July 2025 PNW Weather

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Decent model consensus on some rain chances next week.  By then it will be pushing 6 weeks without rain here, unlikely that continues too much longer.  

Second week of August is the least likely week of the year for it to rain. Would be nice to see some. 

[TT-SEA]

56 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Decent model consensus on some rain chances next week.  By then it will be pushing 6 weeks without rain here, unlikely that continues too much longer.  

12Z ECMWF shows multiple rain chances starting around day 7.

[TT-SEA]

But the ECMWF is still pretty warm...

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

5 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows multiple rain chances starting around day 7.

This would be a blessing. 

[GobBluth]

It will be impressive if we get to the 90s with high clouds.

[NWbyNW]

Sure wish we had some rain... 

Currently 68F at about 12:20am.  Much cooler than yesterday at the same time.

[Phishy Wx]

Currently 90.  Hot AF, headed to 98 supposedly.

still no triple digit official highs yet this summer, usually get at least 1 or 2, usually more

there's still August though

 

[ClarkCountyChill]

2 minutes ago, Phishy Wx said:

Currently 90.  Hot AF, headed to 98 supposedly.

still no triple digit official highs yet this summer, usually get at least 1 or 2, usually more

there's still August though

 

I think August should end up the hottest month of the summer, anomaly wise. Mid-August and onward is gonna cook.

[ShawniganLake]

42 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

12Z ECMWF shows multiple rain chances starting around day 7.

If Phil’s late summer and early fall ridging is going to pan out, it would make sense that we see some type of showery pattern reset

[Meatyorologist]

5 hours ago, BLI snowman said:

This decade has been exceptionally blah for warm core activity. Last year did give us the two summer events at least, but we haven't had a really high end light show yet this decade. 

Possibly correlates to our summers going off a cliff but it may also just be some bad luck, since even the warmest years in the past (1958) occasionally produced some nice setups. With such a relatively small sample size of events to begin with, I think it might just be a bit of happenstance. Obviously the big maxi-ridge drydown of our warm season doesn't help. 

 

I agree that there's no trend. Not enough sample size

[Tanis Leach]

8 hours ago, Meatyorologist said:

Wow that fell apart fast. Models barely have a cohesive impulse now. Not going to get an EML overhead with that, so even if we do get easterlies, precip should evaporate right off the mountain.

It's been an extremely boring stretch of Seattle weather for a few years now

If you aren't counting March 26th lightning up there, when would you consider the last big event up there?

[fubario]

what follows the "brown grass" stage if it doesn't rain for another 2 months? asking for me

[Anti Marine Layer]

5 minutes ago, fubario said:

what follows the "brown grass" stage if it doesn't rain for another 2 months? asking for me

The fire and ashes stage.

[BLI snowman]

1 hour ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

I think August should end up the hottest month of the summer, anomaly wise. Mid-August and onward is gonna cook.

That's my suspicion now as well.

The weenie in me does think that it could be a year with a timely fall that hits us in more classic fashion kind of all at once in mid-September. Especially if the Nina attempt gets its act together a bit.

But I think it'll be a rough few weeks to get there. Once the little trough finally ejects out of the picture in probably the 2nd week of August, I suspect things will take off pretty dramatically. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

23 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's my suspicion now as well.

The weenie in me does think that it could be a year with a timely fall that hits us in more classic fashion kind of all at once in mid-September. Especially if the Nina attempt gets its act together a bit.

But I think it'll be a rough few weeks to get there. Once the little trough finally ejects out of the picture in probably the 2nd week of August, I suspect things will take off pretty dramatically. 

An “early” start to fall would be nice. But yeah, I feel like late August into early September could be pretty rough. Portland/Vancouver have dodged even having more than two 90s in a row so far this summer, so I feel a price will be paid for that at very least.

Also will have been in a general western troughing state for about 3-4 weeks by the time mid-August rolls around. A shame that all that seems to mean these days is temps in the +2 range as opposed to +4-5, and spotty rainfall here and there without any sort of regional soaking or wet convective outbreak. It has been nice to burn through the dog days of summer without much in the way of high end torching, I suppose.

[Front Ranger]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

That's my suspicion now as well.

The weenie in me does think that it could be a year with a timely fall that hits us in more classic fashion kind of all at once in mid-September. Especially if the Nina attempt gets its act together a bit.

But I think it'll be a rough few weeks to get there. Once the little trough finally ejects out of the picture in probably the 2nd week of August, I suspect things will take off pretty dramatically. 

Justin predicting dramatic summer warmth? Truly a shocker.

[ClarkCountyChill]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Justin predicting dramatic summer warmth? Truly a shocker.

Flatiron downplaying any and all actual, verified warmth? Bigger shocker.

This summer should easily end up warmer than 2016, 2019 and 2020. All post-regime change

[TT-SEA]

81 at SEA... 85 in NB.

High clouds beginning to approach from the SE per the satellite.    Possibly leading to some convection early tomorrow morning.

[TT-SEA]

Pre 8:45 sunset now. 

[Front Ranger]

48 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Flatiron downplaying any and all actual, verified warmth? Bigger shocker.

This summer should easily end up warmer than 2016, 2019 and 2020. All post-regime change

I don't know if there's been a "regime change" happening. But I'm open to that idea, given it's happened many times before. 

People who ACTUALLY LIVE THERE have noted some of the same differences this summer that I have. And others have said they're open to the idea that the next 10 summers could mark a step back in warmth from the last ten.

Meanwhile, musings/doomposts about June 2021 reduxes, top 5 hot months, endless warmth, etc have fallen flat.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't know if there's been a "regime change" happening. But I'm open to that idea, given it's happened many times before. 

People who ACTUALLY LIVE THERE have noted some of the same differences this summer that I have. And others have said they're open to the idea that the next 10 summers could mark a step back in warmth from the last ten.

Meanwhile, musings/doomposts about June 2021 reduxes, top 5 hot months, endless warmth, etc have fallen flat.

To be fair, there has been a gradient. I seem to be only one of a few with cool temps. East has been hot, South has been hot. Everyone is dry. 

[Front Ranger]

51 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

This summer should easily end up warmer than 2016, 2019 and 2020. All post-regime change

Even if this ends up being the case, all three of those summers had heatwaves by this point that topped anything seen so far this summer, as well as all 3 having having heatwaves later that also topped what this summer has produced.

[ClarkCountyChill]

1 hour ago, Front Ranger said:

I don't know if there's been a "regime change" happening. But I'm open to that idea, given it's happened many times before. 

People who ACTUALLY LIVE THERE have noted some of the same differences this summer that I have. And others have said they're open to the idea that the next 10 summers could mark a step back in warmth from the last ten.

Meanwhile, musings/doomposts about June 2021 reduxes, top 5 hot months, endless warmth, etc have fallen flat.

The only poster who seemed to be making a big deal about how different this summer is couldn’t even remember much about the (cooler) Summer of 2020, by his own admission.

As for the last paragraph. Okie dokie. What exactly is your point then. That the last 12 summers haven’t been warm? That this summer running a +2 to date as opposed to a +4 means that global warming isn’t all that bad and is actually mostly natural cycles? I truly am curious what sort of grand thesis you have here aside from “Hey, did you ever stop to think each summer might not be warmer than the next one forever?” Said no one.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

To be fair, there has been a gradient. I seem to be only one of a few with cool temps. East has been hot, South has been hot. Everyone is dry. 

But the lack of extreme or persistent heat applies across the board. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

2 minutes ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

The only poster who seemed to be making a big deal about how different this summer is couldn’t even remember much about the (cooler) Summer of 2020, by his own admission.

As for the last paragraph. Okie dokie. What exactly is your point then. That the last 12 summers haven’t been warm? That this summer running a +2 to date as opposed to a +4 means that global warming isn’t all that bad and is actually mostly natural cycles? I truly am curious what sort of grand thesis you have here aside from “Hey, did you ever stop to think each summer might not be warmer than the next one forever?” Said no one.

There has actually been an ideal NE Pacific High pressure all Summer so far. In Summers of the past, you guys would be -1F for the Summer right now, with the same general pacific pattern. 

[ClarkCountyChill]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

There has actually been an ideal NE Pacific High pressure all Summer so far. In Winters of the past, you guys would be -1F for the Summer right now, with the same general pacific pattern. 

Uhhhh….is this like a botched Yogi Berra quote.

Also, the fact that we can’t even hit average anomalies with things so “favorable” for us kind of says it all in terms of how much our summer climate is warming, and continues to warm.

[StormchaserChuck1]

1 minute ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Uhhhh….is this like a botched Yogi Berra quote.

In January's of the past, you guys would have snowfall for July

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

The only poster who seemed to be making a big deal about how different this summer is couldn’t even remember much about the (cooler) Summer of 2020, by his own admission.

As for the last paragraph. Okie dokie. What exactly is your point then. That the last 12 summers haven’t been warm? That this summer running a +2 to date as opposed to a +4 means that global warming isn’t all that bad and is actually mostly natural cycles? I truly am curious what sort of grand thesis you have here aside from “Hey, did you ever stop to think each summer might not be warmer than the next one forever?” Said no one.

1. No, others have noted the lack of major heat as well.

2. The main point is simply that all the doomposting or assuming things are just going to continue status quo or get hotter in the short term is probably overdone.

3. I didn't say anything about global warming - which is still occurring, of course. 

4. Most of western WA is closer to +1 for the summer.

[Front Ranger]

13 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

There has actually been an ideal NE Pacific High pressure all Summer so far. In Summers of the past, you guys would be -1F for the Summer right now, with the same general pacific pattern. 

Not so sure about that. I'd call this more of a compromise pattern, not one ideal for cool summer weather in the PNW. Still above normal heights, actually. July map isn't out yet, of course.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not so sure about that. I'd call this more of a compromise pattern, not one ideal for cool summer weather in the PNW. Still above normal heights, actually. July map isn't out yet, of course.

 

Usually a High centered that far off the west coast gives you slightly below average temps for the Summer.. make an analog composite with that dominant anomaly. My guess is the +AO has kept the mid latitudes in general warmer. But it could just be the Summer drought pattern extending north up the west coast in recent years as the jet stream has shifted north in the warm season, kind of independent of surrounding patterns. 

[Meatyorologist]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

1. No, others have noted the lack of major heat as well.

2. The main point is simply that all the doomposting or assuming things are just going to continue status quo or get hotter in the short term is probably overdone.

3. I didn't say anything about global warming - which is still occurring, of course. 

4. Most of western WA is closer to +1 for the summer.

It's pretty funny how you spit what you read right back into people's faces. Jesse just pointed out that no one is saying summers will warm into perpetuity year after year. Then, in the reply to that post, you immediately revert to pretending that claim is being made, followed by dismissing said pretend claim.

It's pretty obvious what you're doing here.

[Meatyorologist]

Global warming is real and will continue. Sorry guys.

[Front Ranger]

4 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Not so sure about that. I'd call this more of a compromise pattern, not one ideal for cool summer weather in the PNW. Still above normal heights, actually. July map isn't out yet, of course.

 

Compared to say, June 2022, which had an easily more favorable upper level pattern for cool weather in the PNW.

 

As opposed to July/August the last decade.

[Meatyorologist]

Fresno is doing cool things this July...

[DeepFriedEgg]

1 hour ago, ClarkCountyChill said:

Flatiron downplaying any and all actual, verified warmth? Bigger shocker.

This summer should easily end up warmer than 2016, 2019 and 2020. All post-regime change

But still unprecedented in the post-2020 regime

[Front Ranger]

3 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

It's pretty funny how you spit what you read right back into people's faces. Jesse just pointed out that no one is saying summers will warm into perpetuity year after year. Then, in the reply to that post, you immediately revert to pretending that claim is being made, followed by dismissing said pretend claim.

It's pretty obvious what you're doing here.

You are distorting this. I'm not saying anyone is claiming every summer will be warmer than the last. But the claim absolutely has been made that the last 10 years represent a new climate normal that is only going get worse from here.

I don't make stuff up, you should know that by now.

[Meatyorologist]

No narrative, this is just awesome to see in a region plagued with hot summers all century.

[Front Ranger]

12 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

3. I didn't say anything about global warming - which is still occurring, of course. 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Global warming is real and will continue. Sorry guys.

Hey look, we agree. Or what am I actually doing here??

Short term climate trends at the regional level are distinct from global temperature trends. Obviously, one overlays the other. Not sure why this is so often misrepresented on here.

[NorthBend RainEnthusiast]

Just now, Meatyorologist said:

It's pretty funny how you spit what you read right back into people's faces. Jesse just pointed out that no one is saying summers will warm into perpetuity year after year. Then, in the reply to that post, you immediately revert to pretending that claim is being made, followed by dismissing said pretend claim.

It's pretty obvious what you're doing here.

This summer has been quite dry and warmer than average. I suppose I'll take that over quite dry and much warmer than average. Not sure that's worth spiking the football over.

Just finally caved and cancelled my campsite on the south end of Lake Cushman for this weekend, that fire situation is in no way improving. I suppose I'll place my hopes on the always-vanishing minimal amounts of rain that some models are showing for the driest time of the year. 

[Tyler Mode]

Couldn't resist a short hike this AM.  Did Swan Lake yesterday and heard thunder for about 1.5 hours during that hike.