DJF Forecast Contest

[Meatyorologist]

Pretty simple.

Dec Temp Anom/Precip Anom

Jan Temp Anom/Precip Anom

Feb Temp Anom/Precip Anom

Include more months such as Nov or Mar or add details for the spirit of things. Tell us what you feel

Winner gets bragging rights and/or an ipad

[Meatyorologist]

Cutoff is 10pm November 13th, or when frame 384hr on the GFS reads "00z December 01"

[snow_wizard]

What city or cities?

[Sunriver Snow Zone]

I'll just forecast for bend because they keep more consistent and accurate records than I or sunriver resort does. -4F +.4" in December, -11F +.8" in January, and I don't care about February.

[Doinko]

No basis for this but I'll try:

SEA:
Dec: -1.2, +1.00"
Jan: -3.3, -0.50"
Feb: +0.3, +0.75"


PDX:
Dec: -0.3, +1.50"
Jan: -3.5, +0.00"
Feb: +0.1, +0.25"

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, snow_wizard said:

What city or cities?

I guess your home town or anywhere you'd like

[snow_wizard]

OK...I'm going pretty wild for this winter.  Been a long time since I've felt confident enough to put numbers like this on the record.  I'm going to do both SEA and PDX.  Keep in mind that the big minus departures I'm forecasting for January are compounded by the insanely warm normal we currently have for January.  As an aside I think the January normal will actually come down over the next decade simply from a likely regime shift which will probably shift us to warmer Februarys and colder Januarys.  

My thinking is January is the most likely month to be colder than normal closely followed by December.  February is probably the least likely month.  I realize I'm going out on a limb with recent trends being what they've been, but this just feels like the year January will flip.  I think we saw the first gasp of that with the big January cold wave last winter.

I think a pretty strong N to S gradient is likely this winter, but I am by no means ruling out a winter where Portland could be more anomalously cold than Seattle.  I'm going for Seattle being more anomalously cold, but am hedging it somewhat.  Anyway....here goes nothing.  The snow forecast for January is just for fun.

EDIT:  I am more confident of Dec and Jan averaging out to the numbers shown collectively than I am of which month will be the coldest.

SEA:

Dec: -3 / 0.0"

Jan: -6 / -2.0"  Snow: 12" to 20"

Feb: -1 / +2.0"

 

PDX:

Dec: -2 / 0.0"

Jan: -5 / -1.0"  Snow 10" to 15"

Feb: 0 / +3.0"

[iFred]

Dec: +0.5f / +0.5”

Jan: +1.0f / +0.0”

Feb -0.5f / -0.5”

No regional cold or snow events that hit YVR-SEA-PDX but some back door cold for PDX in Feb/Mar

[snow_wizard]

22 minutes ago, iFred said:

Dec: +0.5f / +0.5”

Jan: +1.0f / +0.0”

Feb -0.5f / -0.5”

No regional cold or snow events that hit YVR-SEA-PDX but some back door cold for PDX in Feb/Mar

B-O-R-I-N-G

[ShawniganLake]

SEA:

Dec: -5 / +1”

Jan: -2 / 0”               Snow: 8-12”

Feb: +2 / -2”

 

PDX:

Dec: -3 / +2”

Jan: -1 / 0”          Snow 5-9”

Feb: +2 /  -1”