November 2024 PNW Weather Discussion

[DeepFriedEgg]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Well sheeeeesh...

The N/S gradient is going to break some hearts.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

The N/S gradient is going to break some hearts.

We're used to it down here. Gonna continue to get progressively worse and that will move north as the years go on.

[MossMan]

.13” so far on the day, 1.15” for the month.

43 degrees and not raining. 

[MossMan]

Need to get my Christmas lights up next week before winter arrives! 

Edited November 2 by MossMan

[Snowdome]

Timberline doing a soft opening this weekend! 

[SouthHillFrosty]

Well the models can only get worse

[MossMan]

Looking like winter this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

Average of the last 12 CFS runs for January.  It starts to become a bit more meaningful when the multi run average is good.  The models really like January this winter.  We'll see if we can finally get a good one!

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, SouthHillFrosty said:

Well the models can only get worse

Still room to get better IMO.

[SnowWillarrive]

11 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

This should be a permanent feature in winter. Just like the giant red spot on Jupiter.

[BLI snowman]

9 hours ago, iFred said:

NDJF could be cold.

 

When was the last time we had a winter that was filled with events front to back? 1645? 40,000 BC?

1955-56 famously had events throughout the entire winter. Only April was missing:

Major regional arctic air and snow in mid-November, 5-6 days below freezing between the 11th-17th with snow on both ends

Fraser River trickle-down in mid-December. Major snow and ice storm from PDX-north on the 18th, 10" at OLM and a high of 25 at BLI

Anafront in SW OR in early January with 8" at Roseburg on the 6th

Major snowstorm in NW OR and SW WA on January 26-27, widespread 6-12" from SLE to Longview

Extended backdoor arctic airmass moved in following this and produced multiple subfreezing days for NW OR and SW WA

Historic Fraser River blast in mid-February, high of 24 at SEA on the 15th. Again had some snow on both ends, with overrunning on the 17th

Extended lowland snows in early March, with the biggest event coming on the 5th with over 7" at Medford and 6" at Forest Grove

There were also lowland snowfalls in early December and some in late February. Also a major jet extension after the mid-December event, which led to the historic flooding in NorCal and produced a decent 60+mph windstorm on December 22nd in the lowlands.

Edited November 2 by BLI snowman

[seattleweatherguy]

12 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

I’d love this 

[snow_wizard]

40 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

1955-56 famously had events throughout the entire winter. Only April was missing:

Major regional arctic air and snow in mid-November, 5-6 days below freezing between the 11th-17th with snow on both ends

Fraser River trickle-down in mid-December. Major snow and ice storm from PDX-north on the 18th, 10" at OLM and a high of 25 at BLI

Anafront in SW OR in early January with 8" at Roseburg on the 6th

Major snowstorm in NW OR and SW WA on January 26-27, widespread 6-12" from SLE to Longview

Extended backdoor arctic airmass moved in following this and produced multiple subfreezing days for NW OR and SW WA

Historic Fraser River blast in mid-February, high of 24 at SEA on the 15th. Again had some snow on both ends, with overrunning on the 17th

Extended lowland snows in early March, with the biggest event coming on the 5th with over 7" at Medford and 6" at Forest Grove

There were also lowland snowfalls in early December and some in late February. Also a major jet extension after the mid-December event, which led to the historic flooding in NorCal and produced a decent 60+mph windstorm on December 22nd in the lowlands.

I think a lot of places in the Puget Sound area had around a foot in Feb 1956.  Fantastic event.  That was an incredibly well rounded winter for sure.

[snow_wizard]

12 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

What a waste of computing power the CFS is.  Hopefully they don’t spend much money on it. 

It's not supposed to be used on a run by run basis.  You need to take the average of many runs for it to mean much.

[snow_wizard]

12 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

This might be the single most outrageous and implausible frame of any model run I have ever seen in my entire life.

At face value this extreme of an anomaly would be an average high of 18F at SEA for the entire month of January.

I find it interesting we are repeatedly seeing the cold air spread out across the northern tier on most models.  Way better for snow in Seattle than winters where the entire West is buried in cold air.  Even the official CPC winter outlook and Joe Bastardi have that look for this winter.  Obviously the intensity is absurd on this map though.

The reason we want that configuration in the Seattle area is this favors northerly surface winds whereas the cold West scenario suggests a lot of east wind which kills moisture in the Puget Sound region.

[StormchaserChuck1]

If the PNW has that much of a cold signal, I expect the East coast to be very above average.  There has been a lot of mid-latitude warmth this year. 

[the_convergence_zone]

Just a tad snowy at the top of Mt Si this morning. 

[snow_wizard]

4 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

If the PNW has that much of a cold signal, I expect the East coast to be very above average.  There has been a lot of mid-latitude warmth this year. 

Yeah.  This could be ugly for the East.  I think the only way this winter will flop here is if we don't have enough amplification.  Even in that case the configuration would still favor a warm east.

[Groundhog]

Elevation 5,318ft at this webcam. The Okanagan Connector routinely goes from autumn to powdery, blowing snow. The transition of slushy, snotty snow is short-lived. 

[Slushy Inch]

Best euro run so far

[Omegaraptor]

56 minutes ago, snow_wizard said:

I find it interesting we are repeatedly seeing the cold air spread out across the northern tier on most models.  Way better for snow in Seattle than winters where the entire West is buried in cold air.  Even the official CPC winter outlook and Joe Bastardi have that look for this winter.  Obviously the intensity is absurd on this map though.

The reason we want that configuration in the Seattle area is this favors northerly surface winds whereas the cold West scenario suggests a lot of east wind which kills moisture in the Puget Sound region.

No thanks. I'd rather have a dry blast than yet another ice storm.

[snow_wizard]

5 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

No thanks. I'd rather have a dry blast than yet another ice storm.

I get that.  I'm not saying the N to S pattern wouldn't be good for OR too BTW.

[iFred]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

If the PNW has that much of a cold signal, I expect the East coast to be very above average.  There has been a lot of mid-latitude warmth this year. 

Quite a few forecasters are pointing out how that this is more of a model problem and that something resembling your forecast is more likely. 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, snow_wizard said:

I find it interesting we are repeatedly seeing the cold air spread out across the northern tier on most models.  Way better for snow in Seattle than winters where the entire West is buried in cold air.  Even the official CPC winter outlook and Joe Bastardi have that look for this winter.  Obviously the intensity is absurd on this map though.

The reason we want that configuration in the Seattle area is this favors northerly surface winds whereas the cold West scenario suggests a lot of east wind which kills moisture in the Puget Sound region.

Just fantasizing about Sound Effect snow streaming over Everett as strong and cold northwesterly winds compounded by a convergence zone setup end up dumping Buffalo amounts between Edmonds and Marysville.

[Slushy Inch]

500mb looks good on eps and operational but unfortunately no Arctic air to work with currently. At least there is some in NW Canada by the end of the geps

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Euro shows some lowland flakes

[Slushy Inch]

3 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

Average of the last 12 CFS runs for January.  It starts to become a bit more meaningful when the multi run average is good.  The models really like January this winter.  We'll see if we can finally get a good one!

January might be the real deal maybe a teaser in Dec. or late Nov.

[ShawniganLake]

8 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

500mb looks good on eps and operational but unfortunately no Arctic to work with currently.

Yes. Things are just looking much too progressive for now. 

[Slushy Inch]

7 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yes. Things are just looking much too progressive for now. 

Great for mountain snow and building snowpack in western Canada which should help future Arctic highs.

[FroYoBro]

5 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Great for mountain snow and building snowpack in western Canada which should help future Arctic highs.

Yeah, I just like to see mountain snow in November with plenty of rain down here and maybe some windstorms. Let the real show start in December!

[ShawniganLake]

Usually the NMME is just solid warmth. 
 

 

[Slushy Inch]

Another euro weekly with Goa ridge present for the entire run. Never a bad thing to say the least.

[Kolk1604]

1 hour ago, Slushy Inch said:

500mb looks good on eps and operational but unfortunately no Arctic air to work with currently. At least there is some in NW Canada by the end of the geps

The 12z GEM looked okay too at the end. 

[Slushy Inch]

3 minutes ago, Kolk1604 said:

The 12z GEM looked okay too at the end. 

Looks like that’s an old run.

[Kolk1604]

27 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looks like that’s an old run.

Edit: The 00z looked okay lol 

whoops 

[Snownerd3000]

4 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

1955-56 famously had events throughout the entire winter. Only April was missing:

Major regional arctic air and snow in mid-November, 5-6 days below freezing between the 11th-17th with snow on both ends

Fraser River trickle-down in mid-December. Major snow and ice storm from PDX-north on the 18th, 10" at OLM and a high of 25 at BLI

Anafront in SW OR in early January with 8" at Roseburg on the 6th

Major snowstorm in NW OR and SW WA on January 26-27, widespread 6-12" from SLE to Longview

Extended backdoor arctic airmass moved in following this and produced multiple subfreezing days for NW OR and SW WA

Historic Fraser River blast in mid-February, high of 24 at SEA on the 15th. Again had some snow on both ends, with overrunning on the 17th

Extended lowland snows in early March, with the biggest event coming on the 5th with over 7" at Medford and 6" at Forest Grove

There were also lowland snowfalls in early December and some in late February. Also a major jet extension after the mid-December event, which led to the historic flooding in NorCal and produced a decent 60+mph windstorm on December 22nd in the lowlands.

Analog for this year?

[Phishy Wx]

16 hours ago, iFred said:

The only thing keeping that frame somewhat hanging on by a thread of reality is the axis of that temp anomaly is far west of the divide. Would love to see how the CFS handled evolution  and what is supporting it down stream.

nothing

[Phishy Wx]

15 hours ago, SpaceRace22 said:

Speaking of implausible model runs....what the ****?

JBFC

[TigerWoodsLibido]

51F with some light to moderate rain. 0.16” on the day so far.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, ShawniganLake said:

Usually the NMME is just solid warmth. 
 

 

that's also 3 weeks old