July 2025 PNW Weather

[Deweydog]

3 minutes ago, fubario said:

Mariners win totals?

They haven’t hit 94 since 2001. Runaway warming has not yet reached the SODO district.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, TT-SEA said:

Or we could go all in like 1985!

Eh, to that point though the fall of 1985 was clearly still pretty remarkable. It wasn't historically wet but we still had a solidly wet and cold September/October to disrupt the drought before the full northern stream collapse onto us in November. Still a very insane progression, just a bit less rainy than some others. 

[GobBluth]

Gfs and Euro are completely out of phase past day 7.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Another thought I had is that given how crazy dry this year is turning out to be around the region, it does feel like the type of year that historically would be setting us up for a really anomalously wet stretch somewhere in the back half either during the fall or early winter. I don't have much faith in August. 

Who knows in our current climate state, but even something like September 2013 or November 2006 would be modernish examples of such a thing. 

Low pass analog pools are all-in on a warm/dry autumn in the west/PNW this year. One of the stronger signals I’ve seen.

Of course any emergent ENSO/LF state not currently present could change that equation, but not seeing any reason to suspect that would happen.

[Phil]

A growing cluster of AIFS members are trying to break down the +TNH/+PNA pattern after just 5 days. Worth watching given how it outperformed the standard EPS for early July at-range.

7/10-7/20 is the heat ridge window but it might not hold through that entire period. 

[Jbolin]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

7/10-7/20 is the heat ridge window but it might not hold through that entire period. 

Yea, I'm ok with that. 

[Deweydog]

4 minutes ago, Phil said:

A growing cluster of AIFS members are trying to break down the +TNH/+PNA pattern after just 5 days. Worth watching given how it outperformed the standard EPS for early July at-range.

7/10-7/20 is the heat ridge window but it might not hold through that entire period. 

Ten day heatwaves are rare.

[BLI snowman]

8 minutes ago, Phil said:

Low pass analog pools are all-in on a warm/dry autumn in the west/PNW this year. One of the stronger signals I’ve seen.

Of course any emergent ENSO/LF state not currently present could change that equation, but not seeing any reason to suspect that would happen.

Which years?

There's definitely some precedent for ridgy + dry falls after a bone dry first 7 months like this year, but I think you'd have to go pretty far back to years like 1952 and 1944.

It's certainly possible in our present climate state. I'd never bet against warm/dry now. But more often than not a really dry early year sees some significant offsetting activity in the fall. 

[Phil]

Solid thunderstorm just dropped temps from 95°F to 75°F which is the new daily low temp.

These convection-driven 3pm low temps have been increasingly common in recent years as we’ve lost the ability to cool at night.

Maybe this will finally break (or at least pause) the perpetual cycle of heat building on itself locally day after day.

[Phishy Wx]

WOW !

 

 

 

[Cold Snap]

Up to 85 already here. Already past the forecast high of 83.

[T-Town]

80 here. Three degrees behind yesterday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

BOOM!! 90F

[Phil]

Went 20+ months without this much snow in a daily forecast. If only it were winter  

[Timmy Supercell]

Just now, Phil said:

Went 20+ months without this much snow in a daily forecast. If only it were winter  

Your place is something else, we actually had at least 1 blizzard in Ashland this January. The winter that really was a dud was '23-'24. 

[Timmy Supercell]

16 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

BOOM!! 90F

Dishing them out 2021 style. 

[Timmy Supercell]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Solid thunderstorm just dropped temps from 95°F to 75°F which is the new daily low temp.

These convection-driven 3pm low temps have been increasingly common in recent years as we’ve lost the ability to cool at night.

Maybe this will finally break (or at least pause) the perpetual cycle of heat building on itself locally day after day.

This will be my first night in the 60's in what seems like two weeks. Summer came in hard this year. 

[Phil]

13 minutes ago, Timmy Supercell said:

Your place is something else, we actually had at least 1 blizzard in Ashland this January. The winter that really was a dud was '23-'24. 

Winter 24/25 was alright, finished with average snowfall and a solidly colder than average DJF.

I was referring to the awful stretch from 4/2022 to 12/2023. After the blizzard on 3/12/22, we didn’t have another meaningful snowfall until 01/2024 (same month the PNW had the arctic blast).

[Timmy Supercell]

5 minutes ago, Phil said:

Winter 24/25 was alright, finished with average snowfall and a solidly colder than average DJF.

I was referring to the awful stretch from 4/2022 to 12/2023. After the blizzard on 3/12/22, we didn’t have another meaningful snowfall until 01/2024 (same month the PNW had the arctic blast).

Oh I see. '22-23 would've also been mostly a dud if it weren't for the major December arctic air. Though it didn't snow that month it was almost like the short version of Dec 2013 in the PNW. 

[Doom Buster]

1 hour ago, Phishy Wx said:

WOW !

 

 

 

Slowest tornado ever. Beautiful.

[High Desert Mathew]

Was it Phil that said this will be a really dull hurricane season? What are we, on F already with Flossie in the pacific? Not even the 4th yet. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Looks like a “surprise” 90 for much of the metro today. PDX will be up to 5 for the season already. Frigid start to summer

[Cold Snap]

24 minutes ago, High Desert Mathew said:

Was it Phil that said this will be a really dull hurricane season? What are we, on F already with Flossie in the pacific? Not even the 4th yet. 

I think he was talking about the Atlantic. Though the Atlantic is already on B and the C name could form within the next week. Currently at a 30% chance.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

7 hours ago, ShawniganLake said:

New CANSIPS 

 

Always a bad idea to bet against torching, particularly during those months.

[Meatyorologist]

Got ourselves a polygon

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Meatyorologist said:

Got ourselves a polygon

 

 

[T-Town]

Offshore breeze kicked in and now we’re up to 88.3 which exceeds my high for yesterday. Could be my first 90 of the year. 

[TT-SEA]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

WOW !

 

 

 

This video from North Dakota last week is one of the most haunting tornado videos I have ever seen.   Something about the way the lightning illuminates an almost impossible scene and the sounds of the sirens.   Gave me chills.   Reminds me of the movie War of the Worlds.

And the voice of the guy taking the video sounds exactly like my brother-in-law... with a thick midwest accent to boot. 

 

[LowerGarfield]

High today was about 98.9 around 330pm. Currently 97F.

[ShawniganLake]

85 here.  Heat index 86F.  Summer perfection imo.  Doesn’t get better than that. 

[Meatyorologist]

51 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

This video from North Dakota last week is one of the most haunting tornado videos I have ever seen.   Something about the way the lightning illuminates an almost impossible scene and the sounds of the sirens.   Gave me chills.   Reminds me of the movie War of the Worlds.

And the voice of the guy taking the video sounds exactly like my brother-in-law... with a thick midwest accent to boot. 

 

That's the mesocyclone... Video is being shared around with the clickbaity assumption that the whole cloud is the tornado. Still spooky though

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

87 today. Looks like some average weather for a few days then a warm up. July doing July things. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

That's the mesocyclone... Video is being shared around with the clickbaity assumption that the whole cloud is the tornado. Still spooky though

Yeah... more the vibe in the dark with the sirens and this ungodly structure being intermittently illuminated in the sky.

[TT-SEA]

2 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

85 here.  Heat index 86F.  Summer perfection imo.  Doesn’t get better than that. 

My son just texted me from a golf course in Dallas and said it's only 88 there and surprisingly pleasant. 

[Phishy Wx]

98 today.  100 on the car therm

[ShawniganLake]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

My son just texted me from a golf course in Dallas and said it's only 88 there and surprisingly pleasant. 

Sounds pretty pleasant for that part of the world. 

[TT-SEA]

Just now, ShawniganLake said:

Sounds pretty pleasant for that part of the world. 

I think I prepped them too much about the unbearable heat in Dallas in July and then it failed to meet my build up.  

[ShawniganLake]

4 hours ago, Phil said:

Solid thunderstorm just dropped temps from 95°F to 75°F which is the new daily low temp.

These convection-driven 3pm low temps have been increasingly common in recent years as we’ve lost the ability to cool at night.

Maybe this will finally break (or at least pause) the perpetual cycle of heat building on itself locally day after day.

Temps are dropping faster than the Yankees in the standings.  

[Omegaraptor]

6 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I think I prepped them too much about the unbearable heat in Dallas in July and then it failed to meet my build up.  

Both times I’ve been to Chicago in the summer were under a trough with temps in the 70s and low 80s. I was prepared for heat and humidity…

My first visit in very early September one day was in the mid-60s and drizzling at 3-4pm.

[Omegaraptor]

PDX was the only station in the metro that didn’t hit 90.

Sensor overcorrection?