Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[jaster220]

On 9/4/2025 at 4:17 PM, Tom said:

I'm not sure TBH, but I know some peeps on here can pull up a historical map from that time.  I honestly think you will be in the deep freezer all winter long...you'll get close to some big storms in Late JAN/early FEB when there should be a big Thaw??  Usually, when winters start hard out of the gates, there is an inevitable pull back period (reloading)...just like there was in '13-'14 and '14-'15 if my memory serves me right.   I'm becoming a lot more enthusiastic about this coming winter for our Sub and down here in the 4 corners.

Started the morning here at 37F and we'd been soaked at some point overnight - everything was wet. If this is Sept 7th hate to see what lingers over the horizon 

Last winter's 3-months straight of BN chill was such a shock to me personally since it'd been 11 yrs since that duration of cold visited my 'hood and that came with historic snow! Pretty miserable sans any storms whatsoever.

As for your storm calls, did you take a pg out of a FA? It kinda reads like that, lol. 

[jaster220]

On 8/27/2025 at 9:08 AM, jaster220 said:

Noticing that down my way as well. New in Harrison so I don't have the historical perspective to compare with in my mind but last autumn stayed warm thru November and there was a large acorn "crop".

 

On 9/3/2025 at 4:52 PM, Tom said:

Weather Bell's 1st take on the Winter's Temps...

UPDATE - Boy do we have acorns! And I forget, does WxBell do a snow map in August?

[Tom]

16 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

 

UPDATE - Boy do we have acorns! And I forget, does WxBell do a snow map in August?

They might for the Premium members...I don't subscribe to Wx Bell...just took a screenshot of his post.    

[Tom]

All I gotta say is, The JMA Seasonal is showing a Wonderful Wonderful start to Winter for our SUB.  I'll dive into this a bit deeper but the data that I'm seeing is suggesting that the LRC this coming OCT/NOV will be filled with high lat blocking and then a roaring jet develops right through the center of the nation during the month of DEC.  Not only that but the La Niña looks to be basin-wide and that is a good sign to see as it typically does prevail into a colder winter overall for the U.S.  

3 - Month SST mean...it trended cooler this run overall...

 

 

OCT...some SW Ridge flavor and trough over interior W Canada with blocking  near Greenland will allow the Northern Stream to fire up.

 

Precip/Temps...Gulf of America and Caribbean look quite active....Gulf low's incoming??  My gut says we will see some "canes" in this type of pattern.  Overall, a seasonal temp regime but that might also suggest a lot of back n forth in the temp dept.  

 

NOV...Say Hello to Mr. Greenland Block!  That's an impressive blocking signal that'll certainly favor a MW/OHV storm track.

 

Temp/Precip...

 

 

DEC...This 500mb map is a thing of beauty, something that JB would admire and doodle on his weather maps in school.  I'm with him, this is quite an anomalous looking map considering many factors that are suggesting a Fast Start to Winter.  Hook that Block up Top...Lets do this!!!

 

Temp/Precip....These maps are a flavor that would make MANY members on here quite Happy!!!

 

 

[SE Nebraska wx]

IDK why but im either thinking this will be an epic winter or a complete disaster. I dont see much of a middle ground. 

[Andie]

39 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

IDK why but im either thinking this will be an epic winter or a complete disaster. I dont see much of a middle ground. 

Have you begun counting the the number of walnuts on the ground or how thick the hair is on the cattle?

In truth, I agree. We’re due.  
Texas hasn’t had snow or ice in a while.  I expect a good winter here. 

[Black Hole]

46 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

IDK why but im either thinking this will be an epic winter or a complete disaster. I dont see much of a middle ground. 

Ahh, my favorite naysayer is back!

My suspicion is a better than average winter overall for many of us but probably not all. Hard to hit everybody.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

Ahh, my favorite naysayer is back!

My suspicion is a better than average winter overall for many of us but probably not all. Hard to hit everybody.

This is a very important Disclaimer...esp, when tracking winter storms and everyone having their snow magnets out!

[Tom]

Rarely do you ever see any BN anomalies in the Euro model from the LR forecasts...so when you see these DEC & JAN model runs, it makes you wonder where the cold air will pool...

 

DEC...

JAN...

[Black Hole]

15 hours ago, Tom said:

Rarely do you ever see any BN anomalies in the Euro model from the LR forecasts...so when you see these DEC & JAN model runs, it makes you wonder where the cold air will pool...

 

DEC...

JAN...

Obviously you never know for sure, but I think we will have amplified AK ridging and polar blocking making this a winter with some good cold periods. Then it comes down to if we can favorably time some moisture or not. Typically winters like that are drier further north but not always. 

[Black Hole]

Some pretty big changes over the last 10 days in the North Pacific with the PDO clearly rising quite a bit. The warmest water is now centered just off the west coast. Some expansion of the cold water in the north Atlantic though not as big. La Nina still strengthening and becoming more of a basin wide event (still east focused). 

Some troughing this week in the GOA may make the PDO fall again, but it looks like for the last third of the month this pattern would support it rising again or at least stabilizing. Some threat of recurving typhoons could further help. 

[Tom]

For those of us who follow the LRC,  next week is one of the most important times of the year as the sun sets across the North Pole.  While this is yet to be a confirmation or proof of concept, but this may be the day the LRC sets up way up north and then begins its slow migration south into the mid lats where we live.  Having said that, what are the LR models showing us to close out SEP and open up OCT??

The JMA weeklies are no doubt doing a great job in the LR, pretty much all summer long they have been much better than the EPS and Euro Weeklies.  In any event, the Week 2-4 period looks quite good for much of our SUB in terms of moisture, tracking systems and a potent cold shot or two??  Let's rendezvous!

Week 2..Love seeing that trough in the 4 corners and blocking up on Top and also the (-AO)...we should start seeing Autumn-Like storms coming out of the Rockies during this period leading us into the Autumn Equinox. Big time of year!

 

Precip/Temp...It looks quite wet and warm...I expect a big cold front the week of the 21st...

 

Week 3-4...West Coast Ridge (Split Flow???)...weak signal for a Greenland Block but that can change as we get closer in time.  The CFSv2 isn't shy about the Blocking over eastern Canada/Greenland.

The JMA is below...

 

 

Precip/Temp...IMHO, this is a really great look to the start of the LRC....I'd like to see next weeks run to confirm a few things I'm looking into as driving patterns for the next LRC.  Nonetheless, it's a great time of year as we start seeing glimpses of what is coming down the piper!

 

[jaster220]

APX finally issued a snowfall map for last winter! The gradient is traditionally STEEP between Harrison and Gaylord (~60 to 140 inches). With the lack of notable synoptic storms and the endless cold waves generating LES, the gradient went from just below normal to +65 inches for Gaylord. The 82" at Houghton Lake shows how much better they did off the lake than here just 25 miles south. I was surprised at Grayling's 106"total. Tbh it didn't feel that big. My 100" in Marshall felt way bigger.

[Tom]

Is my vision coming into Fruition???  Not gonna lie, I do LOVE the trending looks off the CFSv2 for DEC...all we need is a bit more -NAO and most of the SUB will be reminiscing in a bountiful winter regime!  It appears to me that the NE PAC Ridge will be a dominant Force of Nature this Autum/Winter season. The question will remain, how much blocking will develop as the jet strengthens and what will happen with the Polar Vortex?  Will it be weak, strong or a lot of back n forth??  The blocking near Greenland is a key component to driving the storm track along the MW/OHV as the SER will likely be a player as well.

Let's say the Trends are our Friends, the last 20 runs for DEC...more blocking towards W Greenland would be ideal for Me and the Sub.  As it is only SEP 15th, I will say this, my gut is telling me based on old school rules and the way the pattern is showing up right now across the Southwest/4 corners region, I have a strong feeling we will have a tremendous SW Flow regime.  I am going to dig deeper later this week and analyze the N PAC pattern using the Bearing Sea Rule to see how the LRC may open up next month.  Hint: Southern Plains/MW storm track..up the OHV??

 

[Tom]

I decided to look at  Wx Bell's site and came across some interesting data from Joe D at Wx Bell.  He uses a multitude of indicators in his model to predict both temp and precip patterns for his LR forecasts.  As of mid SEP,  below is a temp regime map for the DJF period...over the years of watching him, this tool is surprisingly quite accurate.  Some years nasso much but overall it does provide a general "idea".

[Andie]

We’re experiencing a nice gentle slide into Fall.   Shy of rain, but the temps are sweet. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

I decided to look at  Wx Bell's site and came across some interesting data from Joe D at Wx Bell.  He uses a multitude of indicators in his model to predict both temp and precip patterns for his LR forecasts.  As of mid SEP,  below is a temp regime map for the DJF period...over the years of watching him, this tool is surprisingly quite accurate.  Some years nasso much but overall it does provide a general "idea".

I don't know how the exact anomalies will play out but I think that layout is generally on the right track, with warmer than average more likely the farther south you go across the CONUS.  

[james1976]

Last 2 winters have been pretty lame so I think we're due. I believe it was 3 years ago when MSP had the 3rd highest snowfall for a season. 

[Sumweatherdude]

If the mean trough lines up like the red line and the storm track rides underneath it (purple line), that could be a good setup for KC.  But I'm totally making this up, as I have no idea whether this map is suggesting that is possible.  

[StormchaserChuck1]

35 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

If the mean trough lines up like the red line and the storm track rides underneath it (purple line), that could be a good setup for KC.  But I'm totally making this up, as I have no idea whether this map is suggesting that is possible.  

This would be the track (one for northern stream, one for southern stream), because low's ride in between the warm/cold air, and stronger cold air always follows a low pressure, while warmer air precedes it. The track veers on the side of cold overall anomalies. 

[westMJim]

Here is a winter snowfall guess.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2025-2026-first-snowfall-predictions-la-nina-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

[gimmesnow]

I have to admit, this is pretty exciting. Usually this time of year we're grabbing at straws hoping for a little sign of a good winter. instead we have signals everywhere.

[Sumweatherdude]

16 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

This would be the track (one for northern stream, one for southern stream), because low's ride in between the warm/cold air, and stronger cold air always follows a low pressure, while warmer air precedes it. The track veers on the side of cold overall anomalies. 

I don't know enough to truly argue with this.  But I do know that Kansas City has wound up too far north several times when cold air pushed the lows too far south, and OK and TX ended up getting the snow.  I know lows tend to ride along the boundaries, but in my experience in KC, the lows don't tend to veer into the colder air.  They tend to sit just underneath the cold air and draw warm air up into KC.  When the cold air anomalies are strong enough, the lows don't veer up into the cold air, they actually get shunted south into the warm air.  Just my observations.

[Andie]

We have a week ok 90-94* ahead. Really nice by Texas standards. 
In 7 days we should see a high of 89. 
Dreams do  come true. 
Still no rain forecast however.  

[Hoosier]

3 hours ago, westMJim said:

Here is a winter snowfall guess.

https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/winter-2025-2026-first-snowfall-predictions-la-nina-united-states-canada-europe-fa/

Well, that is concerning, at least to the extent that it can be as we sit here in September.

[WeatherProtogen]

here in ohio, i think mother nature is having an existential crisis. it was supposed  to be meteorological fall, but instead its summer all thru this week. probably on astronomical fall its gonna be actually cold.

anybody here that's in the lower Midwest agree with my statement?

[PositiveNao]

4 hours ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

here in ohio, i think mother nature is having an existential crisis. it was supposed  to be meteorological fall, but instead its summer all thru this week. probably on astronomical fall its gonna be actually cold.

anybody here that's in the lower Midwest agree with my statement?

Looks like the rest of the month will be a torch for the Midwest/Ohio Valley, possibly even record warm at times late in the month depending on how things play out (more likely the farther north you go). Hell even now MSP is flirting with record highs today. At the very least, the +EPO regime should lead to a continuation of the generally mild/warm temps for the foreseeable future. Oct looks very warm nationwide too, perhaps even warmer than last year. As for this upcoming winter, likely much milder as a whole, though much more active/not nearly as dry. Not really too fond of that huge area of warmth in the Pacific, though there is time for change to hopefully allow for a relaxation of the jet when the time comes.

[Tom]

Interesting Wx Bell Winter forecast write up...

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/2025-26-winter-forecast-august-update

[Tom]

I'm liking the way the JMA Weeklies are looking for what will line up to be the Opening 1-2 weeks of the new LRC pattern. 

 

Temp/Precip...west coast ridge and mean trough appears to want to set up shop right over the central CONUS.  That's a great "share the wealth" pattern from the 4 corners/Rockies all the way East into GL's.  Good signs!

 

 

[Sumweatherdude]

On 9/16/2025 at 2:49 PM, Tom said:

Interesting Wx Bell Winter forecast write up...

 

https://www.weatherbell.com/2025-26-winter-forecast-august-update

A warm fall and spring, and cold when it's supposed to be in the heart of winter sounds like perfection to me.  A nice long fall with comfortable temps would be nice. As long as December remembers it's supposed to be cold (which it hasn't done in KC for a while).  

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

A warm fall and spring, and cold when it's supposed to be in the heart of winter sounds like perfection to me.  A nice long fall with comfortable temps would be nice. As long as December remembers it's supposed to be cold (which it hasn't done in KC for a while).  

YESS, this x100...although, I will say, now that I live in Arizona my type of weather in the autumn is an extension of what you would call late summer temps.  I have fond memories of those Indian Summer weather vibes that I loved so much living in the Midwest.  The colors changing on the trees and warm days/cool nights, literally perfection...then came the cold in DEC...Dec '00 is one that comes to mind but I was in college at SIUC that year so I missed the storm parade up in Chitown.  I do remember a string of good winters that started back in DEC '07 where ORD had 50"+ snow seasons in a row.  Where did that go???  Ahhh...I think you guys are due for a winter season that produces long duration snow cover in the Midwest/Lower Lakes....I just see a lot of potential this winter, but especially, when it counts and not having to wait till end of winter/early spring when your dealing with higher sun angle, etc.  Make it Snow Again...during the holidays please!

[Thunder98]

ECMWF Z500 Mean anomaly forecast for OCT 2025

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Thunder98 said:

ECMWF Z500 Mean anomaly forecast for OCT 2025

Would imply warmer than average. 

[Timmy Supercell]

On 9/16/2025 at 3:48 PM, PositiveNao said:

Looks like the rest of the month will be a torch for the Midwest/Ohio Valley, possibly even record warm at times late in the month depending on how things play out (more likely the farther north you go). Hell even now MSP is flirting with record highs today. At the very least, the +EPO regime should lead to a continuation of the generally mild/warm temps for the foreseeable future. Oct looks very warm nationwide too, perhaps even warmer than last year. As for this upcoming winter, likely much milder as a whole, though much more active/not nearly as dry. Not really too fond of that huge area of warmth in the Pacific, though there is time for change to hopefully allow for a relaxation of the jet when the time comes.

I do cool back to below 80's some days ending the month but.. yeah. We've done full circles from below average, to mini heatwaves again and storms returning are kind of saving us from going full torch on the month. It'll be a moderately warm month in places, I was hoping mid-Fall edges more average? 

[Clinton]

Could this be the first system of the new LRC? Both the GFS and Euro have a system in this time period, as of now the GFS is much deeper. 

[Black Hole]

Here are some preliminary thoughts looking towards winter trying to create an analog blend. No real surprises here with a tendency for AK ridging and plenty of cold air in western Canada. Probably overall drier than normal for many but I'd expect near to above normal snowfall with this pattern. I will have some more later. 

 

 

[Black Hole]

If you follow the Siberian snow cover thing. That is off to a good start and that will continue the next few weeks. 

[Black Hole]

As I point out each year, the spring and early summer pattern can give hints about the winter pattern. It worked out quite well last year. It always shifts around a bit, amplitudes change, etc. But I do think this would indicate for the CONUS a tendency for central troughing, perhaps even a bit further south than my analog blend had given the tendency for SW troughing. Either way I think assuming some of this carries over its a good sign. 

[jaster220]

In last week's Sat Summary Bastardi was keen on 1950 hurricane season (late bloomer) and the following late November historic Great Appalachian Storm that caused the memorable "Snow Bowl" game between rivals Ohio State and U of M down in Columbus. Also @westMJim had a post wrt that late Sept 2017 heatwave and I remember even Oct of '17 was ridiculously hot in Marshall. But, that Dec of 2017 did a complete flip and went huge with 24.2" of snow! Looking like those years and the theme of repeating last autumn are on the table again. 

[Tom]

The 1st system of this year's LRC is looking like it could be an "inside slider" down the western shores of Canada that tracks SE into the PAC NW by the Day 9-10 period.  This is quite a different change and I think we will see more changes in the wx models.  The energy could actually cutoff and even retrograde SW into CAL.  One of the Bigger clues is the NE PAC ridge that fires up and tanks the EPO, causing precisely what a "Split Flow" pattern looks like over North America.  Will this become a common theme this coming Autumn/Winter...a legit "Split Flow Regime"???  Let's see what happens.