It's Gonna Be May 2025 Pacific Northwest Weather

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

6 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty much a certainty now that we're going to have significant water/drought/fire/heat issues this summer. Not the spring you wanted to see if you were hoping to avoid that.

I feel like that weather is typical over there. I might have a slight heat issue, but probably nothing much.

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

22 hours ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Portland may be warmer than Phoenix tomorrow.

wait til summer, then you may be wrong.

[FroYoBro]

Just now, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

wait til summer, then you may be wrong.

Big if true.

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

wait til summer, then you may be wrong.

That's a long way off since we don't even have spring yet in California. 

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

Just now, Anti Marine Layer said:

That's a long way off since we don't even have spring yet in California. 

you're gonna almost literally be burning up this summer because of the wildfires due to global warming/climate change.

[T-Town]

A chilly 42 degrees here this morning. Got the sprinkler going for the first time this year because my lawn is already turning brown. 

[MossMan]

Got down to 37 here. Brrrr. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

you're gonna almost literally be burning up this summer because of the wildfires due to global warming/climate change.

Yes... wildfires never used to happen.   New phenomenon.    

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

Yes... wildfires never used to happen.   New phenomenon.    

i'm saying u (Washington State, California, Oregon) have wildfires more than the rest of the regions, so you should be used to wildfires by now.

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

wait til summer, then you may be wrong.

In summer he will be wrong about Portland being warmer tomorrow on May 6th?   So this summer will change what happens in the past?   Makes perfect sense.   

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

i'm saying u (Washington State, California, Oregon) have wildfires more than the rest of the regions, so you should be used to wildfires by now.

That is not what you said.   You are just rambling incoherently. 

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

That is not what you said.   You are just rambling incoherently. 

you're right. I didn't realize what I posted until you pointed that out. Thanks for catching me there.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

21 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Beautiful day for yardwork.   Also had a few showers this morning.

A creek under this bridge? 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

14 hours ago, MossMan said:

Spent the day playing with sunken rocks! Over time the border rocks the original owners had around the pathways had sunken to the point where only the tips were showing if at all, so it was dig them up and reinstall time. Made the path wider as well for the tractor. Now I just need a fresh batch of gravel! 
 

My back is officially tired. 

Looks great!

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

A creek under this bridge? 

No... a decorative dry creek bed.

[Phishy Wx]

was 35 this morning.  Frost on the roof

[BLI snowman]

12z GFS was an improvement at least. And gets the hurricane season going!

[Eastwind]

7 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

Pretty much a certainty now that we're going to have significant water/drought/fire/heat issues this summer. Not the spring you wanted to see if you were hoping to avoid that.

 

7 hours ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

I feel like that weather is typical over there. I might have a slight heat issue, but probably nothing much.

Rod just came out with his summer outlook a few days ago and he’s bullish on a hot summer. He has July as the hottest month. FWIW the record for 90+ days at PDX is 31 set back in 2018.  

 

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

22 minutes ago, Sunny said:

 

Rod just came out with his summer outlook a few days ago and he’s bullish on a hot summer. He has July as the hottest month. FWIW the record for 90+ days at PDX is 31 set back in 2018.  

 

ok, for portland, i'm wrong. that's atypical. California and the majority of the southwest should be normal with those temps.

[Tyler Mode]

1 hour ago, Sunny said:

 

Rod just came out with his summer outlook a few days ago and he’s bullish on a hot summer. He has July as the hottest month. FWIW the record for 90+ days at PDX is 31 set back in 2018.  

 

Saying 22-31 90 degree days is basically saying from above average to near record.

Saying 1-5 days above 100 is saying from average, to well above average. 

It's the same as saying 2-10" of snow in the winter.  Too generic.

[Cold Snap]

Starting to look like the 10th-15th period could be chilly and wet. I won’t be here for it but it will still be nice to get some much needed rain here.

[TT-SEA]

72 degrees... spectacular early May day.

[Front Ranger]

20 minutes ago, Cold Snap said:

Starting to look like the 10th-15th period could be chilly and wet. I won’t be here for it but it will still be nice to get some much needed rain here.

Indeed. Euro moved that direction as well.

[Tyler Mode]

Nice trends for Portland on the latest Euro.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Indeed. Euro moved that direction as well.

Hopefully not just chasing a carrot like we have been for the last month. 

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

Hopefully not just chasing a carrot like we have been for the last month. 

Its not even a wetter than normal carrot on the ECMWF.

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not even a wetter than normal carrot on the ECMWF.

 

We’ve just gotta get something at this point. An inch of rain across the region would be awesome. 

[fubario]

Tim down here in Oly this past weekend casting his 9th level "Virga Spell" lol

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

We’ve just gotta get something at this point. An inch of rain across the region would be awesome. 

Big time.

[Meatyorologist]

I predict May will finish right around normal temperature wise, and a little wetter than normal.

I'll wager thunderstorm potential increases after mid month, since globals have been consistent we will get more "bites at the apple" if you will, as troughs keep diving out of the GOA and splitting to varying degrees. May won't roar March style but I don't think it will be entirely boring, either.

[Anti Marine Layer]

[Omegaraptor]

28 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

We’ve just gotta get something at this point. An inch of rain across the region would be awesome. 

Just finished up my first day at my new job in Wilsonville and on the way back I noticed a lot of grass turning brown for this early in the season.

Have a feeling this is just gonna collapse into another 0.05-0.10" dud, but we'll see.

[Apr0t0genlovWeat23r]

14 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

Just finished up my first day at my new job in Wilsonville and on the way back I noticed a lot of grass turning brown for this early in the season.

Have a feeling this is just gonna collapse into another 0.05-0.10" dud, but we'll see.

i'm starting my summer job youth program soon.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Its not even a wetter than normal carrot on the ECMWF.

 

We were discussing the days 5-10 period.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

I predict May will finish right around normal temperature wise, and a little wetter than normal.

I'll wager thunderstorm potential increases after mid month, since globals have been consistent we will get more "bites at the apple" if you will, as troughs keep diving out of the GOA and splitting to varying degrees. May won't roar March style but I don't think it will be entirely boring, either.

Speaking of which, FINALLY had my first legit thunderstorm of the season today. I feel like a missing part of my soul has been restored.

[Meatyorologist]

21 minutes ago, Phil said:

Speaking of which, FINALLY had my first legit thunderstorm of the season today. I feel like a missing part of my soul has been restored.

We need a weather geek relief fund for the west coast. A once yearly 2k stipend for anyone here into extreme weather to go out and seek it

[Meatyorologist]

1 hour ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

[Meatyorologist]

2 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Pretty weird detail over ID as a local 500mb vortmax/trof dives south, merging with the dominant cutoff over AZ. Right now this feature is causing NE'ly mountain gap outflow into the treasure valley and convergence related shower/tstm activity east of Boise. Not a usual progression for a disturbance in the intermountain west. This feature will deepen as it progresses south-southwest into NV.

[Phil]

The EPS monthlies shifted significantly for June. In the same general direction that all seasonal model guidance and LR outlooks from the CPC have shifted since the final warming in late Feb (more ridging and dryness over central/eastern North America relative to the West).

Feels like this is going to be the theme for the warm season this year. Would love to be wrong, but the low frequency wave-2 signature in tropical forcing is something seasonal models will almost always fail to catch, and the absence of a coherent ENSO signal (or some other destructively interfering low frequency mode) doesn’t offer any clues as to if/when that will change.