July 2025 PNW Weather

[ClarkCountyChill]

1 minute ago, Tyler Mode said:

Couldn't resist a short hike this AM.  Did Swan Lake yesterday and heard thunder for about 1.5 hours during that hike.

Great shot of Mount Shasta.

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

4 minutes ago, Tyler Mode said:

Couldn't resist a short hike this AM.  Did Swan Lake yesterday and heard thunder for about 1.5 hours during that hike.

Really cool shot.

[Phishy Wx]

2 hours ago, fubario said:

what follows the "brown grass" stage if it doesn't rain for another 2 months? asking for me

ash to ashes, dust to dust

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

7 minutes ago, NorthBend RainEnthusiast said:

This summer has been quite dry and warmer than average. I suppose I'll take that over quite dry and much warmer than average. Not sure that's worth spiking the football over.

Just finally caved and cancelled my campsite on the south end of Lake Cushman for this weekend, that fire situation is in no way improving. I suppose I'll place my hopes on the always-vanishing minimal amounts of rain that some models are showing for the driest time of the year. 

Super bummer, it is a really cool area. 

[Phishy Wx]

18 minutes ago, Meatyorologist said:

Fresno is doing cool things this July...

any anal logs??!!

[Phishy Wx]

currently 94

[StormchaserChuck1]

21 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

Compared to say, June 2022, which had an easily more favorable upper level pattern for cool weather in the PNW.

As opposed to July/August the last decade.

They've all been warm this last decade relative to the N. Pacific pattern, that's the point. Pacific High pressure has been a bit more favorable for cool anomalies this year though, happening NW of your composite.. but plot them back to 1948, and the pattern where the latitude/longitude coordinates have the dominant high pressure come out at about -1F. 

[Tyler Mode]

Yesterday at Sheep Lake and on the way back.  It was producing a lot of lightning but also very heavy rain.

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

They've all been warm this last decade relative to the N. Pacific pattern, that's the point. Pacific High pressure has been a bit more favorable for cool anomalies this year though, happening NW of your composite.. but plot them back to 1948, and the pattern where the latitude/longitude coordinates have the dominant high pressure come out at about -1F. 

June 2022 wasn't warm. About a degree below normal at SEA, which makes sense given the upper level pattern.

I agree that the Pacific has been a bit more favorable compared to recent summers, which is why the PNW has only been mild, not roasting. But overall, heights have been above normal, so I don't think it makes sense to say this pattern should have produced negative anomalies/cool summer for the PNW. It almost always takes below normal heights over the PNW or just off the coast to produce cool summer anomalies.

If this pattern happened in 2025, it would absolutely produce a significantly below normal July across the PNW.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

Fairly good agreement on the 12z cmc, euro and the 18z gfs on some decent by mid August standards rainfalls. Hopefully still looks good in a week from now. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

25 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

June 2022 wasn't warm. About a degree below normal at SEA, which makes sense given the upper level pattern.

I agree that the Pacific has been a bit more favorable compared to recent summers, which is why the PNW has only been mild, not roasting. But overall, heights have been above normal, so I don't think it makes sense to say this pattern should have produced negative anomalies/cool summer for the PNW. It almost always takes below normal heights over the PNW or just off the coast to produce cool summer anomalies.

If this pattern happened in 2025, it would absolutely produce a significantly below normal July across the PNW.

An elongated ridge isn't always the constant. A high pressure center rotates winds counter-clockwise. Here's the top 20 analogs I came up with

I don't disagree that there are sometimes a month of a year where the pattern is favorable for below average, but in the warm season that seems to be more of an anomaly in the relative to N. Pacific pattern. 

[ShawniganLake]

This July will likely end up warmer than 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, 2023 near here at the North Cowichan station.  Probably very close to but just shy of July 2022. Not exactly a big shift from what we’ve seen the past decade or so. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

^^Anyway, here's what the analogs have for September

[BLI snowman]

2 hours ago, Front Ranger said:

Justin predicting dramatic summer warmth? Truly a shocker.

Alas, these are warm times we are living in Flatty. 

But we'll always have August 1968. A flashback to the cooler, wetter, druggier days of yore. Pay no mind to the 96 on the 1st. That wickedness actually fell on the last day of July.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

GFS ensembles have been showing a good sized West coast ridge towards the middle of August. 18z OP GFS is extreme, but there is an above average signal at least for mid-August

[TT-SEA]

19 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Alas, these are warm times we are living in Flatty. 

But we'll always have August 1968. A flashback to the cooler, wetter, druggier days of yore. Pay no mind to the 96 on the 1st. That wickedness actually fell on the last day of July.

 

I love that a high of almost 90 on 8/10 pulled off a below normal day.

[BLI snowman]

19 minutes ago, TT-SEA said:

I love that a high of almost 90 on 8/10 pulled off a below normal day.

Yeah those averages for that particular station are a little wonky. I think that's comparing it to the 1991-2020 baseline for Pearson Field which is about 6 miles away basically on the river and has far warmer lows than the COOP station that you see here on the northern outskirts of Vancouver. So not quite an apples to apples thing unfortunately.

 

[iFred]

1 hour ago, Meatyorologist said:

Global warming is real and will continue. Sorry guys.

If you and Justin take up Global Cooling then maybe Flatiron will look into the possibility that it may be warming. This is how nature balances things out.

[Front Ranger]

46 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Alas, these are warm times we are living in Flatty. 

But we'll always have August 1968. A flashback to the cooler, wetter, druggier days of yore. Pay no mind to the 96 on the 1st. That wickedness actually fell on the last day of July.

 

What does the wettest August on record have to do with anything lol?

Interestingly enough, that August was preceded by one with no rain, followed by one with .04", and then another completely dry one.

[DeepFriedEgg]

Earth-shattering underperformance at PDX today.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, iFred said:

If you and Justin take up Global Cooling then maybe Flatiron will look into the possibility that it may be warming. This is how nature balances things out.

Meaty incessantly insinuates that I'm a global warming denier, despite zero statements from me stating that and many stating the opposite. Apparently I'm in denial of my denial.

[ShawniganLake]

Lytton is 100F with a dew point of 32F. 9% humidity with a south wind gusting to 25mph.  Pretty nasty fire weather. 

[BLI snowman]

13 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

What does the wettest August on record have to do with anything lol?

Interestingly enough, that August was preceded by one with no rain, followed by one with .04", and then another completely dry one.

Awww. The drastically cooler summers back then do seem a little threatening indeed.

[BLI snowman]

4 minutes ago, ShawniganLake said:

Lytton is 100F with a dew point of 32F. 9% humidity with a south wind gusting to 25mph.  Pretty nasty fire weather. 

Good thing there's not much left to burn around there.

[Front Ranger]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Awww. The drastically cooler summers back then do seem a little threatening indeed.

Of course summers were cooler. But what does a massive outlier month even for that time prove?

[MV_snow]

1 hour ago, BLI snowman said:

Alas, these are warm times we are living in Flatty. 

But we'll always have August 1968. A flashback to the cooler, wetter, druggier days of yore. Pay no mind to the 96 on the 1st. That wickedness actually fell on the last day of July.

 

Wow, 3” of rain over 3 days in mid-late August, all sub-70 highs, including an incredible high of 61. They don’t make them like they used to. Would certainly get the CA transplants out of the area.

[BLI snowman]

1 minute ago, Front Ranger said:

Of course summers were cooler. But what does a massive outlier month even for that time prove?

Hey look, I get it. I know it's a bit jarring when confronted head-on with the reality of our old summers. Just gotta appreciate it and move on.

[MV_snow]

EPS isn’t exactly bullish on below normal heights after mid next week. Hope we can get some precip before Phil’s mid-August death ridge shows up.

[MV_snow]

1 minute ago, BLI snowman said:

Hey look, I get it. I know it's a bit jarring when confronted head-on with the reality of our old summers. Just gotta appreciate it and move on.

Another July 1993 would send Tim straight to Pasco on a one way ticket. I just can’t conceive of another summer month like that ever happening again. 

[Front Ranger]

2 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Hey look, I get it. I know it's a bit jarring when confronted head-on with the reality of our old summers. Just gotta appreciate it and move on.

And yet OLM's hottest August remains 1967 and hottest July is 1958.

Both are about as representative of the summer climate then as August 1968.

[ClarkCountyChill]

I sense an 8:12pm high of 90 in the cards for PDX.

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

We must be getting smoke from the Olympics right now. Smells like an ashtray and is hazy here on the KP. 

[BLI snowman]

3 minutes ago, Front Ranger said:

And yet OLM's hottest August remains 1967 and hottest July is 1958.

Both are about as representative of the summer climate then as August 1968.

Hmm, you don't have to search very hard to find summer months back then that were quite impressively wet and/or cool compared to anything we've seen recently. I think it's because the climate was a lot colder.

Check out that rainy stretch in early August 1962 at OLM! RIP Marilyn Monroe.

 

That's just a few months removed from a very frosty and 70s-less May! Brrr!

 

[MossMan]

Just letting everyone know I survived the tsunami last night at 550’ and all is well. 
 

Also I heard a rumor that Andrew is back and he is being a real DiplowManOfTheHour? 

[TT-SEA]

29 minutes ago, MV_snow said:

Another July 1993 would send Tim straight to Pasco on a one way ticket. I just can’t conceive of another summer month like that ever happening again. 

Definitely would travel... maybe Chelan.   Maybe spend a month in Minnesota.  That July seems like it was truly depressing.  I have never been in Pasco except on the freeway.  

But one rainy summer month is not the end of the world.  Certainly wouldn't make me move to Pasco.  There are much, much nicer warm places out there!

[ShawniganLake]

34 minutes ago, BLI snowman said:

Good thing there's not much left to burn around there.

There is a 1200acre fire about 6 miles south of town currently but I hear it’s burning into an old burn scar.  That area has been threatened by fire 6 times in the last 5 years or something ridiculous.  I’ll be driving through there tomorrow night or Friday morning.  

[MossMan]

That’s not good. 

[KeyPeninsula_Wx]

8 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That’s not good. 

I’d imagine that’s where the smokes coming from. We haven’t had any low level smoke from the fire here so far this year but I think the wind is right currently. 

[Port Angeles Foothiller]

17 minutes ago, MossMan said:

That’s not good. 

It is bad. 

[TT-SEA]

5 minutes ago, Port Angeles Foothiller said:

It is bad. 

This is the type of fire that will burn off and on until October or November.

Bear Gulch and Hamma Fire: Update July 30: Significant Increase in Bear Gulch Fire Activity  - ThurstonTalk

Fire Behavior: The Bear Gulch Fire is expected to be more active today with warmer and drier conditions. Due to the fire’s spread into steep, rugged terrain, the heavy fuels it’s burning in, and extremely dry conditions, the fire will continue to burn into the Daniel J. Evans and Mount Skokomish Wilderness areas until it is extinguished by repeated rain and snow in the fall. It is expected to vary in intensity, spread and duration with fire activity, fuels, and weather.