Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[jaster220]

In case you missed it, here is the latest "snowcall" map from WxBell:

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Tom said:

The 1st system of this year's LRC is looking like it could be an "inside slider" down the western shores of Canada that tracks SE into the PAC NW by the Day 9-10 period.  This is quite a different change and I think we will see more changes in the wx models.  The energy could actually cutoff and even retrograde SW into CAL.  One of the Bigger clues is the NE PAC ridge that fires up and tanks the EPO, causing precisely what a "Split Flow" pattern looks like over North America.  Will this become a common theme this coming Autumn/Winter...a legit "Split Flow Regime"???  Let's see what happens.

 

Neg EPO ofc gets one's attention. When you say "legit split flow" can you expand on your thoughts a bit? I was under the presumption that the default backdrop is split flow, until jets streams manage to phase (mostly just 2 of 3 and on more rare occasions a "triple phase" takes place). In my memory split flow doesn't work out very well for the Midwest with storms riding the N branch along the Canada border and locking the colder air up there leaving any system south of there with little winter potential. 

[Hoosier]

41 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

In case you missed it, here is the latest "snowcall" map from WxBell:

If Chicago area gets 125% it's going to feel like Buffalo lol.  Last few years have been more like 45-55% of average.  

[Black Hole]

I think the wxbell forecast is probably pretty close to what I would say except that I might either shift or expand it west into more of the PNW. They should get some good storms too. I think near to slightly above normal is a fine call for many areas in the Plains. 

[Tom]

13 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Neg EPO ofc gets one's attention. When you say "legit split flow" can you expand on your thoughts a bit? I was under the presumption that the default backdrop is split flow, until jets streams manage to phase (mostly just 2 of 3 and on more rare occasions a "triple phase" takes place). In my memory split flow doesn't work out very well for the Midwest with storms riding the N branch along the Canada border and locking the colder air up there leaving any system south of there with little winter potential. 

My interpretation of a Split Flow is when there is a stout 500mb Ridge over a Trough that tracks into the PAC NW/CA shoreline and heads East through the Rockies or it can dig into the 4 corners region.  Your reasoning behind a MW warm pattern isn't necessarily wrong, esp when you have a +NAO and monster trough over Central Canada and zero blocking .  On the flip side, when you do have the blocking in place this will be a completely different scenario and Arctic Air will be seeded into the lower 48.  In my opinion, the best outcome during the cold season will be when you get the -EPO and some additional blocking west of Greenland or even a Hudson Bay HP that steers storms farther south.  You can even get colder storms to develop during the heart of winter with a +NAO pattern and a deeply -EPO.  The tendency for storms to dig and track south as the jet strengthens is heightened.  I hope that helps!  

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

My interpretation of a Split Flow is when there is a stout 500mb Ridge over a Trough that tracks into the PAC NW/CA shoreline and heads East through the Rockies or it can dig into the 4 corners region.  Your reasoning behind a MW warm pattern isn't necessarily wrong, esp when you have a +NAO and monster trough over Central Canada and zero blocking .  On the flip side, when you do have the blocking in place this will be a completely different scenario and Arctic Air will be seeded into the lower 48.  In my opinion, the best outcome during the cold season will be when you get the -EPO and some additional blocking west of Greenland or even a Hudson Bay HP that steers storms farther south.  You can even get colder storms to develop during the heart of winter with a +NAO pattern and a deeply -EPO.  The tendency for storms to dig and track south as the jet strengthens is heightened.  I hope that helps!  

Ok, so cold HP following the N (Arctic) branch, over top of an SLP in the middle branch - gotcha. My scenario is when there are SLP's in both branches at the same longitude. So, "split flow" in a favorable alignment. Have we even seen this recently? Going an entire winter season without a single large storm has made everything seem like "years ago". I can remember some good ones where the HP comes into position, and then waits for the SLP to develop and run under it then after it passes to east the HP drops down. May have to go back several seasons for the LP of Mich. 

[Tom]

Accuweather going "All-In" on a rather cold winter across the Central CONUS and Snowy one for much of the northern and southern Sub.  @Black Hole @Iceresistance and our lone member in TX @Andie will not be left out as FEB looks like it might be the big month for TX/Ok peeps.  I have to agree with his idea of a JAN Thaw and the Fast Start to Winter in NOV-DEC would fit my original ideas.  Looking forward to seeing the evolution of the Autumn pattern as we head deeper into the colder months.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-2025-26-snow-cold-ahead/1817344

 

 

[Andie]

Thanks Tom.

We’re due.  I hope the Texas power people are ready.  
At least I can prep for a real Texas winter, which we get about every 5 yrs.   
After the power crisis we had several years ago with the last deep freeze, we’re ready. 

We’ve had a beautiful early Fall.  
But we really need rain - not ice.  

[Rubus Leucodermis]

41 minutes ago, Andie said:

Thanks Tom.

We’re due.  I hope the Texas power people are ready.  
At least I can prep for a real Texas winter, which we get about every 5 yrs.   
After the power crisis we had several years ago with the last deep freeze, we’re ready. 

We’ve had a beautiful early Fall.  
But we really need rain - not ice.  

Isn’t a real Texas winter one with a cold snap and icy northerly winds (and a Panhandle blizzard or two) followed a week or two later with widespread 60s (and maybe some 70s and even 80s in the lower Rio Grande Valley)?

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Accuweather going "All-In" on a rather cold winter across the Central CONUS and Snowy one for much of the northern and southern Sub.  @Black Hole @Iceresistance and our lone member in TX @Andie will not be left out as FEB looks like it might be the big month for TX/Ok peeps.  I have to agree with his idea of a JAN Thaw and the Fast Start to Winter in NOV-DEC would fit my original ideas.  Looking forward to seeing the evolution of the Autumn pattern as we head deeper into the colder months.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-2025-26-snow-cold-ahead/1817344

 

 

Those maps would indicate quite the suppressed primary storm track way down in the Appalachians. Ok, but that's not 78/79 fwiw

[Hoosier]

47 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Those maps would indicate quite the suppressed primary storm track way down in the Appalachians. Ok, but that's not 78/79 fwiw

It's a bit of an odd snowfall map for a seasonal forecast.  Not that there can't be separate areas of above average snowfall (that happens sometimes) but I wonder how they came up with those 2 zones in the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. 

[WeatherProtogen]

oh good, no snow! (snow is actually good for Lake Erie to thrive, so yay snow!)

[Sumweatherdude]

6 hours ago, Tom said:

Accuweather going "All-In" on a rather cold winter across the Central CONUS and Snowy one for much of the northern and southern Sub.  @Black Hole @Iceresistance and our lone member in TX @Andie will not be left out as FEB looks like it might be the big month for TX/Ok peeps.  I have to agree with his idea of a JAN Thaw and the Fast Start to Winter in NOV-DEC would fit my original ideas.  Looking forward to seeing the evolution of the Autumn pattern as we head deeper into the colder months.

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/us-winter-forecast-2025-26-snow-cold-ahead/1817344

 

 

Nice to see KC at least in the neighborhood of the AN snowfall forecast. 

[cmillz]

CFS continuing to show a very warm and dry pattern for the CONUS with a formidable +EPO for Nov, then suddenly flips to a -EPO with a more active/wet pattern for Dec, and not quite as warm either. May actually have a shot at a decent Dec this year, for once, though I personally don't agree with Accuweather's winter forecast. 

[Tom]

9 minutes ago, cmillz said:

CFS continuing to show a very warm and dry pattern for the CONUS with a formidable +EPO for Nov, then suddenly flips to a -EPO with a more active/wet pattern for Dec, and not quite as warm either. May actually have a shot at a decent Dec this year, for once, though I personally don't agree with Accuweather's winter forecast. 

Would love for you guys in the Midwest to finally have a good Holiday season with Snow OTG for a majority of the time.

[Andie]

6 hours ago, Rubus Leucodermis said:

Isn’t a real Texas winter one with a cold snap and icy northerly winds (and a Panhandle blizzard or two) followed a week or two later with widespread 60s (and maybe some 70s and even 80s in the lower Rio Grande Valley)?

Yup!

Don't forget a backyard BarBQ in shorts, maybe a pool party some winters. Absolutely!

I’ve seen my share of Santa’s in beards and cowboy boots around the pool in swim shorts.

[WeatherProtogen]

18 hours ago, Andie said:

Yup!

Don't forget a backyard BarBQ in shorts, maybe a pool party some winters. Absolutely!

I’ve seen my share of Santa’s in beards and cowboy boots around the pool in swim shorts.

imagine Aussie santa

[Sumweatherdude]

On 10/2/2025 at 11:52 AM, Hoosier said:

It's a bit of an odd snowfall map for a seasonal forecast.  Not that there can't be separate areas of above average snowfall (that happens sometimes) but I wonder how they came up with those 2 zones in the upper Midwest and Ohio Valley. 

Could be lots of clippers up north and colder than normal with an active southern storm track from the southern plains through Ohio valley.  

[Hoosier]

17 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Could be lots of clippers up north and colder than normal with an active southern storm track from the southern plains through Ohio valley.  

A winter with a lot of clippers would be a change of pace.  Haven't been seeing those as much for a while.  But if that is their thinking, then it's a little strange that they don't have the above average snows extending farther east through Michigan.

[WeatherProtogen]

Just now, Hoosier said:

A winter with a lot of clippers would be a change of pace.  Haven't been seeing those as much for a while.

same

[Tom]

For those who follow the LRC, looking into the future I'm seeing something that I haven't seen develop across the N PAC ocean, primarily areas N & E of Hawaii and the region just offshore of California since I've been using the LRC.  I made a comment in our other monthly thread that a potential retrograding trough would cut-off towards So Cal and this should be the first big clue for our new LRC.  Low and Behold, it will happen right on the date whereby a new mid-latitude 500mb pattern sets up on Oct 6th/7th.  

Look at the troughs that are setting up like a train tracks East of Hawaii underneath the stout NE PAC Ridge...

Last night's 0z Euro run is a wonderful example of what I envision will be a roaring jet into Cali/4 corners region during the height of winter as this cycles through.

 

What happens in Week 2, will be more or less the strongest influence that I see will dominate the weather pattern and produce an LRC Long Range Long Wave pattern.  How long can this block be a driving force of nature into the west coast?  This is what makes this time of year exciting to see how the models handle the warm waters in the region.  I'm really excited to see the placement of the NE PAC/AK ridge creating a perfect "split flow" pattern allowing storms to target Cali & the 4 corners region.  I can see a very active STJ during this Exhibit of the LRC.  With many more weeks of tracking down the piper, it won't be long till we are tracking our first winter storm of the season for our Sub!

 

Week 2 precip outlook below...now doesn't that Accuweather Snowfall forecast look like it could be onto something?  I will say, however, they might be very wrong on a dry/warm winter for the Southwest if my analysis is right.  To early yet to say for certain as I'd like to see where this new pattern leads us into mid November.  Nevertheless, I do foresee a very active jet and tremendous amounts of moisture this Autumn/Winter season for the Rockies into portions of our Sub.

 

[Sumweatherdude]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

For those who follow the LRC, looking into the future I'm seeing something that I haven't seen develop across the N PAC ocean, primarily areas N & E of Hawaii and the region just offshore of California since I've been using the LRC.  I made a comment in our other monthly thread that a potential retrograding trough would cut-off towards So Cal and this should be the first big clue for our new LRC.  Low and Behold, it will happen right on the date whereby a new mid-latitude 500mb pattern sets up on Oct 6th/7th.  

Look at the troughs that are setting up like a train tracks East of Hawaii underneath the stout NE PAC Ridge...

Last night's 0z Euro run is a wonderful example of what I envision will be a roaring jet into Cali/4 corners region during the height of winter as this cycles through.

 

What happens in Week 2, will be more or less the strongest influence that I see will dominate the weather pattern and produce an LRC Long Range Long Wave pattern.  How long can this block be a driving force of nature into the west coast?  This is what makes this time of year exciting to see how the models handle the warm waters in the region.  I'm really excited to see the placement of the NE PAC/AK ridge creating a perfect "split flow" pattern allowing storms to target Cali & the 4 corners region.  I can see a very active STJ during this Exhibit of the LRC.  With many more weeks of tracking down the piper, it won't be long till we are tracking our first winter storm of the season for our Sub!

 

Week 2 precip outlook below...now doesn't that Accuweather Snowfall forecast look like it could be onto something?  I will say, however, they might be very wrong on a dry/warm winter for the Southwest if my analysis is right.  To early yet to say for certain as I'd like to see where this new pattern leads us into mid November.  Nevertheless, I do foresee a very active jet and tremendous amounts of moisture this Autumn/Winter season for the Rockies into portions of our Sub.

 

Four corners lows are what often bring Kansas City its  best winter storms. They just need to track far enough south through Oklahoma, up into  east central Missouri for us to be on the backside with the cold air.  If predictions of cold shots moving down the east side of the Rockies holds true, it could bode well for Kansas City. But as I have always said, things have to come together just right around here as opposed to places like Minneapolis where the cold is almost always in place and they just need to get the moisture 

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Sumweatherdude said:

Four corners lows are what often bring Kansas City its  best winter storms. They just need to track far enough south through Oklahoma, up into  east central Missouri for us to be on the backside with the cold air.  If predictions of cold shots moving down the east side of the Rockies holds true, it could bode well for Kansas City. But as I have always said, things have to come together just right around here as opposed to places like Minneapolis where the cold is almost always in place and they just need to get the moisture 

100%, same thing can be said for Chicago and most of the central/eastern MW.  How many times have we seen hard cutters in recent years?  Or bad timing of the cold but abundant moisture???  Last year, the presence of cold was readily available but lack of any moisture skunked a lot of the Lakes region.  Can we flip it around this year and marry up both elements??  I think we a good shot at it for your area in KC and up towards the Land of Lincoln and Michiganders.

[Hoosier]

29 minutes ago, Tom said:

100%, same thing can be said for Chicago and most of the central/eastern MW.  How many times have we seen hard cutters in recent years?  Or bad timing of the cold but abundant moisture???  Last year, the presence of cold was readily available but lack of any moisture skunked a lot of the Lakes region.  Can we flip it around this year and marry up both elements??  I think we a good shot at it for your area in KC and up towards the Land of Lincoln and Michiganders.

I'd be a little surprised if we don't have more periods of southeast ridging this winter compared to last winter.  If that's the case, then it should tip the odds towards having more precip than last winter overall, which was quite dry in this part of the country save for a zone in parts of the Ohio Valley.  At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  

[MMike]

24 minutes ago, Tom said:

100%, same thing can be said for Chicago and most of the central/eastern MW.  How many times have we seen hard cutters in recent years?  Or bad timing of the cold but abundant moisture???  Last year, the presence of cold was readily available but lack of any moisture skunked a lot of the Lakes region.  Can we flip it around this year and marry up both elements??  I think we a good shot at it for your area in KC and up towards the Land of Lincoln and Michiganders.

We had a true winter in KC last year starting with the blizzard on Jan. 4th. Had multiple snows after that ending with another blizzard warning on March 4th. 
 

We have had two sticking snows Thanksgiving week the last two years. However, Dec. followed with nothing. 
 

Hoping for a quick start to winter this year. We need to get wet first, very warm and dry pattern here in KC the last 75 days. 

[Tom]

1 hour ago, MMike said:

We had a true winter in KC last year starting with the blizzard on Jan. 4th. Had multiple snows after that ending with another blizzard warning on March 4th. 
 

We have had two sticking snows Thanksgiving week the last two years. However, Dec. followed with nothing. 
 

Hoping for a quick start to winter this year. We need to get wet first, very warm and dry pattern here in KC the last 75 days. 

Your region was definitely the place that stole the show with all the snow and also along the gulf coast!  You also enjoyed a snow cover for a decent period of time.  I remember flying over the area back in January and the snow cover began all the way back into W KS up towards IL, albeit, very minimal by the time I reached chitown.

[jaster220]

On 10/3/2025 at 1:27 PM, Sumweatherdude said:

Could be lots of clippers up north and colder than normal with an active southern storm track from the southern plains through Ohio valley.  

RIght, which was basically last winter. Clippers brought little moisture so only the true LES belt regions cashed-in (and they really did big time!). 

But on the topic of a 78-79 analog winter, the results were vastly different. Data from a regular NWS site 20 miles east of me where they avg 48"/season and little if any LES shows 78/79 as 14th snowiest (tho big winters of the 1920's are missing all data for some reason) and both DEC & JAN were way AN. Actually, DEC delivered more than half an avg winter's total:

Last year's pattern delivered only 11.5" there by comparison.

78-79 was much more than just clippers as shown by the bliz of '79 map:

[jaster220]

On 10/3/2025 at 1:45 PM, Hoosier said:

A winter with a lot of clippers would be a change of pace.  Haven't been seeing those as much for a while.  But if that is their thinking, then it's a little strange that they don't have the above average snows extending farther east through Michigan.

See my post above - last winter was a LOT of clippers up here. I presume you meant a further south clipper track that hits Chicagoland?

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

RIght, which was basically last winter. Clippers brought little moisture so only the true LES belt regions cashed-in (and they really did big time!). 

But on the topic of a 78-79 analog winter, the results were vastly different. Data from a regular NWS site 20 miles east of me where they avg 48"/season and little if any LES shows 78/79 as 14th snowiest (tho big winters of the 1920's are missing all data for some reason) and both DEC & JAN were way AN. Actually, DEC delivered more than half an avg winter's total:

Last year's pattern delivered only 11.5" there by comparison.

78-79 was much more than just clippers as shown by the bliz of '79 map:

After how the past few winters have gone, it almost seems impossible that we'll see another system like that again.  I know we will at some point though.

[Hoosier]

21 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

See my post above - last winter was a LOT of clippers up here. I presume you meant a further south clipper track that hits Chicagoland?

Clippers have seemingly become almost non-existent this far south.  Maybe a slight exaggeration but not much.  

[Tom]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

See my post above - last winter was a LOT of clippers up here. I presume you meant a further south clipper track that hits Chicagoland?

I'd imagine we will see some Miller B storm tracks this year, esp when you take into consideration a good chance for some slight SER and Greenland Blocking.  I can see that happening.

[Thunder98]

ECMWF has the far northern areas that could see average temps this winter and warmer than average elsewhere.

 

 

[Hoosier]

22 minutes ago, Thunder98 said:

ECMWF has the far northern areas that could see average temps this winter and warmer than average elsewhere.

 

 

That temp outlook is almost a dead ringer for its winter 2024-25 outlook that came out in Oct.  Didn't pan out too well last winter though:

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

That temp outlook is almost a dead ringer for its winter 2024-25 outlook that came out in Oct.  Didn't pan out too well last winter though:

 

Actually a lot colder look over here anyways. And we know it is challenged with cold. 

[Hoosier]

48 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Actually a lot colder look over here anyways. And we know it is challenged with cold. 

Yeah but on the whole, it's pretty similar for most areas.  One of the things that messed up many outlooks last winter was more +PNA and less southeast ridging than expected.  If we have less +PNA and more southeast ridging this winter then I would expect a warmer outcome than what happened last winter.

[jaster220]

37 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yeah but on the whole, it's pretty similar for most areas.  One of the things that messed up many outlooks last winter was more +PNA and less southeast ridging than expected.  If we have less +PNA and more southeast ridging this winter then I would expect a warmer outcome than what happened last winter.

 iirc, both 78-79 and 13-14 analogs were the increasingly elusive CAW winters. Not warm by any means.

[Tom]

The seasons 1st Big Snows of the season fell from Park City, UT up into Yellowstone and MT/WY Rockies!

https://snowbrains.com/photos-up-to-12-of-october-snow-slams-utah-montana-wyoming/

[jaster220]

Watch out! Don't wanna get hit by Quigley 

[cmillz]

On 10/5/2025 at 8:43 PM, Hoosier said:

Yeah but on the whole, it's pretty similar for most areas.  One of the things that messed up many outlooks last winter was more +PNA and less southeast ridging than expected.  If we have less +PNA and more southeast ridging this winter then I would expect a warmer outcome than what happened last winter.

Should be wetter and more active too. Think we def see more snow than last winter, despite it likely being warmer, though that isn't a very high bar to clear.

[cmillz]

btw, this is NOT what you want to see during winter if you're hoping for a snowy and cold pattern, esp if you live in the Northeast. I know it's early, but I'm concerned this may be a reoccurring theme as we descend into the colder months.