our Nation sets our sights on Election Day (November 5th), is there a storm brewing?  What will this month entail?  Will the SW Flow be a dominant Flow this month?  I'm certain it will be quite an active month and one that should definitely deliver some excitement in the weather front.  I'm ready, ya'll ready??

IMHO, this month is going to deliver some early snows up north and quite possibly over the central CONUS during the Thanksgiving Holiday season.  Cutter Season starting early?  I'm seeing an early and STRONG signal using the BSR that suggests an active parade of systems coming out of the 4 corners region.  Another BIG clue, one that has been very accurate in the past, is the way the storms are tracking this year down and along the west coast and digging DEEP into So Cal/Arizona.  The storm I'm tracking for next weekend is yet again cutting off from the main flow down into So Cal/AZ region and slowly lifting into the 4 corners.

0z EPS...

 

I like what I'm seeing off the latest run from the CFSv2 which is starting to HONE in on a trough signal near the N Baja/SoCal region...this is going to be a quintessential element of the new LRC.  It's also trending away from an Alaskan/NW NAMER Trough in recent runs which bodes well to seed the cold into the U.S.  Lot's to discuss over the next number of day/weeks.  I'm sure it's going to get rather busy on this SUB....Lesss Gooo!!

 

Trends...

 

 

[tStacsh]

Might be able to get some more golf in through mid-november.   

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, tStacsh said:

Might be able to get some more golf in through mid-november.   

Nice weather in the Northland outlasted the season and now the courses are closed.

[Tom]

"The Southwest to Midwest Connection"...you can't ask for a better signal for a Strong SW Flow...my goodness, this storm showing for this coming weekend and eventually into the heartland is looking mighty fine for a LOT of the region.

 CFSv2 trending quite wet...

 

 

[tStacsh]

15 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Nice weather in the Northland outlasted the season and now the courses are closed.

Courses will usually stay open here as long as there is no snow and relatively warm.  I believe I golfed  around Dec 23rd?   in 2020.   That's clearly the latest in the year I've done that.   Temps were pushing mid 50's  and it was humid.   I remember in the early 2000's in early december as well temps were in the mid to upper 60's.   I golfed as well and it felt warm.    Can't remember the year. 

 

EDIT:  Found it  2001 on December 5th it was 68 officially.  In GR.  I was in shorts golfing.  

[Black Hole]

Drought buster storms still on track. Probably 0.5-1" tonight for most and then another 2-4" or maybe more Saturday to Tuesday. 

[Black Hole]

 

Here are the SPC outlooks for day 4-5 showing the severe risk as the upper level shear gets cranking. Then WPC outlooks showing marginal to slight risk of excessive rain for multiple days in the area. 

 

[Black Hole]

Overall the pattern will be characterized by moist southwesterly flow with good shear and diffluence aloft. It'll persist for several days.

EPS mean is 4" here, with totals mostly in the 3-5" range. I'd assume this is an overestimation in a general sense, but definitely possible if we get a few rounds of storms to track over the area.

Many rounds of storms will pass through the southern and central plains, with each model looking a bit different, so confidence is low in the details and we need to get a bit closer to see what we are really working with.

 

[Hoosier]

So you're telling me it's gonna be warm (and wet?)

 

 

[Clinton]

This on top of the 1.5 lastnight would send me from drought to a swamp in 4 days.

[ATW]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

This on top of the 1.5 lastnight would send me from drought to a swamp in 4 days.

Yessir. I’m in Columbia, Mo and received about 1.25” last night. Ready for more this weekend and early next week. 

[Clinton]

18 minutes ago, ATW said:

Yessir. I’m in Columbia, Mo and received about 1.25” last night. Ready for more this weekend and early next week. 

I couldn't take one more dry, hot, windy day.  Glad we're seeing a change.  

 

[tStacsh]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

So you're telling me it's gonna be warm (and wet?)

 

 

No cold November.   Good.  Let's keep it saved for December.  

[Clinton]

The WPC's outlook showing some drought busting rains over the next 4 days for Oklahoma and Missouri. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Happy November! 7am, and it's 63 degrees. I have the windows open, enjoying the warm, humid air. It got up to 80 yesterday, and looks to get close to that again today. 

[westMJim]

Welcome to November. The summery for October 2024 at Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 54.4° that is a departure of +3.4. The high for the month was 79 on the 11th 29th and 30th new record highs were set on the 29th and 30th the low for the month was 29 on the 27th a new record warmest low of 65 was set on the 30th. There were 12 days with highs of 70 or better. There was 1.28” of rainfall that is a departure of -2.74” there was no snowfall.

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 70/47 it was the 9th warmest Halloween and the warmest since 1979.  there was 0.02” of rainfall the highest wind was 46 MPH out of the W. There was just 2% of possible sunshine. For today the average H/L is 57/37 the record high of 81 was set in 1950 the record low of 21 was set in 1976. The most rainfall of 1.24” fell in 1982 the most snowfall of 4.0” fell in 1912.

 

[westMJim]

Some weather history for today across Michigan.

1950: Warm weather starts the month with temperatures around 80 degrees across Lower Michigan. Lansing sets their record high for November at 81 degrees.

1976: Cold weather will rule this month across Lower Michigan. Grand Rapids sets a record low of 21 degrees to start the coldest November on record there.

On November 1, 1950, the temperature rose to 81 degrees in Detroit, 79 in Flint, and 80 in Saginaw. All three cities recorded their maximum temperatures for the month of November. The Flint record would later be broken in 2015.

[StormchaserChuck1]

Huge rainbow in the sky this morning, on the other side of a fantastic sunrise!  Rainshowers didn't make it to the ground, but the clouds carried purples, pinks, and orange across the sky.

[Niko]

Holy Smokes! This beautiful autumn continues into November. Let the good stuff come in December!!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

Holy Smokes! This beautiful autumn continues into November. Let the good stuff come in December!!

Ya, it looks like my area into So Cal/4 corners will be stealing the cooler/colder weather...I'll say this though,  as long as the parade of storms systems keep digging like they are, it will certainly bode well for the majority of our Sub in the central/southern areas and into the lower lakes/OHV.  It appears to me, that a LRC Hot Spot is setting up right in the heart of the LRC when it really counts. 

In due time, the STJ fires up and shifts south and we could be seriously looking at a firehouse pattern when this cycles through in the colder months.  This SW Flow pattern that has just set up this week looks like it has the potential to be a Long Duration moist and active 10+ day pattern.  Maybe even longer?  Like you said in an earlier post, you guys have had a wonderful Autumn.  My sister agrees with you!  Keep the cold when it counts and let me area take a break from the Heat and Above normal temps for a change!

 

Here is CPC's take...

 

 

 

[Black Hole]

WPC precipitation, which NWS offices have to use, is too high showing upwards of 9" in Tulsa. Ensemble guidance is more reasonable at 4-6" with locally higher amounts. 

 

Either way, this will put us above normal for the month in the first 5 days, so its an easy call to say November will be above normal precip

[Tom]

Literally, every single LR model/global is indicating quite the Fast Start to Winter for the Intermountain West...Most, if not all, Ski Resorts will be opening up for Thanksgiving holiday week and I would not be surprised to see the CO Rockies with a pretty significant base.  That's what you want to see for the Colorado Basin where we get most of our water from.  Keep it comin'!

[Minny_Weather]

First flakes of the season: 11/1 @ 1:56 PM

[jaster220]

LER showers/breezy/42F = genuine raw start to November here in Graying

[Minny_Weather]

4 hours ago, Minny_Weather said:

First flakes of the season: 11/1 @ 1:56 PM

This amounted to nothing, btw. Was nice to officially note that though as it doesn't look like I'll have another opportunity for flakes in at least the next 2 weeks. Nice amount of rain, though.

[hawkstwelve]

Unfortunately it looks like I'll be on the northern edge of the more beneficial rains. Thankfully we were able to score 0.52 yesterday, our highest daily rainfall total since 8/27. At least I'll have an outside chance at getting an inch+ over the next 10 days. We'll take what we can get at this point.

Regardless of the eventual totals, it's been nice to have some cloudy days recently. All the sun and warmth over the past couple months has made it feel like an extended summer. Now that we have some chill in the air and some clouds, it gets you in the mood for the holidays.

[westMJim]

Do not forget to change your clocks that do not change by them selves before you go to bed tonight to “Wintertime” or as the old saying was “fall back”

The official H/L yesterday at Grand Rapids was 50/34 there was 0.02” of rainfall the sun was out 29% of the possible time. The highest wind gust was 36MPH out of the W. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 77 was set in 1938 the coldest high of 31 was set in 1951 the record low of 18 was also set in 1951. The warmest low of 60 was set in 1936. The most rainfall of 2.69” fell in 2003 the most snowfall of 1.5” fell in 1991. Last year the H/L was 52/36. The overnight low so far here in MBY is 29 and that is the current reading with clear skies.

[Clinton]

All models except the Euro predicting a big time rain event here starting tonight.  4 to 6 inch with locally higher amounts possible by Tuesday evening. 

[Tom]

I've been enjoying a string of crisp, cool mornings w/ temps in the upper 40's.  Wow, what a change in the weather patter out here guys.  You can't even fathom how much of a difference this feels after the Long Hot summer.  This is the type of pattern change I experienced a few years back and I remember vividly what that Winter turned out to be.  In fact, I think it also was a weak La Nina (maybe moderate).  That year ended up being an extended Summer well into OCT and then BAM, I had to turn the Furnace ON.  This year is a little later and not the big of a shock, initially, but I suspect later this weekend on Sun or early next week I'll have the Furnace On as temps could really dip into low 40's w/ highs in the low 60's?  

I would really be stoked to see an active Winter this season compared to what NOAA is suggesting.  So far, I'm rather optimistic for a wetter winter out here and into the 4 corners region.

Meantime,  the models are cutting off another strong ULL into the 4 corners later on WED into FRI.  More Heavy SN for the Mountain areas and the Denver area could really walloped!

0z Euro not backing down...#ColoradoSnowMagnet

 

[Black Hole]

Here is the general state of the models. Pretty good agreement in their being two main events, tonight and tomorrow night. The majority of models have one event from central OK up towards the OK/KS border in NE OK. The 2nd event is from south-central OK up to east-central OK and beyond. In a few models those events overlap and that is where you get the really loopy totals. For the most part a general 2-6" with localized 8-10" sounds about right. 

[Tom]

Road trip anyone???

[Andie]

75*. Overcast.  
50% chance rain.  
Increasing rain chances through Monday.  

[Black Hole]

1.66" so far this evening at my place with lots of rain to come tonight. It will be interesting to see how high we end up. 

[westMJim]

Welcome to “wintertime” that is if you changed your clocks. The official H/L yesterday was 55/28 there was no rainfall the sun was out 94% of the time. The peak wind was just 10MPH out of the S. For today the average H/L is 53/37 the record high of 76 was in 1938 and 2015 the coldest high of 23 was set in 1991. The record low of 17 was set in 1951 the warmest low of 59 was set in 1938. The most rainfall of 2.17” fell in 1935. The most snowfall is 10.4” in 1991 the most on the ground is 6” in 1966. Last year the H/L was 57/42.

[westMJim]

Some weather history in southern lower Michigan

1966: A record early-season snowstorm drops 6 to 12 inches of snow across southwest Lower Michigan.

1990: Heavy fog resulted in a fatal aircraft accident near Shelby, Michigan. A private plane trying to land at the local airport in the fog stalled and crashed, killing the pilot.

On November 3, 1951, an early cold snap on the 2nd through the 6th brought several record lows to southeast Michigan. Detroit had 22 degrees on the 2nd and 16 degrees on the 3rd. Flint had 20 degrees on the 2nd, 12 degrees on the 3rd, 14 degrees on the 5th, 13 degrees on the 6th and Saginaw had 18 degrees on the 2nd, 12 degrees on the 3rd, 16 degrees on the 4th, 12 degrees on the 5th and 14 degrees on the 6th.

[Clinton]

Rain and thunderstorms are ongoing here this morning with .79 inches falling overnight. 3-6 additional inches still seem likely by Tuesday morning.  Up to 10 inches of rain looks possible over the Missouri Ozarks. This will be an exciting part of the pattern going forward!

[Hawkeye]

I picked up 1.11" overnight.  The next wave is lifting up into Iowa this morning.  I'm hoping to get to 2".

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Rain and thunderstorms are ongoing here this morning with .79 inches falling overnight. 3-6 additional inches still seem likely by Tuesday morning.  Up to 10 inches of rain looks possible over the Missouri Ozarks. This will be an exciting part of the pattern going forward!

This part of the LRC pattern should deliver the Goods for both your area and mine out here.  Last evening, a wave of moderate showers formed over the West valley and tracked into the central/northern parts of the valley.  I was shocked to hear the sound of the rain falling on my roof!  It was sooo nice and refreshing to hear the sound of rain.  The sweet smell of Sonoran desert this morning is wonderful!

[Clinton]

7 minutes ago, Tom said:

This part of the LRC pattern should deliver the Goods for both your area and mine out here.  Last evening, a wave of moderate showers formed over the West valley and tracked into the central/northern parts of the valley.  I was shocked to hear the sound of the rain falling on my roof!  It was sooo nice and refreshing to hear the sound of rain.  The sweet smell of Sonoran desert this morning is wonderful!

Looks like it will be trending quite cool your way.  Models show this trough continuing to reload.

[Tom]

I'm going to soak this up folks....a week of temps much BN...a remarkable difference from what I've endured.  How many weeks have I seen temps 10F+ AN while I was dreaming of this to manifest and its finally coming!