November 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Yeah it's an hour early, but the models also will be too starting Sunday. Let the regular season begin! Let's not go full Jets please.

Best of luck to the region! Let's hope mother nature bestows upon us a winter wonderland.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Chilly here in a week or so.

[LowerGarfield]

I fell asleep for four hours but I'm awake now. We had 24 trick or treaters. It started raining the moment my son and I left and started tampering off 5 minutes before we got back. Only had about .05 but it was enough to make our coats wet and the m&m's too.

My parents in CA in a large city were in that sweet spot because the poor neighborhoods trick or treat there because it is safe compared the high crime elsewhere. The rich kids come there because their neighborhoods are very hilly with elevations in the 1k-2k range with lower density

. As kids,  my brother's friend from the hills always trick or treated in our neighborhood. They have a lot of little hills with lots of stairs but closer together. 

Wondering if I have more rain in the overnight hours.

[StormchaserChuck1]

MJO has been active through the 2nd half of October. A few models have it staying strong through November. 

Some years, like 03-04, 77-78, 79-80, it just stays active through the entire Winter. That's always an interesting thing to observe, although lately it's been more a rare occurrence. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

SOI hasn't broken higher than +5 monthly since March 2023, after having 37 consecutive positive months, 2020-2023. 

SOI values for 1 Nov, 2024
Average SOI for last 30 days	4.50
Average SOI for last 90 days	3.94
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	3.37

ENSO subsurface on Tao/Triton remains completely Neutral

Which is interesting, because this drought map is very La Nina-ish

^We actually haven't seen much of anything that widespread since 2002, and rarely since the 1990s. It's more 1960s-ish, imo. 

(below is a map of anti-Strong nino's in the Winter time, showing pure La Nina's effects)

-PNA has been more persistent too, so we are getting some La Nina patterns, despite weak ENSO SSTs, subsurface, and SOI. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Wet morning 

[MossMan]

.58” so far on the day.

Raining and 42 degrees. 

[the_convergence_zone]

It’s coming 

[MossMan]

It’s going to be a November to remember! 

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

MJO has been active through the 2nd half of October. A few models have it staying strong through November. 

Some years, like 03-04, 77-78, 79-80, it just stays active through the entire Winter. That's always an interesting thing to observe, although lately it's been more a rare occurrence. 

Would probably mean an amplified regime if this continues.

[Jawbone]

Had a low of 44 with .41" of rain yesterday bringing my total rain to 6.21".  Currently 46 with light rain.  I notice my Davis app forecast says a low of 31 on the 6th and a low of 28 on the 7th.  There goes the dahlias.

[snow_wizard]

5 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

SOI hasn't broken higher than +5 monthly since March 2023, after having 37 consecutive positive months, 2020-2023. 

SOI values for 1 Nov, 2024
Average SOI for last 30 days	4.50
Average SOI for last 90 days	3.94
Daily contribution to SOI calculation	3.37

ENSO subsurface on Tao/Triton remains completely Neutral

Which is interesting, because this drought map is very La Nina-ish

^We actually haven't seen much of anything that widespread since 2002, and rarely since the 1990s. It's more 1960s-ish, imo. 

(below is a map of anti-Strong nino's in the Winter time, showing pure La Nina's effects)

-PNA has been more persistent too, so we are getting some La Nina patterns, despite weak ENSO SSTs, subsurface, and SOI. 

Good stuff.  The SOI keeps trying to rally and then it just kind of flops.  Really different than what we've seen in recent years.

[snow_wizard]

Just now, Winterdog said:

Had a low of 44 with .41" of rain yesterday bringing my total rain to 6.21".  Currently 46 with light rain.  I notice my Davis app forecast says a low of 31 on the 6th and a low of 28 on the 7th.  There goes the dahlias.

That trough next week is trending colder on every run right now.  Looks good for some frost.

[snow_wizard]

Another great CFS run for Janaury.

[snow_wizard]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to be a November to remember! 

Maybe.  Still far from convinced though.

[Slushy Inch]

Strong winds with next system 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Horrific weather out there this morning. Had to stop and help several folx pull a tree off the road this morning on the way in. Ended up with 6.23" of rain in October which is about average, already over 1/2" on the month. 

SLE ended up with slightly above normal precip and well above normal temps. PDX ended up +2F as well.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Willamette Basin snowpack is 2000% of normal.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

25" snow depth at Timberline. Even more impressive 17.5" at Hoodoo at Santiam Pass. 

[RentonHill]

Scandinavian ridge

 

[Slushy Inch]

2 hours ago, MossMan said:

It’s going to be a November to remember! 

Nice to have a November thats not just a bunch of ARs

[ShawniganLake]

Good start to the Snowpack season in Vancouver island. 
 

 

[seattleweatherguy]

39 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Strong winds with next system 

Windy all over western wa 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Finished October with 3.78” of rain. 0.25” here so far this morning after a low of 46. 

[the_convergence_zone]

9 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Nice to have a November thats not just a bunch of ARs

I was just thinking that early season mountain snow usually gets washed out by an AR, but there's no sign of that in the next 2 weeks at least. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Finished October with 3.78” of rain. 0.25” here so far this morning after a low of 46. 

Ended up with 4.22" here which is a bit below normal.  Monthly average was 52.0 which is just a few tenths above normal.  Currently a pretty chilly 44.

[ShawniganLake]

43 minutes ago, SilverFallsAndrew said:

Horrific weather out there this morning. Had to stop and help several folx pull a tree off the road this morning on the way in. Ended up with 6.23" of rain in October which is about average, already over 1/2" on the month. 

SLE ended up with slightly above normal precip and well above normal temps. PDX ended up +2F as well.

Sounds beautiful.  I know Oregon is always thirsty for every drop of rain it can get. 

[snow_wizard]

Next week's tough is a little colder yet on the 12z GFS.

[Jbolin]

57 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

Another great CFS run for Janaury.

If we can manage to get the deepest cold pool over WA/OR and we'd be in business

[Jbolin]

19 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

Scandinavian ridge

 

RIP Tromso'

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, snow_wizard said:

Ended up with 4.22" here which is a bit below normal.  Monthly average was 52.0 which is just a few tenths above normal.  Currently a pretty chilly 44.

Yeah, overall I’d say this October was nearly climo. Drier first half progressively getting wetter and cooler in the second half. This fall has been as normal as it gets… just a tad drier than normal so far but barely. 

[GobBluth]

A little surprised we haven't seen the NWS come in with a last minute CYA wind advisory.

[snow_wizard]

13 minutes ago, TacomaWx said:

Yeah, overall I’d say this October was nearly climo. Drier first half progressively getting wetter and cooler in the second half. This fall has been as normal as it gets… just a tad drier than normal so far but barely. 

It was a bit out of the ordinary that more places didn't get their first freeze.  Looks like that is coming soon though.

[ShawniganLake]

We are back on frost watch.  

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

Strong winds with next system 

Windshadow'd again. This is irritating.

[snow_wizard]

15 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

A little surprised we haven't seen the NWS come in with a last minute CYA wind advisory.

A lot of places won't get very windy with this setup.

[Kolk1604]

28 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

It was a bit out of the ordinary that more places didn't get their first freeze.  Looks like that is coming soon though.

While I was looking outside early this morning, I was thinking about that and I'm cool with it. 

It was a little chilly, a bit of a breeze and raining. That's the fall that I look forward to. Let me freeze my nuts off from mid November through January. 

[SnowWillarrive]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

Another great CFS run for Janaury.

Nice but I only really care about December. Seems to be the best month for us with low Sun angle. Always delivers in this new climate regime. 

[RentonHill]

yes

[Slushy Inch]

5 minutes ago, RentonHill said:

yes

Extrapolating!