December 2024 Observations and Discussion

westMJim · November 27

With December and meteorological winter starting on Sunday it has been mentioned that we should start a new post for this so here it is.

December and Meteorological Winter

You may hate it or love it but either way we are about to enter meteorological winter. Of course, the months of December, January and February on average are the coldest months of the year here in west Michigan. In most winters they are the months with the most snow fall. Records have been kept here at Grand Rapids since 1892 in the years 1892 to 1895 there is some missing data. The location from where records are taken from appears to have moved 3 times. For a location somewhere downtown to the old airport between 36^th and 44^th streets near Kalamazoo ave. That airport opened in 1927 but not sure when the weather station moved there. And since November 23^rd, 1963 the official NWS office moved to its current location. At Lansing the records there go all the way back to April 1863. The Lansing airport has been at its current location since 1928 I am not sure where the weather station was located before being at the airport.

Meteorological Winter

The current 30 average temperature at Grand Rapids for the months of December, January and February is 27.3. That is up from the old 30 year average of 26.8 (The new 15 year average is 27.4) The warmest meteorological winter at Grand Rapids is 33.9 set in 1931/32 The coldest is 18.2 set in 1903/04 The average snow fall at Grand Rapids for December to February is 60.6” The snowiest meteorological winter was the 105.6” that fell in the 3 months in 2013/14 the total that season was 116.0. The least snow fall for any meteorological winter came in 1982/83 when just 11.8”fell. the total for that season was just 35.9” At Lansing the 30 year average mean temperature for meteorological winter is 26.4. The meteorological winter snow fall there is 35.5” and for the winter season the average snow fall is 50.2” Last year the meteorological winter mean temperature at Grand Rapids was a very mild 33.6° that is the 2^nd warmest winter of record at Grand Rapids and a departure of +6.3. At Lansing the meteorological winter mean last year was 33.3. As for snowfall, the total for the season last winter was just 47.5” at Grand Rapids a departure of -30.3” during the meteorological winter last winter was 38.4” with most of that falling in a two-week period. At Lansing the seasonal snow fall is not complete as January total is not available. For the winter season the snowfall records at Grand Rapids are 132.0 in 1951/52 for the most and 20.0” in 1905/06 for the least. At Lansing it is 97.2 in 1880/81 for the most and 16.0” in 1863/64 for the least.

December

The current 30 year mean temperature at Grand Rapids for December is 30.4. The warmest day in December is 69 and that was on December 5, 2001 The coldest low in December is -18 and that was on December 5, 1983. The warmest mean temperature for any December is 39.1° in 2015 the coldest mean for any December is 17.1 in 1989. The average December snow fall at Grand Rapids is 20.8” the most snow to fall in any December is 59.2” in 2000 the least snow fall is 1” that fell in 2014 Last year just 1.3” of of snow fell in December that is the 2^nd least amount. At Lansing the 30 year average temperature is 29.5 and the average snow fall amount is 11.3. The warmest mean was 39.0 in 2015 and the coldest was 13.9 in 1876. The most snow fall was in 2000 with 33.5” and the least snowfall was in 1889 when no snow fall was reported. The record high of 70 was set on December 31 1875 that was in the middle of a 4 day “heat wave” that saw highs of 60,70,65 and 62. The record low for December at Lansing is -25 on December 18, 1884.

Hoosier · November 27

Mentioned this in the other thread but the CFS is just ridiculously dry for December. Has almost the entire CONUS drier than average with just a couple tiny pockets wetter than average. We'll see what the runs in the next few days look like. But imo, it will be a little tough to end up this dry from coast to coast. Chances are somebody will end up wetter than average, even if it's a relatively small area.

The temperature progs are on the right track with the overall layout imo, with the warmer risks the farther west you go into the Plains and westward.

Clinton · November 27

41 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Mentioned this in the other thread but the CFS is just ridiculously dry for December. Has almost the entire CONUS drier than average with just a couple tiny pockets wetter than average. We'll see what the runs in the next few days look like. But imo, it will be a little tough to end up this dry from coast to coast. Chances are somebody will end up wetter than average, even if it's a relatively small area.

The temperature progs are on the right track with the overall layout imo, with the warmer risks the farther west you go into the Plains and westward.

Looks alot like October. Things should get wetter in 3 weeks. We'll have a couple of systems between now and Christmas.

Hoosier · November 27

13 minutes ago, Clinton said:

Looks alot like October. Things should get wetter in 3 weeks. We'll have a couple of systems between now and Christmas.

Yeah, October was extremely dry on the whole. Looking back on that and comparing to the CFS progs, the CFS had the right idea with the overall flavor but there were some wet areas that it missed.

Andie · November 27

Someone tell me it will rain in North Texas.
Lie to me, if you must!
It’s really bad.

jaster220 · November 28

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah, October was extremely dry on the whole. Looking back on that and comparing to the CFS progs, the CFS had the right idea with the overall flavor but there were some wet areas that it missed.

Well, I mentioned NOT having a Dec 2000. This would almost be the opposite. Dec 2000 was almost too much winter at the busiest time of year. I had 10 month old twins then which prolly made it even crazier for me personally. Looking very lopsided this winter wrt any wet periods.

hawkstwelve · November 28

4 hours ago, Andie said:

Someone tell me it will rain in North Texas.
Lie to me, if you must!
It’s really bad.

Probability of less than 0.10 of rain over the next 10 days. Ain't looking the best.

jaster220 · November 28

On 11/27/2024 at 3:05 PM, Clinton said:

Looks alot like October. Things should get wetter in 3 weeks. We'll have a couple of systems between now and Christmas.

Thx. did you get your dusting you were expecting yesterday?

Clinton · November 28

20 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thx. did you get your dusting you were expecting yesterday?

No it's Saturday that there's a chance. Hopefully I see some flakes.

Clinton · November 29

25 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I still think we will have some potential for another cold system around Dec 10th. It may end up not being cold enough or too far east, but there is a chance for something wintry with this pattern.

I moved this over to the December thread. This is on my LRC calendar as on October 15th a storm with no moisture to work with moved through southern Canada. It dropped a strong front through the region giving my area our first freeze of the season. Hopefully there's some moisture to work with this time and it doesn't get shoved off to the east.

Black Hole · November 29

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

I moved this over to the December thread. This is on my LRC calendar as on October 15th a storm with no moisture to work with moved through southern Canada. It dropped a strong front through the region giving my area our first freeze of the season. Hopefully there's some moisture to work with this time and it doesn't get shoved off to the east.

That's fine, I guess I wasn't paying attention to where I put it! It does look to be close, so lets hope the small scale works out in our favor.

Black Hole · November 29

Eric webb on X or Twitter seems to think this is going to be very similar to 2013/14 this winter. That was a very cold and occasionally snowy winter here so I'd take it.

Tulsa averages maybe 7-8 highs of 32F or less per year, there were 23 that year which is 4th most all-time. We had 12.5" of snow officially.

Tom · November 29

8 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Eric webb on X or Twitter seems to think this is going to be very similar to 2013/14 this winter. That was a very cold and occasionally snowy winter here so I'd take it.

Tulsa averages maybe 7-8 highs of 32F or less per year, there were 23 that year which is 4th most all-time. We had 12.5" of snow officially.

TBH, he is one of the most non biased guys out there and has done pretty good with his LR forecasts over the last few winters. I'm also pretty thrilled to hear that BAMWx is onboard for a good winter overall.

Clinton · November 29

Can we avoid a phase 6 MJO? Models have trended towards the MJO stalling out in phase 5 ( which is cold in a la nina) then moving into the null phase. The stormy part of the pattern will return around Christmas so avoiding phase 6 is important unless you like brown.

Phase 5 MJO

image.jpeg.2a16d12bdd690fb7e8b70b60464f63b0.jpeg

image.png.98d74d1868ff0d51ee68b62b308d0e19.png

image.png.69c1116428b4e747010eec42efa71f46.png

Tom · November 29

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Can we avoid a phase 6 MJO? Models have trended towards the MJO stalling out in phase 5 ( which is cold in a la nina) then moving into the null phase. The stormy part of the pattern will return around Christmas so avoiding phase 6 is important unless you like brown.

Phase 5 MJO

I'm really starting to get a bit pumped for the period 12/8 - 12/12 for a large area of the Upper MW down into the S MW/OHV. This looks like a really interesting scenario where you have Arctic Air bottled up and a powerful storm coming out of the PAC and tracking into the Rockies that eventually develops in the central CONUS. The timing of the Cut off Trough in Southwest is also going to play a role in this. This may end up being a multi-day system that sends and initial wave (s) of snow along the arctic frontal boundary across the Upper MW/GL's and then the main show develops farther SW in the Plains and cuts up the OHV. I got my attn perked up on this particular period for a few personal reasons.

Clinton · November 29

6 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm really starting to get a bit pumped for the period 12/8 - 12/12 for a large area of the Upper MW down into the S MW/OHV. This looks like a really interesting scenario where you have Arctic Air bottled up and a powerful storm coming out of the PAC and tracking into the Rockies that eventually develops in the central CONUS. The timing of the Cut off Trough in Southwest is also going to play a role in this. This may end up being a multi-day system that sends and initial wave (s) of snow along the arctic frontal boundary across the Upper MW/GL's and then the main show develops farther SW in the Plains and cuts up the OHV. I got my attn perked up on this particular period for a few personal reasons.

If memory serves me right that cutoff low went right over the top of you in cycle 1.

Tom · November 29

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

If memory serves me right that cutoff low went right over the top of you in cycle 1.

Yup! Gotta see how it tracks this time bc it may be farther south and may bode well to pump more PAC moisture into the pattern.

jaster220 · November 29

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Yup! Gotta see how it tracks this time bc it may be farther south and may bode well to pump more PAC moisture into the pattern.

Outside of LES blasts, this could be Ohio's winter the way it's starting out of the gate

james1976 · November 29

How's the clipper train looking on the Euro?

Clinton · November 29

47 minutes ago, james1976 said:

How's the clipper train looking on the Euro?

Has 1 about every 3 or 4 days.

james1976 · November 29

MPX is keeping a "close eye" on the Tue-Wed clipper. If we receive snowfall it would likely stick around with highs in the 20s afterward.

jaster220 · November 29

4 hours ago, Clinton said:

Has 1 about every 3 or 4 days.

Appreciate you @Clinton for posting that, especially with it not sharing the wealth down your way.

jaster220 · November 29

For you record event hounds..

(they also mentioned the 80-100 inches in Little Traverse Bay region during the epic Dec 2001 LES outbreak)

APX-

If current forecast amounts materialize, the Gaylord area will break
their all-time daily snowfall of 17.0" set back on March 9, 1942 --
and may even smash that record by multiple inches by midnight if
latest snowfall rates hold. The all-time daily record for Sault
Ste. Marie appears to be much harder to top -- an astonishing 26.6"
set back during the infamous lake effect event in December 1995
(12/10/1995).

jaster220 · November 30

NAM 12k showing a pretty intense LES band with possible Superior connection swinging thru here Sunday evening as winds shift around more Northerly. It's a ways out but something to track.

Minny_Weather · November 30

Euro and GFS have basically flipped their scripts here. Euro was the more clipper-heavy model here a couple days ago, and now GFS is.

Good thing is that models are pretty consistent with northern areas getting a snowpack built up, which helps a lot. Especially with temps looking to get warmer in a couple weeks.

Stacsh · November 30

The clipper Wednesday is a perfect SW flow lake enhanced set up for my backyard.

jaster220 · November 30

3 hours ago, Stacsh said:

The clipper Wednesday is a perfect SW flow lake enhanced set up for my backyard.

Was thinking that. You should do well. A lot depends on how the moisture can find it's way here or not. Can't count on lake boosting so far inland. I'm going to need the synoptic "wing" to line-up just right tbh.

Stacsh · November 30

30 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Was thinking that. You should do well. A lot depends on how the moisture can find it's way here or not. Can't count on lake boosting so far inland. I'm going to need the synoptic "wing" to line-up just right tbh.

Still a ways out but for now it looks like some decent moisture up your way.

Tom · November 30

CPC with their latest DEC outlook...I think its a pretty good guess for the pattern next month...

Tom · November 30

18z GFS sniffing out the system @Clinton and others are talking about on here...I think something is definitely brewing up. Hope to see more models see a bigger system as such.

Stacsh · November 30

Hail to the Victors!!!

james1976 · November 30

28 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z GFS sniffing out the system @Clinton and others are talking about on here...I think something is definitely brewing up. Hope to see more models see a bigger system as such.

Yeah it keeps showing up on models. Something brewing for sure. I'm hoping to score a little from a clipper or 2 before this.

jaster220 · December 1

45 minutes ago, Tom said:

18z GFS sniffing out the system @Clinton and others are talking about on here...I think something is definitely brewing up. Hope to see more models see a bigger system as such.

Haha my friend. Every time somebody posts a map, I get more SNOW! Keep it coming.

GRR with some pretty strong wording about the clipper from this range. Also hitting on the Superior connected bands of Sun night Monday. Going to be hard to keep up with this, lol.

After the cold front swings through later in the day,
850mb temperatures are shown to drop to around -15C and lake
effect snow bands in a WNW to then NW flow will develop, with
several inches probable. ENS mean 6-hour max wind gusts across
our lakeshore communities reach 40 to 50 mph by Thursday morning.
If this materializes, significant travel disruptions may occur up
and down the lakeshore Thursday with snow and blowing snow, and
bands may be blown well inland leading to some impacts further
east than normal as well. Trends will be closely monitored with
this potentially impactful system.

jaster220 · December 1

As I noted on the SR models yesterday, this next round of LES vector is more favorable for Harrison. Doesn't guarantee anything ofc, but it's a direction that I have seen deliver last December. I'm the pink dot a bit west of Gladwin. Within the circle of "locally higher amt's possible". I doubt I will get a snow forecast map from GRR so running with this for now.

2024-11-30APXForecastSNmap.png.75c3eb3859ff5e8d43c5507f34c7a1e8.png

Naptownwx · December 1

2 hours ago, Tom said:

18z GFS sniffing out the system @Clinton and others are talking about on here...I think something is definitely brewing up. Hope to see more models see a bigger system as such.

Really watching this one!

james1976 · December 1

3 hours ago, Naptownwx said:

Really watching this one!

0z doesn't have the phasing til it's in the OH valley

Tom · December 1

Hello Decembrrrrr!!! Many of you are freezing your tush's off as we officially open up Met Winter. Coincidentally, in our Era of living through Extreme's, I read this blog on WGN this morning which explains NOAA reasoning behind some of the change with regards to cold weather hazards. I think its a good move to add some of the new Extreme Cold hazards with or without wind.

https://wgntv.com/weather/staying-safe-the-dangers-of-extreme-cold/

Tom · December 1

What a big flip in the CANSips for DEC...

westMJim · December 1

Welcome to December and the start of meteorological winter. Here is a quick summary of November 2024 weather at Grand Rapids. The mean temperature was 44.0 that is a departure of +4.0 it was the 11 warmest November of record at Grand Rapids. The high for the month was 68 on the 5th and the low was 23 on the 30th there was 3.46” of precipitation a departure of +0.36” and 11.3” of snowfall a departure of +4.2. A new record daily record snow fall of 9.2” fell on the 29th

The official H/L yesterday at GR was 26/23 there was 0.09” of precipitation 1.5” of snow. There was 3” of snow on the ground. There was no sunshine. For today the average H/L is 41/28 the record high of 65 was in 1970 the coldest high of 17 was in 1896. The record low of 6 was in 1976 the warmest low of 53 was in 1913. The wettest was 0.86” in 2006 the most snowfall of 5.0” was in 2010 the most on the ground was 10” in 1940.

Clinton · December 1

I have freezing fog this morning with a temperature of 21. Great way to welcome in meteorological Winter.

December 2024 Observations and Discussion

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