July 2025 PNW Weather

[Rubus Leucodermis]

5 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

I think the real question is whether they hit 105 again. 

I'd put the odds around 50/50.

Also feel that SEA is due for a triple decker.

Not so sure about that last one. Triple digit temps are pretty rare at SEA. Of course, that’s mostly in the records for a climate that no longer exists. But I still kinda doubt it.

[BLI snowman]

11 minutes ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Not so sure about that last one. Triple digit temps are pretty rare at SEA. Of course, that’s mostly in the records for a climate that no longer exists. But I still kinda doubt it.

97-99ish peaks aren't too rare there. A lot of those will just now be getting stretched out an extra degree or two. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

3 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

97-99ish peaks aren't too rare there. A lot of those will just now be getting stretched out an extra degree or two. 

I think SEA will hit 100 atleast once or twice in the next 10 years. Which would be exceptional for SEA. Don’t think we beat 108 anytime soon though. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Much nicer today as it was sunny and got to 84F. Some 10F cooler than yesterday. Let's have that plenty of times this summer!

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

97-99ish peaks aren't too rare there. A lot of those will just now be getting stretched out an extra degree or two. 

96F is a pretty sharp cutoff for temps here.. a cutoff which has been extended a bit a la August 2020 reaching 98F. 100s are usually an east wind/adiabatic type of reading with an already exceptional airmass getting boosted. a hot airmass or effcient descent on their own max out in the mid 90s usually. early July 2015 is a great example of airmassing our way to the mid 90s without any easterly help

[Meatyorologist]

KSEA reeeealy reached for that 75F today

[Saruman]

Crazy temperature drop in Buckeye, AZ with a storm dropping temperatures from the 100s to low to mid 70s with dew points in the 70s. They recived over an inch of rain in just one hour!

 

 

[Meatyorologist]

22 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

Crazy temperature drop in Buckeye, AZ with a storm dropping temperatures from the 100s to low to mid 70s with dew points in the 70s. They recived over an inch of rain in just one hour!

 

 

The desert is gonna turn green as it blooms over the next week!

[DareDuck]

Not in town but .35” from that thunderstorm yesterday in Bend. Looks like there were some new fire starts from lightning, hopefully they can can get a handle on them the next few days. 

[Phil]

4 hours ago, Positive PNA enjoyoor said:

Drugs are cool, anyway.  Nothing beats going around to local bars and getting absolutely plastered while listening to local country bands.

Don’t give me any ideas…

[DeepFriedEgg]

Our much anticipated ridging episode is completely falling apart!

[Phil]

17 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Our much anticipated ridging episode is completely falling apart!

The IO/E-Hem standing wave appears to be trending stronger relative to the WPAC MJO on the EPS.

Seldom happens that way, usually it’s the opposite trend. Still time for it to reverse. But it’s hard to deny the fact this base state (wave-2 structure lead by E-Hem) is new and interesting.

[Anti Marine Layer]

1 hour ago, TigerWoodsLibido said:

Much nicer today as it was sunny and got to 84F. Some 10F cooler than yesterday. Let's have that plenty of times this summer!

That means less football plays.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 hour ago, KeyPeninsula_Wx said:

I think SEA will hit 100 atleast once or twice in the next 10 years. Which would be exceptional for SEA. Don’t think we beat 108 anytime soon though. 

This seems like an easy bet. 

[Meatyorologist]

9 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

This seems like an easy bet. 

I expect about four or five in the next decade. We've been relatively spared of east wind events in the heart of the warm season in the last half decade. Oct 2022 would have been 100-105 had things fully mixed.

[ClarkCountyChill]

Really gorgeous day here. Morning clouds and afternoon sun, with a cool breeze and puffy fair-weather cumulus sticking around throughout the day. 76/54 spread here. Big improvement on yesterday’s 88/61.

Clear and cool this evening. 61 currently with light winds.

[DeepFriedEgg]

14 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Really gorgeous day here. Morning clouds and afternoon sun, with a cool breeze and puffy fair-weather cumulus sticking around throughout the day. 76/54 spread here. Big improvement on yesterday’s 88/61.

Clear and cool this evening. 61 currently with light winds.

Chilly, below avg day!

[NWbyNW]

53F and very windy here tonight.  It started getting windy at around 6PM to my understanding.  Some strong gusts but the flag pole and wind chimes are going non stop.  Even some light errant droplets of rain.  It does not feel like summer, but actually an autumn storm right now. I love it. 

High temp of 67F today in Everett. 

[NWbyNW]

Temps continue to drop.  Now down to 53F.

Forecast still shows no 80F degree days, which is nice.  But it does get warm.  Sadly no rain before or after the fireworks.  Just nonstop sun. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

The Northwest is cold in Jan-March 6-8 months after a +AO July

Big +AO being modeled.. this is going to be one of the strongest +AO's on record for May-mid July

Following Jan-March

Feb is -PNA

[Meatyorologist]

13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

The Northwest is cold in Jan-March 6-8 months after a +AO July

Big +AO being modeled.. this is going to be one of the strongest +AO's on record for May-mid July

Following Jan-March

Feb is -PNA

Your predictions are weirdly accurate. Many of your telleconnections seem absurd and esoteric but there is a shockingly long line of coincidences which support your analysis.

Could be my last winter in Seattle. I'd hoped my final goodbye to our winter climate wouldn't just be a really cold fart from the northeast.

[StormchaserChuck1]

34 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Your predictions are weirdly accurate. Many of your telleconnections seem absurd and esoteric but there is a shockingly long line of coincidences which support your analysis.

It's based on a lot of data.. sometimes it shows significant correlation, sometimes it does not. I think the July +AO is a "pattern" that is part of a global happening, so it makes sense that this rolls forward to something meaningful. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

July 1st was the most -PDO day on record. Last October the dailies came out to -2.6 averaged out over 30 days, and the monthly was -3.81 (lowest monthly on record). So it might be safe to assume July will be <-3 monthly. 

[Anti Marine Layer]

7 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

July 1st was the most -PDO day on record. Last October the dailies came out to -2.6 averaged out over 30 days, and the monthly was -3.81 (lowest monthly on record). So it might be safe to assume July will be <-3 monthly. 

Yikes. Ice cold Pacificola is keeping the coastal temperatures well below normal from Lompoc northward. There's a possibility Morro Bay does not see 60 F for the entire month of July. Keep the wetsuits handy.

[Front Ranger]

10 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Hour 246 is not the mid range...

18z 7 days out.

 

12z

 

6z continued this trend. 0z Euro was also notably cooler and had this by day 10.

[Phil]

3 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Your predictions are weirdly accurate. Many of your telleconnections seem absurd and esoteric but there is a shockingly long line of coincidences which support your analysis.

Could be my last winter in Seattle. I'd hoped my final goodbye to our winter climate wouldn't just be a really cold fart from the northeast.

I’m not sure the boreal summer AO signals the same thing about the system state it did 20 years ago. I’d only utilize such correlative methods under very specific circumstances.

[StormchaserChuck1]

48 minutes ago, Phil said:

I’m not sure the boreal summer AO signals the same thing about the system state it did 20 years ago. I’d only utilize such correlative methods under very specific circumstances.

Hmm.. yeah it does. The statistics show enough of a year-to-year consistency to hold relevance. An example is that this time last year we were seeing big cold 500mb +AO and it did turn out to be more like that in the roll forward than not (even when last year is not included in the plot). 

You kind of take these stances about having "new" and "right" information, but the Earth system has not fluctuated more than 0.1 from warm to cold season over the time (going back to 1948). It doesn't make sense in relation to my numbers. 

[DeepFriedEgg]

44 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

6z continued this trend. 0z Euro was also notably cooler and had this by day 10.

Crazy… still haven’t had a heatwave yet this year! Doesn’t look like that changes through mid July.

[Front Ranger]

26 minutes ago, DeepFriedEgg said:

Crazy… still haven’t had a heatwave yet this year! Doesn’t look like that changes through mid July.

Yeah, most Portland area stations including PDX have been able to narrowly avoid the three 90+ days in a row standard. SLE has done it, though.

For SEA, I'd say three 85+ in a row qualifies, and that's also been avoided. Same for OLM. 

So basically, nothing extreme or long-lasting in the heat department so far, and latest model trends seem to be moving away from that for first half of July.

[Phil]

1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

Hmm.. yeah it does. The statistics show enough of a year-to-year consistency to hold relevance. An example is that this time last year we were seeing big cold 500mb +AO and it did turn out to be more like that in the roll forward than not (even when last year is not included in the plot). 

You kind of take these stances about having "new" and "right" information, but the Earth system has not fluctuated more than 0.1 from warm to cold season over the time (going back to 1948). It doesn't make sense in relation to my numbers. 

Considering you have a multitude of years with +1SD +AO in JAS followed by diametrically opposed long wave patterns during DJF, yes, I’d say the signal is state dependent.

Unless the correlation is statistically significant (and consistently over time) it’s not worth much from a predictive standpoint IMO.

[StormchaserChuck1]

11 minutes ago, Phil said:

Considering you have a multitude of years with +1SD +AO in JAS followed by diametrically opposed long wave patterns during DJF, yes, I’d say the signal is state dependent.

Unless the correlation is statistically significant (and consistently over time) it’s not worth much from a predictive standpoint IMO.

The AO is extreme this July, and has been in May and June. That makes it a top analog, when compared to the base. So the static of other things is a little less than if it was "+0.5" or "+1". Beyond then these correlation maps that I quote use 73 years, or 876 months, of data. That is statistically significant when you have signals >0.3 for the whole dataset combined. Recent stuff in recent years does make recent things more valid, but not that much has changed from the base period, going back to the 1940s.. In fact, that a strong +AO is occurring in mid-Summer is counter-intuitive to the global warming. There really shouldn't be cold 500mb anywhere, and that is what we saw 2020-2023. The last 2 years something changed, and we are getting cold, sustained anomalies in the Summer. These are actually closest to the 1980s and 1990s.  It's giving me like 58% probability that the NW will be cold in the Jan-March or Feb-March average. That's a fine datapoint, imo. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

Changes in ENSO subsurface over the last 2 months. 

[iFred]

Seems like fire season in the Cascades kicked off. Pomas Fire up by Lake Chelan has blown up while the White Pine Fire off of US2 may have been sparked by transmission lines.

[Number1AIFSfan]

Considering taking a sweet job in Everett, but I'm genuinely hesitating because I don't want to move off the Ridge and give up my microclimate, lol. The commute would be hell during rush hour, even with a self driving car.

What do y'all think is the best area for snow within an hour of Everett during rush hour? Was thinking about maybe somewhere up north by Mossman. Or even around Lake Samish or Sudden Valley on Lake Whatcomb (I know that would be an hour drive still, but I've always wanted to live near Bellingham)

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

6z continued this trend. 0z Euro was also notably cooler and had this by day 10.

OP runs change so drastically run to run, basically pointless to look at past a few days right now. Not sure why they are struggling so much. 12z GFS and GEM hot and dry thru 10 days. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, Number1AIFSfan said:

Considering taking a sweet job in Everett, but I'm genuinely hesitating because I don't want to move off the Ridge and give up my microclimate, lol. The commute would be hell during rush hour, even with a self driving car.

What do y'all think is the best area for snow within an hour of Everett during rush hour? Was thinking about maybe somewhere up north by Mossman. Or even around Lake Samish (I know that would be an hour drive still, but I've always wanted to live near Bellingham)

Might take YEARS to accumulate 15" of snow in Everett. 

[TT-SEA]

1 hour ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

OP runs change so drastically run to run, basically pointless to look at past a few days right now. Not sure why they are struggling so much. 12z GFS and GEM hot and dry thru 10 days. 

Yeah... 12Z ECMWF look much less crazy with the troughing than its 00Z run.  

[TT-SEA]

Clearing out here before noon... won't be much in the way of low clouds this weekend but good chance of high clouds sneaking in from the east tomorrow and then basically sunny from start to finish on Saturday and Sunday.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Morning clouds have burned off and it’s a beautiful day! Low 70s so far.

[Front Ranger]

3 hours ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

OP runs change so drastically run to run, basically pointless to look at past a few days right now. Not sure why they are struggling so much. 12z GFS and GEM hot and dry thru 10 days.