July 2025 PNW Weather

[DeepFriedEgg]

I’ve noticed PDX has been peaking in temp earlier than in past summers. High temp is usually achieved by 4pm now when it’s usually been 6pm in past early summer days. Wonder if that sensor change did something?

[Phil]

33 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Temps are dropping faster than the Yankees in the standings.  

Jays will choke when it counts as usual. You’re just fortunate to catch us in our annual midsummer slump.  

[BLI snowman]

7 minutes ago, Omegaraptor said:

PDX was the only station in the metro that didn’t hit 90.

Sensor overcorrection?

The gusty winds are fairly impressive today too. 32mph might not seem like much but from the NW that's pretty strong for them there on a summer day.  Sure didn't help hold the temps back much though! 

[Omegaraptor]

4 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The gusty winds are fairly impressive today too. 32mph might not seem like much but from the NW that's pretty strong for them there on a summer day.  Sure didn't help hold the temps back much though! 

Yeah that probably explains the slight difference at PDX today.

92 at Aurora airport, which is the closest station to my work in Wilsonville.

[TT-SEA]

After tracking the AIFS and new AIFS ensemble for a few days... I can say that its definitely less consistent than the ECWMF/EPS.   I am not impressed.    Its not like some revolutionary new tool based on what I have seen so far.   

[DeepFriedEgg]

14 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The gusty winds are fairly impressive today too. 32mph might not seem like much but from the NW that's pretty strong for them there on a summer day.  Sure didn't help hold the temps back much though! 

It kind of makes sense that PDX would be cooler on a day with NW winds given they are south of a big river.

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

After tracking the AIFS and new AIFS ensemble for a few days... I can say that it’s definitely less consistent than the ECWMF/EPS.   I am not impressed.    It’s not like some revolutionary new tool based on what I have seen so far.   

This is incorrect. It scores significantly higher beyond D5 (and even more-so beyond D10) relative to the standard EPS (IFS). There is a reason we don’t verify model guidance via subjective glances at 500mb maps over a few days’ time.  

While I’m not sure I’d use the word “revolutionary”, it is a demonstrable improvement.

[Tyler Mode]

35 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

The gusty winds are fairly impressive today too. 32mph might not seem like much but from the NW that's pretty strong for them there on a summer day.  Sure didn't help hold the temps back much though! 

Looks like they did?  87 at my house in Battle Ground.

[Tyler Mode]

21 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

It kind of makes sense that PDX would be cooler on a day with NW winds given they are south of a big river.

I was sitting in traffic on the I-5 bridge the other day, and the temp on my car thermometer dropped from 88 to 84 and then went back to 88 after crossing.  The river has at least some affect on temperatures for sure.

[TT-SEA]

20 minutes ago, Phil said:

This is incorrect. It scores significantly higher beyond D5 (and even more-so beyond D10) relative to the standard EPS (IFS). There is a reason we don’t verify model guidance via subjective glances at 500mb maps over a few days’ time.  

While I’m not sure I’d use the word “revolutionary”, it is a demonstrable improvement.

It offered zero insight into what was going to happen for the period I have been tracking for over a week.   Zero.   It has swung all over the place and its only good for the upper levels.   It presents unrealistically smooth solutions and then changes just as wildly from run to run as any other model.   If we plan to use that as the main model to track arctic events it will literally drive everyone insane with its swings and inconsistency... so what good is it?   

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Temps have cooled off quite a bit with the shift to onshore flow here. Down to 75. 

[Phishy Wx]

still 93 here

[Meatyorologist]

29 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

It offered zero insight into what was going to happen for the period I have been tracking for over a week.   Zero.   It has swung all over the place and its only good for the upper levels.   It presents unrealistically smooth solutions and then changes just as wildly from run to run as any other model.   If we plan to use that as the main model to track arctic events it will literally drive everyone insane with its swings and inconsistency... so what good is it?   

Tim rediscovers that long range forecasting is still hard

[TT-SEA]

7 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim rediscovers that long range forecasting is still hard

But it was supposed to get easier based on the hype!

[Omegaraptor]

8 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim rediscovers that long range forecasting is still hard

If we had a magical model that was perfectly accurate 15 days out, this forum would probably get pretty boring.

[Meatyorologist]

Just now, TT-SEA said:

But it was supposed to get easier based on the hype!

Maybe the aifs is flailing in the LR because it's detailed enough to commit to a cluster of solutions out at that range...akin to how legacy/physics based ensembles can flail in the mid range when inputs change. maybe the aifs is just reaching that point later.

[MV_snow]

1 hour ago, Phil said:

Jays will choke when it counts as usual. You’re just fortunate to catch us in our annual midsummer slump.  

Nothing against Shawnigan personally, but I’ve always been bothered that BC baseball fans root for the Jays and not the M’s. How about cheering for your Cascadia brethren instead of a team 3,000 miles away? 

[TT-SEA]

12 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Maybe the aifs is flailing in the LR because it's detailed enough to commit to a cluster of solutions out at that range...akin to how legacy/physics based ensembles can flail in the mid range when inputs change. maybe the aifs is just reaching that point later.

Maybe.   But it only stopped swinging at 4 days out so not even long range.  Even the ICON figures it out within 3 or 4 days. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Down to 70 now. Feels much better outside. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

I'm not impressed with the ECMWF AIF from what I've seen. But I'm open to it if they say it scores high. The EPS was really bad when it first came out, then it got better over the past year. Maybe the AIF is upgrading too. 

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, Phil said:

Jays will choke when it counts as usual. You’re just fortunate to catch us in our annual midsummer slump.  

Yankees are easily the biggest chokers in the past 15 years. Highest payroll and no championships.  

But yeah.  Jays might get a wild card spot and then get eliminated would be my guess.

 

 

 

[LowerGarfield]

86F which is warm and I'm sweating but it was actually a great evening for a 30-40 min walk. Made me glad I don't live in a humid climate like Phil. 

[Positive PNA Enjoyoor]

87 today, hottest temp of the year. 

Down to 60 now.

Day after day of perfect weather, wow.  

[MrWeatherTalk]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim rediscovers that long range forecasting is still hard

He earns the Master Long Range Discovery Badge achievement. 

[MrWeatherTalk]

1 hour ago, Omegaraptor said:

If we had a magical model that was perfectly accurate 15 days out, this forum would probably get pretty boring.

Not to me. I'd love seeing people's own personal views of it and the effects in their area.

[MrWeatherTalk]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Tim rediscovers that long range forecasting is still hard

Sounds like an old 1920s radio drama. (Cues organ music)

[High Desert Mathew]

Beautiful sky after the storms this afternoon. 

[Deweydog]

Hasn’t been a great summer for sunsets so far but tonight at least tried…

[ShawniganLake]

2 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

After tracking the AIFS and new AIFS ensemble for a few days... I can say that its definitely less consistent than the ECWMF/EPS.   I am not impressed.    Its not like some revolutionary new tool based on what I have seen so far.   

Definitely seems to be more flippy floppy than the regular ECMWF/EPS to me.  Often large swings from run to run. 

[Phishy Wx]

78 and Fair

[Thunder98]

Some activity in far Northern California this evening.

 

 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Hopefully not too much dry lightning in southern Oregon and N California...

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Hopefully not too much dry lightning in southern Oregon and N California...

Actually looks like a good portion of the area got a nice soaking rain. Mt Shasta City has picked up .20" so far this evening with moderate rain continuing, and Klamath Falls got .38" earlier.

[Phishy Wx]

Current 'rare' Atlantic Nina signals pending Pacific weak Nina for winter 25-26.  Interesting read

 

https://www.severe-weather.eu/global-weather/rare-atlantic-la-nina-hurricane-season-impact-winter-2025-2026-reach-over-united-states-canada-fa/

[Phishy Wx]

[NWbyNW]

It looks like things are going to warm up in the long term.  But for now, 60s for several days in Everett followed by a few days of low 70s.  At the end of the forecast range, they show high 70s.  Would be nice to see some rain before the Fourth of July.  We will see how well this forecast holds up.

 

 

[NWbyNW]

Didn't want to read this.

[StormchaserChuck1]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Surprised.. looks like a PDO map. I wonder why that would be? Unless there is something that is forcing both patterns together. 

[TT-SEA]

06Z ECMWF... goldilocks weather.

 

[TT-SEA]

EPS is identical...