June in the Parched PNW - 2025 Edition

[Meatyorologist]

Get your water tables checked and preferences properly audited. This is the annual dry period Koppen was frothing over while plotting his findings.

[Phil]

Posted in the May thread. The EPS has been trending westward with the ridge in the medium-long range, which I suspect will continue.

[Phil]

Re: CME impact timing. It’s possible this early storming isn’t from the main CME in question:

 

[Phil]

Wait, I can see a faint red aurora to the north already. Did not expect this tonight.

[Tyler Mode]

Aurora from Battle Ground, barely a glow to the naked eye.

 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

[iFred]

Clouds are working against me. Hoping this sticks around for tomorrow.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Faint yellow glow to the north from Springfield, OR.

Could be another May 2024 status event.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

6 minutes ago, iFred said:

Clouds are working against me. Hoping this sticks around for tomorrow.

Got a little more than an hour left. I’m not sold on Sunday anymore.

[iFred]

14 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

Got a little more than an hour left. I’m not sold on Sunday anymore.

Probably all she wrote then. Well I caught a hint of a glow, so not a total bust for me, just a 99% one.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

25 minutes ago, iFred said:

Probably all she wrote then. Well I caught a hint of a glow, so not a total bust for me, just a 99% one.

The data is showing another burst before 3 am. It’s possible things hang on till Sunday night. I’ll keep you updated

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Down to 38

[TT-SEA]

Smoke is all the way to Phil this morning.   It actually wasn't too bad here in MN yesterday but looks like its going to be worse today.

[Blizzard777]

Nest cam shot Federal Way 

i was asleep :( 

[DeepFriedEgg]

Historic trough at the end of the 6z GFS. Next weekend's ridge is gone. Keep complaining guys, it's working!

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Smoke is all the way to Phil this morning.   It actually wasn't too bad here in MN yesterday but looks like its going to be worse today.

All elevated thankfully, warm advection keeping mixing at-bay.

Only downside of warm season troughing these days is the Canadian smoke. I don’t remember this being an issue in years past.

[Blizzard777]

Timelapse from the nest camera. Not great but gives you and idea of what it was like. 
North sky 

 

[Groundhog]

1 hour ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Historic trough at the end of the 6z GFS. Next weekend's ridge is gone. Keep complaining guys, it's working!

Ensemble says the 06z operational is an outlier. Remains fairly dry. The 06z ensemble was slightly drier than the 00z ensemble. The 00z op was dry, 06z op was much wetter. I’m not putting any stock into one GFS op. 

[Phil]

Another overlap with 2008. 5/30 was the 6th most active day on record for tornado warnings by LWX. Right above it was June 4th 2008 (derecho/QLCS associated, but 5/30-31 was a convectively-augmented meso-low of sorts as well, so some similarities there as well).

 

[Phil]

Hello, 2008.

[BLI snowman]

28 minutes ago, Groundhog said:

Ensemble says the 06z operational is an outlier. Remains fairly dry. The 06z ensemble was slightly drier than the 00z ensemble. The 00z op was dry, 06z op was much wetter. I’m not putting any stock into one GFS op. 

We'll be damned lucky to get any measurable precipitation this month. Fully expecting departures in the +3 to +4 range as well.

[GobBluth]

Late spring this year feels like a throwback to when morning marine clouds were a thing. 

[TT-SEA]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Hello, 2008.

The first 2/3rds of June in 2008 were absolutely terrible in Seattle.    Including 10 days with highs in the 50s.   Beyond depressing for the longest days of the year by most people's standards... obviously not for a few people on here though.    Thankfully it doesn't look anything like this for the next couple of weeks.

[Phil]

This DOKW doesn’t have enough juice or atmospheric support for a warm season base state transition to +ENSO.

[Phil]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

The first 2/3rds of June in 2008 were absolutely terrible in Seattle.    Including 10 days with highs in the 50s.   Beyond depressing for the longest days of the year by most people's standards... obviously not for a few people on here though.    Thankfully it doesn't look anything like this for the next couple of weeks.

Timing offset in intraseasonal forcing/MJO.

I’d watch mid-June for a similar cool/troughy pattern this year (though perhaps not quite to that magnitude).

[weatherfan2012]

9 minutes ago, Phil said:

This DOKW doesn’t have enough juice or atmospheric support for a warm season base state transition to +ENSO.

I would say El Niño chances would go up more 2026-2027 with this year likely being neutral.

[GobBluth]

New GFS crashes the late week ridge by Saturday afternoon.

[ShawniganLake]

41 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

The first 2/3rds of June in 2008 were absolutely terrible in Seattle.    Including 10 days with highs in the 50s.   Beyond depressing for the longest days of the year by most people's standards... obviously not for a few people on here though.    Thankfully it doesn't look anything like this for the next couple of weeks.

Yea.  This isn’t looking anything like June 2008 here in the PNW

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

New GFS crashes the late week ridge by Saturday afternoon.

A week ago the GFS was insisting the system yesterday was going to carve out a huge trough parked over the west coast for days... but that won't be happening and instead the pattern remains quite progressive.    It will probably trend the same way for next weekend as well.   The 12Z GEM keeps things progressive and builds another ridge.

 

[Phil]

22 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Yea.  This isn’t looking anything like June 2008 here in the PNW

Why do you say that?

A neutered version of June 2008 doesn’t seem farfetched to me, looking at the progression of the system state going forward.

Obviously the shorter term pattern fluctuations won’t align perfectly (2025 will start out much warmer/drier, but a significant pattern change to troughing is coming mid-month).

[BLI snowman]

34 minutes ago, GobBluth said:

New GFS crashes the late week ridge by Saturday afternoon.

Historic.

[BLI snowman]

24 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

A week ago the GFS was insisting the system yesterday was going to carve out a huge trough parked over the west coast for days... but that won't be happening and instead the pattern remains quite progressive.    It will probably trend the same way for next weekend as well.   The 12Z GEM keeps things progressive and builds another ridge.

 

Yeah, I think it's fair to say that both ridging and rain/trough opportunities have mostly been neutered into a sort of bland + bone dry, quasi-progressive middle ground for the most part this spring as they've arrived.

Ridging and warmth have still generally won out of course, but following the complexion of much of last winter, the most interesting thing thus far has probably been the total lack of anything too dynamic overall. 

[ShawniganLake]

18 minutes ago, Phil said:

Why do you say that?

A neutered version of June 2008 doesn’t seem farfetched to me, looking at the progression of the system state going forward.

Obviously the shorter term pattern fluctuations won’t align perfectly (2025 will start out much warmer/drier, but a significant pattern change to troughing is coming mid-month).

Okay. The first half of June won’t be anything like 2008 in the PNW?  Feels pretty likely we are running several degrees above normal by mid month. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Bone dry for atleast the next 7-10 days. Hopefully phil is right about later this month. There’s been a few times Phil has called something correctly…just missing the timing by a week or two. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

We can still get big rainfalls in June. It actually hasn’t been too uncommon the past few years in western Washington atleast. 2020, 2021, 2022 and 2024 were all wetter than normal. We had 1.5” of rain in a single day in 2022. 

[Slushy Inch]

Looking like heatwave chances are up. Waiting for eps.

[Slushy Inch]

Gem is a ******* oven 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

Right before sunrise the aurora pulsed

 

 

 

[Anti Marine Layer]

26 minutes ago, Slushy Inch said:

Looking like heatwave chances are up. Waiting for eps.

Looks like 2021

[Omegaraptor]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Why do you say that?

A neutered version of June 2008 doesn’t seem farfetched to me, looking at the progression of the system state going forward.

Obviously the shorter term pattern fluctuations won’t align perfectly (2025 will start out much warmer/drier, but a significant pattern change to troughing is coming mid-month).

Maybe with the timing difference it might resemble the troughing in late June 2021. We’ll see.