July 2025 PNW Weather

[Tyler Mode]

60 degrees now with some high clouds moving overhead.  Let's hope for a coolish month haha

[T-Town]

Very calm this morning. Low of 57 here. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

People are still posting in the June thread. GFS has a deep trough over the PNW at the end of the run. 

[SunAndSnow]

71° at 8am. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

People are still posting in the June thread. GFS has a deep trough over the PNW at the end of the run. 

Big news if true... the GFS is rock solid accurate at 384 hours.     No summer this year.   

[ShawniganLake]

New CANSIPS 

 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Big news if true... the GFS is rock solid accurate at 384 hours.     No summer this year.   

I’d definitely say this summer so far has been on the warm side 1/3rd of the way through. Came close to 90 3 times so far and I’m sure we will get there at some point this month. 

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I’d definitely say this summer so far has been on the warm side 1/3rd of the way through. Came close to 90 3 times so far and I’m sure we will get there at some point this month. 

Yeah... the GFS is really depressing.    Constant cold and then it really crashes.   Feels hopeless.  

[Anti Marine Layer]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the GFS is really depressing.    Constant cold and then it really crashes.   Feels hopeless.  

Not very cold through July 14.

[TT-SEA]

31 minutes ago, Anti Marine Layer said:

Not very cold through July 14.

But the problem is that the GFS is seriously good beyond 14 days.  There is a tiny hope the 12Z run is different but any changes now will likely be minor.   2 weeks of warm, sunny weather is not enough to make up for having to endure 2 days of not warm and sunny.  No summer this year.  

[DeepFriedEgg]

When can we get a June 2021 in mid July so that PDX can hit 120F?

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

When can we get a June 2021 in mid July so that PDX can hit 120F?

I think it’ll be quite some time before we challenge June 2021 regionally. That was a unique perfect beast of a heatwave essentially. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

19 minutes ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I think it’ll be quite some time before we challenge June 2021 regionally. That was a unique perfect beast of a heatwave essentially. 

I agree. Once in a lifetime for sure. Maybe when one day when I’m real old we’ll get another shot.

[TT-SEA]

Already 72 at SEA at 9 a.m. which is a little surprising since the marine layer clouds made it almost to Olympia this morning. 

[T-Town]

Some interesting stats in the sea AFD this morning. Much less cloudy than normal which I would not have guessed. 

[TT-SEA]

12Z GFS coming in with 80, 80, 80, 80 at SEA for Thursday through Sunday.    

Seems like its missing the marine layer intrusion on Thursday that the ECMWF shows.   But then the ECMWF is in the upper 70s from Friday through Sunday so basically the same.  

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

Some interesting stats in the sea AFD this morning. Much less cloudy than normal which I would not have guessed. 

I don't trust those SEA cloud observations since even the thinnest layer of high clouds can be reported as cloudy... but that would make it even more sunny than the stats indicate.

Looking back it does seem like its been a fairly sunny year with all the sunny/cold weather in January and February and then a long stretch of unusually sunny weather from mid April through mid May.    And of course June seemed more sunny than usual as well.

 

[TT-SEA]

Always late to the party... but the GEM is finally catching up to the other models over the last few runs with the speed that troughing just disappears.

[Phishy Wx]

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Ooooof.

[ShawniganLake]

26 minutes ago, T-Town said:

Some interesting stats in the sea AFD this morning. Much less cloudy than normal which I would not have guessed. 

Main takeaway is it’s been dry and sunny.  Feels about right to me. 

[Deweydog]

13 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

I had a headlight lens taken out by one of those guys on Hwy 97 during the spring of 2001. Anal log?

[T-Town]

20 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Main takeaway is it’s been dry and sunny.  Feels about right to me. 

I wouldn’t have guessed almost 50 more sunny days than normal. Definitely noticed the dry. I do get that those things tend to go together…

[TT-SEA]

1 minute ago, T-Town said:

I wouldn’t have guessed almost 50 more sunny days than normal. Definitely noticed the dry. I do get that those things tend to go together…

Might not be 50 more sunny days.   Probably lots of 7/10 instead of 8/10 sky cover which isn't as dramatic but flips those days out of the "cloudy" category.

[T-Town]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Might not be 50 more sunny days.   Probably lots of 7/10 instead of 8/10 sky cover which isn't as dramatic but flips those days out of the "cloudy" category.

Makes sense. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Pretty disappointing to see that the ridging doesn’t last forever on the 12z GFS. Phalse alarm phrom Phil.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Started July out with a mild low of 61 with some high clouds around. Up to 73 now, which is about -4 on yesterday at this time. We’ll see if I can score a sub-60 midnight low with the stronger marine push this evening.

[Phil]

2 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

New CANSIPS 

 

Zero chance that tropical Atlantic pattern verifies. Zilch. Second month in a row it’s tried and failed to invert the -AMM like pattern.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

I don't trust those SEA cloud observations since even the thinnest layer of high clouds can be reported as cloudy... but that would make it even more sunny than the stats indicate.

Looking back it does seem like its been a fairly sunny year with all the sunny/cold weather in January and February and then a long stretch of unusually sunny weather from mid April through mid May.    And of course June seemed more sunny than usual as well.

 

That’s not how those cloud observations work.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

51 minutes ago, T-Town said:

I wouldn’t have guessed almost 50 more sunny days than normal. Definitely noticed the dry. I do get that those things tend to go together…

A lot of those sunny days seemed to come in January and February to start the year when we typically don’t have much sunshine. 

[TT-SEA]

10 minutes ago, Phil said:

That’s not how those cloud observations work.

Well the F6 data for SEA shows only 4 totally sunny days in June (using sky coverage of 0-2) and there were certainly way more days I would consider sunny in the Seattle area last month.   High clouds definitely count as clouds in those stats but not so much to a person experiencing the day on the ground when the high clouds are basically transparent and wispy.

[BLI snowman]

33 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Pretty disappointing to see that the ridging doesn’t last forever on the 12z GFS. Phalse alarm phrom Phil.

Euro looks like it's safely 3-5 degrees above average for the region through mid-month.

Coolest days should come in right around 80ish at PDX this week before we warm right back up. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Euro looks like it's safely 3-5 degrees above average for the region through mid-month.

Coolest days should come in right around 80ish at PDX this week before we warm right back up. 

Yeah, Euro and its ensembles have easily been the most bullish on warmth lately. The EPS has been a horror show.

[Deweydog]

RIP Jimmy Swaggart

[fubario]

3 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Yeah... the GFS is really depressing.    Constant cold and then it really crashes.   Feels hopeless.  

Mariners win totals?

[ClarkCountyChill]

Looks like VUO will end up +1.5 for June. They are missing data from the 10th, a day which would have pulled the monthly average up a hair more.

Big story is that we were +3 on the monthly high, despite the VERY cool LIA throwback daze on June 20-21.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS looks warm right through the end of the run.  

This is a strong signal for troughing in AK for 15 days out... usually the anomalies are totally muted by that range.

[BLI snowman]

Another thought I had is that given how crazy dry this year is turning out to be around the region, it does feel like the type of year that historically would be setting us up for a really anomalously wet stretch somewhere in the back half either during the fall or early winter. I don't have much faith in August. 

Who knows in our current climate state, but even something like September 2013 or November 2006 would be modernish examples of such a thing. 

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Deweydog said:

RIP Jimmy Swaggart

Didn't know he was even still alive. 

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Another thought I had is that given how crazy dry this year is turning out to be around the region, it does feel like the type of year that historically would be setting us up for a really anomalously wet stretch somewhere in the back half either during the fall or early winter. I don't have much faith in August. 

Who knows in our current climate state, but even something like September 2013 or November 2006 would be modernish examples of such a thing. 

Or we could go all in like 1985!