November 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[Meatyorologist]

34 minutes ago, MossMan said:

You win! 

He's definitely not going to buy it now, knowing that any one of us freaks could come knocking on his door after you posted the address!

[Meatyorologist]

Thinking of knocking on some doors. Right around when that sunriver guy moves, idk

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Rain has been coming down harder for the last several hours. Now up to 0.90".

[SpaceRace22]

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

[MossMan]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Thinking of knocking on some doors. Right around when that sunriver guy moves, idk

I fixed it! 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

3 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

 

A -5 is pretty good for here. Has it been better before?

[Rubus Leucodermis]

12 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

Let’s just say I wouldn’t complain if that verified.

[MossMan]

2 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Let’s just say I wouldn’t complain if that verified.

I definitely approve of whatever color that is! 

[Tenochtitlan]

17 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

I know I’m a weather weenie because I’m incredibly annoyed at the mere *thought* of Portland somewhat missing out on this imaginary event. I need help.

[Meatyorologist]

Happy November, roll your dice now! 

[Meatyorologist]

20 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

-2C in Medford is very respectable

[ShawniganLake]

5 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

My area had snow cover Feb 10th to April 3rd in 2019. I'll never see snow like that again here. 

Pretty remarkable to have snow cover through early April at that elevation.  
 

Its not super rare to have snow cover last 30-40 days here but it will often melt out in the sunny areas which our yard is, while a shady area might have a solid 4-6” left.  In 2008-9 we had snow in shady areas from mid December until mid March.  2016-17 was similar, with some areas holding onto snow cover from early December until mid March. 

[snow_wizard]

36 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

Colder than 1950 by a fair margin.  I think SEA had an average low of 19 that month which is insane enough.

[ShawniganLake]

39 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

What a waste of computing power the CFS is.  Hopefully they don’t spend much money on it. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sounds like the gutters are overflowing. 

[iFred]

2 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

I am a big fan of it, as is my cousin Vlad and my best friend Lestat.

Low sun angles make for an otherworldly day, even nearly half the year the sun is low enough to cast gilded hues on everything.

[iFred]

48 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

The only thing keeping that frame somewhat hanging on by a thread of reality is the axis of that temp anomaly is far west of the divide. Would love to see how the CFS handled evolution  and what is supporting it down stream.

[Jbolin]

36 minutes ago, MossMan said:

I definitely approve of whatever color that is! 

MossMan Mauve? 

[iFred]

11 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What a waste of computing power the CFS is.  Hopefully they don’t spend much money on it. 

Don’t worry bud, his ban starts at Midnight and soon he will no longer be able to offend you with his misuse of a long range NWP model designed more for trend analysis than seeing how many meters of snow Victoria will get.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

1 hour ago, MossMan said:

You win! 

Only 4 bedrooms but yet it's 4100 square feet? Must be giants living there!

[ShawniganLake]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry bud, his ban starts at Midnight and soon he will no longer be able to offend you with his misuse of a long range NWP model designed more for trend analysis than seeing how many meters of snow Victoria will get.

Thank you.  You’re a god amongst men.  

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

55 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

Not even that cold here. Throw it out

[SpaceRace22]

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

[Deweydog]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

December

[SilverFallsAndrew]

1 minute ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

Alright!

[SpaceRace22]

7 minutes ago, iFred said:

Don’t worry bud, his ban starts at Midnight and soon he will no longer be able to offend you with his misuse of a long range NWP model designed more for trend analysis than seeing how many meters of snow Victoria will get.

Cherry picking individual CFS runs and taking them at 100% face value down to the pixel is a better dopamine hit than anything you can get on 3rd avenue and you all know it

[SpaceRace22]

23 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

What a waste of computing power the CFS is.  Hopefully they don’t spend much money on it. 

y so srs

[Tenochtitlan]

6 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

Maybe if I offer the imaginary magenta blob some voodoo donuts I can entice it to visit Portland.

[Slushy Inch]

11 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

The non control was good as well. But I don’t take the cfs too seriously. Euro monthlies should come out soon.

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

10 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

Trend south.

[ShawniganLake]

16 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

 

[Snownerd3000]

21 minutes ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

[ShawniganLake]

Hopefully Fred has time to protect his young guava and papaya trees before the cold really settles in.  

[Front Ranger]

25 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

December

It will happen. 

[Slushy Inch]

[iFred]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Hopefully Fred has time to protect his young guava and papaya trees before the cold really settles in.  

I’m doubling down on my “No freeze No more” prediction with a new orangery. 

[iFred]

28 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

NDJF could be cold.

 

When was the last time we had a winter that was filled with events front to back? 1645? 40,000 BC?

[Meatyorologist]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

NDJF could be cold.

 

When was the last time we had a winter that was filled with events front to back? 1645? 40,000 BC?

2022-23 we were getting teased with marginal snow events on all the models from mid October through the end of April. Almost none of that materialized in the city but it was at least a partially exciting winter from start to finish...

[Jbolin]

27 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

2022-23 we were getting teased with marginal snow events on all the models from mid October through the end of April. Almost none of that materialized in the city but it was at least a partially exciting winter from start to finish...

I've had one night stands more exciting than that "winter"

[Meatyorologist]

Well sheeeeesh...