July 2025 PNW Weather

[Rubus Leucodermis]

13 hours ago, Tyler Mode said:

I was sitting in traffic on the I-5 bridge the other day, and the temp on my car thermometer dropped from 88 to 84 and then went back to 88 after crossing.  The river has at least some affect on temperatures for sure.

When I lived in Portland, Peninsula Park (as its name implies, a peninsula, it is where the Willamette meets the Columbia) was one of the places where I would go during heat waves. It was at least 5˚F cooler than the rest of the city out there.

[iFred]

Lovely summer morning in Bellevue. Weird to think we are only three months away from long shadows, golden trees, and brisk mornings.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

Maxes were around 30˚C (86˚F) while camping Sunday and Monday, and about the same here in East Van yesterday afternoon. On the torchy side, but not extremely so. Much warmer than that and it’s not comfortable anymore. As someone else opined, I am glad we don’t have the high summer dew points that eastern parts of the continent do.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Looks like bottom tier heat coming up.

[Phishy Wx]

Headed to Boulder, CO for the July 4th weekend Phish concerts.  Shows are tomorrow, Friday and Saturday at Folsom stadium at UofC.  Weather looks pretty good, warm to hot but not terrible.  Hoping to see a couple pop up T-storms but hopefully not causing problems for the shows.

[TT-SEA]

9 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Headed to Boulder, CO for the July 4th weekend Phish concerts.  Shows are tomorrow, Friday and Saturday at Folsom stadium at UofC.  Weather looks pretty good, warm to hot but not terrible.  Hoping to see a couple pop up T-storms but hopefully not causing problems for the shows.

Plural.   Concerts.    I am trying to understand why someone my age would follow a band around the country and see the same show multiple times.    Had to look it up.   I think I get it now.

[Thunder98]

Some areas received over an inch of rain with that storm last night north of Redding.

 

 

[T-Town]

44 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Plural.   Concerts.    I am trying to understand why someone my age would follow a band around the country and see the same show multiple times.    Had to look it up.   I think I get it now.

Assuming it’s like the Grateful Dead, who had a similar following, every show is different. Sounds like fun to me. 

[Phil]

15 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

It offered zero insight into what was going to happen for the period I have been tracking for over a week.   Zero.   It has swung all over the place and its only good for the upper levels.   It presents unrealistically smooth solutions and then changes just as wildly from run to run as any other model.   If we plan to use that as the main model to track arctic events it will literally drive everyone insane with its swings and inconsistency... so what good is it?   

I don’t know what model you were looking at, but the AIFS ensembles were more consistent than other guidance (especially the GFS) and correctly pegged the troughy interlude in early July while the EPS projected ridging.

Like, literally none of what you said above is true. Can we at least not wander into alternate realities if we’re going to debate this?

[Phil]

12 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

That’s for Atlantic Niño? We have an Atlantic Niña at the moment (and I doubt it will “reverse” given the bloated Atlantic HC/+NAO/strong NATL High regime).

Possibly why analog pools are projecting such an intensely warm/dry autumn in the West/PNW.

[TT-SEA]

6 minutes ago, Phil said:

I don’t know what model you were looking at, but the AIFS ensembles were more consistent than other guidance (especially the GFS) and correctly pegged the troughy interlude in early July while the EPS projected ridging.

Like, literally none of what you said above is true.

Literally everything I said is true.    I was trying to figure out what will happen over the holiday weekend and it was all over the place like all the other models.   No consistency with the details.  It offered me no additional guidance because it changed with every run.  Of course now its settled down but that is a given at 3 days out.

[Phil]

9 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Literally everything I said is true.    I was trying to figure out what will happen over the holiday weekend and it was all over the place like all the other models.   No consistency with the details.  It offered me no additional guidance because it changed with every run.  Of course now it’s settled down but that is a given at 3 days out.

Yet somehow I knew exactly what would happen, even down to the shortwave trough a week in advance? How is that possible?

It offered me plenty of guidance. Again, there’s a reason we don’t verify models with our subjective recollections of 500mb maps. We can actually CALCULATE which models score highest.

[TT-SEA]

3 minutes ago, Phil said:

Yet somehow I knew exactly what would happen, even down to the shortwave trough a week in advance? How is that possible?

It offered me plenty of guidance. Again, there’s a reason we don’t verify models with our subjective recollections of 500mb maps. We can actually CALCULATE which models score highest.

Big picture troughing over western North America is way too broad to determine what will actually happen in terms of tangible weather.    And it was even wrong about that in terms of how quickly the troughing dissolves.

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

Plural.   Concerts.    I am trying to understand why someone my age would follow a band around the country and see the same show multiple times.    Had to look it up.   I think I get it now.

well they're like the Grateful Dead were in the 60s until 1995 when Jerry died.  they never play the same show twice.  so you can go to 3 shows over a weekend and see 60 unique songs.

I've seen Phish 173 times since 1994.  I have friends who have seen them over 500 times.  it's a fun thing to travel around the world to concerts run into the same people and acquaintances that you've met by going on tour.  In college and shortly after we'd go in a run of shows at a time.  A couple of summers in the late 90s I did whole summer tours.  It's just a fun hobby.  For reference,  I was later to the Grateful Dead scene, saw my first show of their's in 1991 at 16 in high school, caught them 21 times between 91-95 and when Jerry died I moved fully into the Phish camp.  Not to say I don't like other music or go to other bands concerts, I do.  but Phish is my first love

 

[TT-SEA]

4 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

well they're like the Grateful Dead were in the 60s until 1995 when Jerry died.  they never play the same show twice.  so you can go to 3 shows over a weekend and see 60 unique songs.

I've seen Phish 173 times since 1994.  I have friends who have seen them over 500 times.  it's a fun thing to travel around the world to concerts run into the same people and acquaintances that you've met by going on tour.  In college and shortly after we'd go in a run of shows at a time.  A couple of summers in the late 90s I did whole summer tours.  It's just a fun hobby.  For reference,  I was later to the Grateful Dead scene, saw my first show of their's in 1991 at 16 in high school, caught them 21 times between 91-95 and when Jerry died I moved fully into the Phish camp.  Not to say I don't like other music or go to other bands concerts, I do.  but Phish is my first love

 

If you can see 60 unique songs over 3 days then you are just getting steam of consciousness babble.   Whatever comes into their mind at the time.    Seems really cultish to me.   

[Phishy Wx]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

If you can see 60 unique songs over 3 days then you are just getting steam of consciousness babble.   Whatever comes into their mind at the time.    Seems really cultish to me.   

they repeat songs over a tour, but they typically do not do the same song in a 3 to 4 show rotation.  there are rare songs they may play once in 200 shows or something,  everyone has a favorite rarity they're chasing.  It's fun for a stats nerd like myself to keep up with what I've seen and what I still haven't.  There is a college class/conference I think at Oregon St that studies Phish.  I believe UC Santa Cruz has one about the Grateful Dead. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

Looks like the heat currently shown on the models wouldn’t be quite enough to put us on track for an all-time record hot month, just yet. Pretty big gut punch, but there’s still time.

[Rubus Leucodermis]

45 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

If you can see 60 unique songs over 3 days then you are just getting steam of consciousness babble.   Whatever comes into their mind at the time.    Seems really cultish to me.   

Cultish? Like Jim Jones? Blindly following an all-controlling leader?

Or just a music scene that you, personally, are not part of?

[TT-SEA]

14 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Cultish? Like Jim Jones? Blindly following an all-controlling leader?

Or just a music scene that you, personally, are not part of?

It sounds pretty cultish.    But not Jim Jones level.   

Sounds like an excuse to do drugs with same people hundreds of times!

[DeepFriedEgg]

53 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Looks like the heat currently shown on the models wouldn’t be quite enough to put us on track for an all-time record hot month, just yet. Pretty big gut punch, but there’s still time.

Tragic

[Deweydog]

2 hours ago, T-Town said:

Assuming it’s like the Grateful Dead, who had a similar following, every show is different. Sounds like fun to me. 

We went to the last three shows of the Rush Time Machine tour in 2011 which ended in “Seattle” (after Ridgefield and Vancouver BC) 14 years ago TODAY. The Gorge show was pretty ridiculous as at the time there was strong suspicion it was their final big tour. Didn’t end up being the case but they left it all on the stage. Weather was nice. It’s nice right now. 

[Phil]

59 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Looks like the heat currently shown on the models wouldn’t be quite enough to put us on track for an all-time record hot month, just yet. Pretty big gut punch, but there’s still time.

The MJO/BSISO state favors heat shifting to the West for at least a week in mid-July. It can’t stay in the east all summer. Even that brutal 1980 pattern took breaks.

[ClarkCountyChill]

2 minutes ago, Phil said:

The MJO/BSISO state favors heat shifting to the West for at least a week in mid-July. It can’t stay in the east all summer. Even that brutal 1980 pattern took breaks.

The BSIBS is a new one.

[Phishy Wx]

22 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

The BSIBS is a new one.

sounds like a testing panel on annual physical blood work lol

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Phishy Wx said:

Headed to Boulder, CO for the July 4th weekend Phish concerts.  Shows are tomorrow, Friday and Saturday at Folsom stadium at UofC.  Weather looks pretty good, warm to hot but not terrible.  Hoping to see a couple pop up T-storms but hopefully not causing problems for the shows.

Good chance you'll see a few storms. Probably during the shows.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Looks like the heat currently shown on the models wouldn’t be quite enough to put us on track for an all-time record hot month, just yet. Pretty big gut punch, but there’s still time.

This worked last month!

[ClarkCountyChill]

8 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

This worked last month!

I’d agree with this statement if June had actually ended up cool. +1.5 in this neck of the woods.

The fact that our only two choices in the warm season seem to be modestly above normal temps or all-time record breaking heat is sort of what Justin and I have been trying to convey.

[Front Ranger]

8 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

I’d agree with this statement if June had actually ended up cool. +1.5 in this neck of the woods.

The fact that our only two choices in the warm season seem to be modestly above normal temps or all-time record breaking heat is sort of what Justin and I have been trying to convey.

All the early talk about a top tier hot/dry month did not materialize. So you and Justin doublehandedly (him more than you) managed to make the better choice happen!

[ClarkCountyChill]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

All the early talk about a top tier hot/dry month did not materialize. So you and Justin doublehandedly (him more than you) managed to make the better choice happen!

This silly redirection doesn’t make anything I said in the last post less true.

[Phishy Wx]

oof next week

 

 

[Omegaraptor]

4 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Some areas received over an inch of rain with that storm last night north of Redding.

 

 

Right smack on some of the most flammable forests in the entire Lower 48. Great to see.

That area is fascinating climatologically. You have basically Oregon Coast-like winter rainfall in some spots coupled with desert-like summers… with year-to-year precipitation variability on par with the monsoonal tropics. Not many places quite like it in North America, or even the world really.

[T-Town]

1 hour ago, TT-SEA said:

It sounds pretty cultish.    But not Jim Jones level.   

Sounds like an excuse to do drugs with same people hundreds of times!

And?

[RentonHill]

22 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

oof next week

 

 

Typical Brokane summer

[Positive PNA Enjoyoor]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

Plural.   Concerts.    I am trying to understand why someone my age would follow a band around the country and see the same show multiple times.    Had to look it up.   I think I get it now.

Lol.  hippies, man.

[Front Ranger]

1 hour ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

This silly redirection doesn’t make anything I said in the last post less true.

Not misdirection, your point was different than my original one.

[OysterPrintout]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

If you can see 60 unique songs over 3 days then you are just getting steam of consciousness babble.   Whatever comes into their mind at the time.    Seems really cultish to me.   

Breaking news blues and jazz fans now classified as cult in very normal way of thinking

[TT-SEA]

13 minutes ago, OysterPrintout said:

Breaking news blues and jazz fans now classified as cult in very normal way of thinking

Not the same.    Of course you know that.   

[Meatyorologist]

4 hours ago, TT-SEA said:

If you can see 60 unique songs over 3 days then you are just getting steam of consciousness babble.   Whatever comes into their mind at the time.    Seems really cultish to me.   

>Local North Bend resident is too internally fearful to enjoy art that doesn't conform to genre. And also his weather preferences are stinky poo poo more at 11

[Meatyorologist]

Dynamic sky today. Yes I was waiting for the bridge!

[T-Town]

4 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

Not the same.    Of course you know that.   

Sitting in the sun listening to music you love with a few thousand people who love it too. This is a very strange thing to be hating on.