Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[Black Hole]

It is time to kick off a new thread for fall/winter discussion for the coming winter. We will probably be looking at a 2nd year La Nina, albeit very weak. It will be central based this time. QBO and IOD both look to be negative. PDO is raging negative, though will probably be coming up some into fall and winter. I am not big on solar, but it's near max or slightly descending from max. 

Share your thoughts on this thread!

[Black Hole]

One thing I like to look at every year for predictability is the spring pattern and even back to the last 18 months for low frequency stuff. Here are the last few years. Although it's never the same, quite often the spring pattern gives hints about the pattern for the coming winter. 

For example notice how similar the spring and following winter patterns were. It really set the stage. Last year wasn't quite as good a match, but you could already see hints of the ridging southwest of Greenland and the stage was set for AK amplification. 

This year we have totally reversed what we had going into 23-24 in most respects. But even compared to last year it's pretty different with widespread troughing in eastern Canada and a east coast ridge. The Pacific is unchanged. If I were to roll forward the spring pattern it seems like we will again have an Alaskan ridge but maybe a bit further west. The changes in Canada can't be ignored, perhaps a different blocking regime up there this year. 

 

 

[Black Hole]

Here is your reminder that the EPS weeklies struggle to see cold ahead of time. The weeklies forecast for two weeks ago vs now to close out August (and its still probably too warm)

 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

Shouldn't this be 2025-26?

Anyways, I really can't consider last year as a la nina. We had an el nino state in Nino 1+2. Last year was an ENSO neutral, albeit in a non-traditional sense. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is just something you rarely ever see.

I don't see this high of a variance this year. 1+2 should be in ENSO neutral, and 3.4 should cold be neutral/weak la nina.

[Black Hole]

Fixed that. I am tired. 

[Black Hole]

38 minutes ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

Shouldn't this be 2025-26?

Anyways, I really can't consider last year as a la nina. We had an el nino state in Nino 1+2. Last year was an ENSO neutral, albeit in a non-traditional sense. A la nina in 3.4 and an el nino in 1+2 is just something you rarely ever see.

I don't see this high of a variance this year. 1+2 should be in ENSO neutral, and 3.4 should cold be neutral/weak la nina.

Those are fair points. I think I agree with the general idea that ENSO will not be a huge player this year. It seems like whatever is driving the Pacific will continue to dominate with another year of big Pacific blocking. If my theory is correct about less ridging in SE Canada it could open the NE up to more action than the last few years. 

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is your reminder that the EPS weeklies struggle to see cold ahead of time. The weeklies forecast for two weeks ago vs now to close out August (and its still probably too warm)

 

Interestingly, the Euro AI was spot on to this cooler outbreak while the EPS had zero clue.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

12 hours ago, Black Hole said:

It is time to kick off a new thread for fall/winter discussion for the coming winter. We will probably be looking at a 2nd year La Nina, albeit very weak. It will be central based this time. QBO and IOD both look to be negative. PDO is raging negative, though will probably be coming up some into fall and winter. I am not big on solar, but it's near max or slightly descending from max. 

Share your thoughts on this thread!

Solar Max 0 to +4 years supports +NAO conditions at +0.2 correlation (55% of the time)

Ever since the 23-24 Strong El Nino, we have not had massive N. Pacific -PNA patterns, like we had before that. It would be surprising to me if we see +80-100dm N. Pacific H5 for the Winter like some of the seasonal models have. 

La Nina was looking like it would come on strong a few weeks ago, with -5c subsurface readings.. now it's waning. Today's SOI was -18 (the lowest in a while), possibly putting us on pace to end the 10-month +SOI streak in August. With that, the subsurface has moderated to only -2 to -3 max subsurface anomalies. We could be Weak La Nina this year per RONI (relative ENSO to global warming), but I don't think it's going to completely overwhelm the pattern. 

PDO is so negative.. and its top correlation month of the year is October. If October has a +EPO pattern, I would expect warmer conditions this Winter, but a colder Winter would also start to show its hand in the north Pacific in October. Last year the PDO was lowest monthly reading on record to that time in October, at -3.81, and we had mostly +PNA conditions the following Winter. I was just looking back and I found that when the Fall PDO didn't work out for the Winter one year (last year), it worked the following year at 1.24x average. 

I think a close analog to this coming Winter is last year, actually. QBO was different, but that's just a Stratosphere index, and the Stratosphere doesn't translate to cold/warm surface as much as people think. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

13 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Here is your reminder that the EPS weeklies struggle to see cold ahead of time. The weeklies forecast for two weeks ago vs now to close out August (and its still probably too warm)

This is what we're looking at currently - pretty major bust.

Is the Euro AI scoring high on predictability? I know it upgraded a few months ago. 

[Andie]

I’ve never placed a lot of stock in Farmers Almanac.   
Some measuring the length of the hair on his horses neck or how thick the hairs are on his cattle don’t get me worked up. But just for old times sake- here’s FA’s latest prognostication.  

[Hoosier]

I don't know if I've ever seen the Farmer's Almanac go with a widespread warmer than average winter in the CONUS.  

[james1976]

On 8/19/2025 at 9:23 PM, Andie said:

I’ve never placed a lot of stock in Farmers Almanac.   
Some measuring the length of the hair on his horses neck or how thick the hairs are on his cattle don’t get me worked up. But just for old times sake- here’s FA’s latest prognostication.  

I was coming in to post this haha. Yeah i dont count on this happening but still fun to look at. Last couple winters have been lame up here. We're due!

[Hoosier]

You'd think that somebody somewhere will end up cooler than average next month.

 

[StormchaserChuck1]

-PDO has a pretty high correlation with warm Fall for CONUS

[PhiEaglesfan712]

11 hours ago, Hoosier said:

You'd think that somebody somewhere will end up cooler than average next month.

 

I don't know about that. Most of the East (outside of Florida) looks cold to begin September.

[SE Nebraska wx]

Not gonna expect much this winter. Probably will be above normal with temps with less than 10 inches of snow. Par the course since 2021 here. PDO at -4 is the last thing I want to see. 

[Hoosier]

Fun fact for Chicago... you have to go back to December 2016 to find the last time that it was colder AND snowier than average in December.

It's time to break that this year (unless, of course, it's not).

[Tom]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Fun fact for Chicago... you have to go back to December 2016 to find the last time that it was colder AND snowier than average in December.

It's time to break that this year (unless, of course, it's not).

I'm starting to see and hear some conservative mets already getting pretty stoked about a faster start to Winter that has some legs for the lakes region and the Midwest.  Let's reverse the course for Chitown...got an itch to track some Blitz storms this year!

Edit: My call is that @jaster220 will be buried this year and won't see grass till April!  LOL

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm starting to see and hear some conservative mets already getting pretty stoked about a faster start to Winter that has some legs for the lakes region and the Midwest.  Let's reverse the course for Chitown...got an itch to track some Blitz storms this year!

Edit: My call is that @jaster220 will be buried this year and won't see grass till April!  LOL

There are some decent signs at this early stage at least as far as what some general tendencies should be, but snowfall is a tricky beast to predict.  Whether it's this winter or whenever, the next time there's even an average winter in terms of snowfall will feel quite snowy for Chicagoland given how the last few years have been.

[Tom]

53 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

There are some decent signs at this early stage at least as far as what some general tendencies should be, but snowfall is a tricky beast to predict.  Whether it's this winter or whenever, the next time there's even an average winter in terms of snowfall will feel quite snowy for Chicagoland given how the last few years have been.

Aside from the brutal cold that I felt last Jan/Feb, I want to supersede the memory of seeing brown frozen ground with a pile white gold instead!

[Black Hole]

Certainly this fall is getting off to an early and great start. We are seeing a tendency for +PNA over the next couple of weeks with cold dumping into the central US. That isn't something we've seen a lot of in September for a number of years. Obviously we don't know for sure if or how that will translate into winter, but I am feeling relatively optimistic. 

[jaster220]

On 8/24/2025 at 10:08 AM, Tom said:

I'm starting to see and hear some conservative mets already getting pretty stoked about a faster start to Winter that has some legs for the lakes region and the Midwest.  Let's reverse the course for Chitown...got an itch to track some Blitz storms this year!

Edit: My call is that @jaster220 will be buried this year and won't see grass till April!  LOL

Not sure if I should be thrilled or just call "earliest clickbait ever" on your Edit 

18-19 was the last "big winter" for Harrison. No ongoing data in the last 4 decades but based on surrounding sites and APX's seasonal totals map Harrison likely scored 75-80" and I remember traversing the area at least once during that winter and the snowpack was deep and dense. 

On a longer term I'm still scanning 65 season's worth of snow depth maps to get a feel for what to expect. From 1950-70 there were perhaps only twice in a decade that storms delivered a nice solid hit leaving 12+ depth. I will have to dig deeper on 51-52. It was an exceptional season for Gladwin 20 miles to my east where they recorded 102.5" or more than double their 48.5" average! Then there was the legendary season of 66-67 for Chicago and SMI, but Harrison sat in a little donut hole of scant snow much of that winter. It had to be super frustrating to see huge hits just south. 

[tripod]

On 8/19/2025 at 11:03 PM, Hoosier said:

I don't know if I've ever seen the Farmer's Almanac go with a widespread warmer than average winter in the CONUS.  

It would be like the NWS going with a widespread colder than average long range forecast. 

[Madtown]

All I got so far is the amount of acorns this year is ridiculous up this way, already dropping all over the place too 

[Clinton]

Here is the OLD Farmees Almanacs forecast which apparently is different from the Farmers Almanac lol.

[jaster220]

Obs here a couple hrs ago:

 

Had 39F at home, 37F on the drive in around 6:30 but apparently here in the river valley it wasn't done tanking.

[gimmesnow]

10 hours ago, Clinton said:

Here is the OLD Farmees Almanacs forecast which apparently is different from the Farmers Almanac lol.

Yeah, that's what they do. Old Almanac is opposite of the "current" almanac, then one is right and they go "wow look how right the Alamanc was!" after winter.

[jaster220]

12 hours ago, Madtown said:

All I got so far is the amount of acorns this year is ridiculous up this way, already dropping all over the place too 

Noticing that down my way as well. New in Harrison so I don't have the historical perspective to compare with in my mind but last autumn stayed warm thru November and there was a large acorn "crop".

[jaster220]

On 8/24/2025 at 11:37 AM, Tom said:

Aside from the brutal cold that I felt last Jan/Feb, I want to supersede the memory of seeing brown frozen ground with a pile white gold instead!

I was fortunate to score the back-to-back storms in Jan '24 that the warmth of Lake Michigan kinda ruined for Chicago proper. So your odds for Chicago have to be increased with the streak of duds. Like @Hoosier pointed out, a cold and snowy December will be 9 yrs ago already. Could this be the year??

[Black Hole]

Still time for things to change, but it's looking like we will end up well above the record from 2012. Certainly several years below where this one seems to be headed. Not sure how much this matters for fall/winter but here it is anyway. 

[Black Hole]

Here is the 3 month change in global SSTAs. A few interesting things:
1.) Massive increase in warmth with an absolutely boiling north Pacific. The biggest anomalies are in the west, but the biggest change is in the east.
2.) La Nina is strengthening and shifting east (less Modoki). 
3.) -IOD seems to be building in Indian Ocean.

4.) Atlantic has warmed off Africa, with cooling near Erins path. 

Here is a loop for 1 year change. Highlights:
1.) Much cooler Atlantic ocean, especially off the east coast (even accounting for Erin)

2.) La nina is broader and stronger than last near, more obvious -PMM off of Mexico

3.) Big difference across the north Pacific , especially near Alaska. 

 

Anyway, quite a few differences from last year. I am hearing some saying last year is a top analog, and its not bad, but with so many ocean differences we should assume it will be somewhat different. 

[Tom]

Weather Bell's 1st take on the Winter's Temps...

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies want to develop a GOA low mid September through October. On the off hand it knows what it is doing that would erode a lot of the warm water in the NE Pacific. As the ridge periodically wobbles west the weeklies drop a few cooler airmasses into the central part of the country. 

 

This may be a reasonable take. 

[jaster220]

19 hours ago, Tom said:

Weather Bell's 1st take on the Winter's Temps...

Not thrilled to be "chilled" to that level up here LOL but seriously, we need a storm track to go with or I'll be spending another winter watching the LES Belts cash-in while Harrison rides the bench..

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Not thrilled to be "chilled" to that level up here LOL but seriously, we need a storm track to go with or I'll be spending another winter watching the LES Belts cash-in while Harrison rides the bench..

My gut says we are going to have a lot of storm systems tracking up the OHV/MW and Lakes this year with a slight SER.  At this distance and without knowing what the LRC will be like, I got a hunch that there will be a bunch of snow up in the Midwest.  I got my eyes on back home in Chitown and the Mitt! 

[jaster220]

47 minutes ago, Tom said:

My gut says we are going to have a lot of storm systems tracking up the OHV/MW and Lakes this year with a slight SER.  At this distance and without knowing what the LRC will be like, I got a hunch that there will be a bunch of snow up in the Midwest.  I got my eyes on back home in Chitown and the Mitt! 

Was there any SER in 78-79? That was just about perfect for there and up here. I hope your gut is onto something - need @Hoosier to board the hype train for Chicago & The Lwr Lakes. 

[Tom]

56 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Was there any SER in 78-79? That was just about perfect for there and up here. I hope your gut is onto something - need @Hoosier to board the hype train for Chicago & The Lwr Lakes. 

I'm not sure TBH, but I know some peeps on here can pull up a historical map from that time.  I honestly think you will be in the deep freezer all winter long...you'll get close to some big storms in Late JAN/early FEB when there should be a big Thaw??  Usually, when winters start hard out of the gates, there is an inevitable pull back period (reloading)...just like there was in '13-'14 and '14-'15 if my memory serves me right.   I'm becoming a lot more enthusiastic about this coming winter for our Sub and down here in the 4 corners.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Was there any SER in 78-79? That was just about perfect for there and up here. I hope your gut is onto something - need @Hoosier to board the hype train for Chicago & The Lwr Lakes. 

You won't be seeing me board the hype train.  I'm not going to get excited for anything until it's staring me in the face.  Definitely been jaded by the past few winters.  My guess is that there will be more snow in Chicago than last winter, almost by default since last winter was so bad.  But more snow could mean 20" or 50".  

[Andie]

Even in North Texas I’m expecting some deep cold days. Perhaps some frozen stuff this year.  

[Tom]

18 hours ago, Andie said:

Even in North Texas I’m expecting some deep cold days. Perhaps some frozen stuff this year.  

-EPO will do the trick...reminiscent to the infamous years in the late 70's that had a stout trough NW of Hawaii and a NE PAC Ridge. In recent times, the back-2-back Winters from 2013-2015 showed us what the Alaska Ridge can do when the Dam breaks!