Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[Tom]

Eurasian Snow cover extent shooting northward....bodes well for a possible Polar Vortex disruption in the winter if the pace of snow cover continue through October.

[Niko]

Hope this verifies: Not bad for alotta members on here. Could be a decent cold/snowy winter for a change.

Listen closely to 12:32 to about 12:44. Basically for all of S MI only. 

[Sumweatherdude]

Forecast porn.  Sorry.  It’s the most apt description. 

 

[jaster220]

7 hours ago, Tom said:

Eurasian Snow cover extent shooting northward....bodes well for a possible Polar Vortex disruption in the winter if the pace of snow cover continue through October.

Was just wondering about this - thanks for posting. Iirc, the correlation metric is based on entire month of October so we've got a few weeks to see final results. Very high to begin the month tho. Sorry for your Cubbies btw. Joing my Tiger's fate. 

[Tom]

7 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Was just wondering about this - thanks for posting. Iirc, the correlation metric is based on entire month of October so we've got a few weeks to see final results. Very high to begin the month tho. Sorry for your Cubbies btw. Joing my Tiger's fate. 

Ya sadly, but I wasn’t too upset as I should’ve been if I were watching them all season long.  I wasn’t really tuned into them until the last couple weeks of September.  Hey, we got the “bad news Bears” to watch all winter!  lol 

[jaster220]

36 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ya sadly, but I wasn’t too upset as I should’ve been if I were watching them all season long.  I wasn’t really tuned into them until the last couple weeks of September.  Hey, we got the “bad news Bears” to watch all winter!  lol 

Right now its GO LIONS!!! (hi @Clinton)

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Right now its GO LIONS!!! (hi @Clinton)

The Chiefs gotta win tonight, no more loosing.  Warm night in KC temp is still 77.

[Black Hole]

A guy I like to follow on another forum (RainDanceWx) had this for his winter outlook:
 

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23

Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025

That's a very cold Jan-Feb. December could be a transition month and March is mixed as well. 

[jaster220]

20 hours ago, Niko said:

Hope this verifies: Not bad for alotta members on here. Could be a decent cold/snowy winter for a change.

Listen closely to 12:32 to about 12:44. Basically for all of S MI only. 

Yeah - he hits yby really hard as you mentioned. I've said since growing up in SEMI that Detroit does best in an "overwhelming cold" regime. Thus 2013-14 cold is really needed for his commentary (watch out for bliz's in that region) to verify. Nina's generally produce the AN precip like he and even the CPC indicate. Always comes down to how much cold air is properly timed with any precipitation makers. There is the 07-08 exception for Detroit when perfectly timed cold made most storms snow vs rain. That's a very low minority season if you ask me. A lot of thawing so depths never happened like in a truly cold winter like 81-82.

[Hoosier]

11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

A guy I like to follow on another forum (RainDanceWx) had this for his winter outlook:
 

Oct, Nov, Dec, Jan, Feb: 2013-14 (x4), 2024-25 (x4), 2018-19, 2022-23

Mar, Apr: 2019 (x4), 2023 (x4), 2014, 2025

That's a very cold Jan-Feb. December could be a transition month and March is mixed as well. 

Would be a little surprised if it ends up that cold.  In the snowfall department, those featured my best winter of all time (at least in my lifetime), 2 absolute turd sandwiches, and 1 winter that was solidly snowier than average.  Snowfall is a tricky beast.  

[Niko]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Yeah - he hits yby really hard as you mentioned. I've said since growing up in SEMI that Detroit does best in an "overwhelming cold" regime. Thus 2013-14 cold is really needed for his commentary (watch out for bliz's in that region) to verify. Nina's generally produce the AN precip like he and even the CPC indicate. Always comes down to how much cold air is properly timed with any precipitation makers. There is the 07-08 exception for Detroit when perfectly timed cold made most storms snow vs rain. That's a very low minority season if you ask me. A lot of thawing so depths never happened like in a truly cold winter like 81-82.

Lets hope amigo. Fingers crossed. I would luv to see another 2013-14 winter!! 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be a little surprised if it ends up that cold.  In the snowfall department, those featured my best winter of all time (at least in my lifetime), 2 absolute turd sandwiches, and 1 winter that was solidly snowier than average.  Snowfall is a tricky beast.  

Not sure how good the CANSIPs model is, but its got me in the ice box. That's what @Niko needs. I need the Euro or heck even the NMME up here. Per Harrison old site data, 78-79 was not that snowy here, just a nice DEC/JAN with multiple hits and little if any melt-downs. But, it also has 11" total for the big bliz (1/13 & 14 1979) but a depth increase of just 6 inches. I just hate to see data which isn't logical. '79 storm was not the wind monster that '78 was. I doubt their measuring site was wide open as there is little of that around here. There were snowier winters here for sure. 78-79 may not even be a top-10 winter. 08-09 was big but only have that site east of here to judge by after 85-86. This place seems pretty good for medium hits stacking up for nice depths but big hits are not any more common than say down in Marshall. 

[jaster220]

On 10/4/2025 at 1:53 PM, Hoosier said:

I'd be a little surprised if we don't have more periods of southeast ridging this winter compared to last winter.  If that's the case, then it should tip the odds towards having more precip than last winter overall, which was quite dry in this part of the country save for a zone in parts of the Ohio Valley.  At least that's my story and I'm sticking to it.  

Got a link to that site where you prepared this map? I want to see one for total snowfall against normal for the last 6 winters (21-25). Is it even possible to set parameters like that? I have MRCC site and I don't find any data longer than year-to-date. 

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Got a link to that site where you prepared this map? I want to see one for total snowfall against normal for the last 6 winters (21-25). Is it even possible to set parameters like that? I have MRCC site and I don't find any data longer than year-to-date. 

I have been able to plot multi-year snowfall maps using the link below.  Looks like they are updating things though so I haven't tried it lately to see if it still works.  Also might have to be signed in:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/stnMap_btd.jsp

[Tom]

Here we go Team...The JMA Seasonal just came out with it's new run and it continues to illustrate a FAST START to WINTER...what is striking to me is the bountiful blocking near Greenland!  If ya'll are like me and want to see a cold/stormy holiday season...and a Winter that doesn't give up its legs during the Heart of Winter???  Well, this is your model run for and quite the "eye candy".  

As we close out Met Autumn and head into NOV, there is a clear sign that a Long Term Long Wave Trough is trying to establish itself over the Eastern CONUS and Greenland Blocking.

NOV...

 

Temp/Precip..looks to me like the N stream Jet is active and a "HINT" of AN precip down by my area near SO CAL.  The Plains/Upper MW should see their fair share of storminess in this type of pattern.  Temps are rather seasonal across the majority of the SUB except for some pockets of AN from TX and areas due North.

 

 

 

DEC...Can we FINALLY see a December to Remember???  This 500mb map is suggesting all 3 in Tandem...-AO, -EPO and -NAO...am I Dreaming???  Let's Freaking Go!!

 

Temp/Precip...you can pretty much see an active SUB and lots of moisture for literally everyone on here.

 

 

JAN...Keep on, Keeping on...Let's Go Greenland Block and Hook that Block up TOP~!!!

 

 

Temp/Precip...This is what you wanna see during the Heart of Winter..."Coast to Coast" storms with tremendous moisture and COLD funneling into the pattern.  Wowwa weewaa...lets see this happen and Build a Glacier over the Heartland!!!  Keep in mind, that this model in the extended rarely sees any BN temp anomalies until its Nowcast time.  The placement of the AK/NW NAMER Ridge and Trough that is located across Canada is usually a perfect scenario to dislodge all the cold into the Lower 48.  I will say, however, the slight SER signal can play a crucial role for our southern members and the OHV.

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

Here we go Team...The JMA Seasonal just came out with it's new run and it continues to illustrate a FAST START to WINTER...what is striking to me is the bountiful blocking near Greenland!  If ya'll are like me and want to see a cold/stormy holiday season...and a Winter that doesn't give up its legs during the Heart of Winter???  Well, this is your model run for and quite the "eye candy".  

As we close out Met Autumn and head into NOV, there is a clear sign that a Long Term Long Wave Trough is trying to establish itself over the Eastern CONUS and Greenland Blocking.

NOV...

 

Temp/Precip..looks to me like the N stream Jet is active and a "HINT" of AN precip down by my area near SO CAL.  The Plains/Upper MW should see their fair share of storminess in this type of pattern.  Temps are rather seasonal across the majority of the SUB except for some pockets of AN from TX and areas due North.

 

 

 

DEC...Can we FINALLY see a December to Remember???  This 500mb map is suggesting all 3 in Tandem...-AO, -EPO and -NAO...am I Dreaming???  Let's Freaking Go!!

 

Temp/Precip...you can pretty much see an active SUB and lots of moisture for literally everyone on here.

 

 

JAN...Keep on, Keeping on...Let's Go Greenland Block and Hook that Block up TOP~!!!

 

 

Temp/Precip...This is what you wanna see during the Heart of Winter..."Coast to Coast" storms with tremendous moisture and COLD funneling into the pattern.  Wowwa weewaa...lets see this happen and Build a Glacier over the Heartland!!!  Keep in mind, that this model in the extended rarely sees any BN temp anomalies until its Nowcast time.  The placement of the AK/NW NAMER Ridge and Trough that is located across Canada is usually a perfect scenario to dislodge all the cold into the Lower 48.  I will say, however, the slight SER signal can play a crucial role for our southern members and the OHV.

 

So are you telling me that AI voiced video @Sumweatherdude posted was legit?? 

JMA for December looks wild here - the lakes should be adding onto whatever the jet-born systems can bring. 

Also like the nice warm weather hanging on til the "other shoe drops" (see 75-76 as a perfect example).

Keep this coming @Tom 

[Tom]

29 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

So are you telling me that AI voiced video @Sumweatherdude posted was legit?? 

JMA for December looks wild here - the lakes should be adding onto whatever the jet-born systems can bring. 

Also like the nice warm weather hanging on til the "other shoe drops" (see 75-76 as a perfect example).

Keep this coming @Tom 

It's looking very promising buddy...especially seeing the heart of the Trough centered over the Lakes region!  It will definitely help the tourism up there!

[Sumweatherdude]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

So are you telling me that AI voiced video @Sumweatherdude posted was legit?? 

JMA for December looks wild here - the lakes should be adding onto whatever the jet-born systems can bring. 

Also like the nice warm weather hanging on til the "other shoe drops" (see 75-76 as a perfect example).

Keep this coming @Tom 

I compared it to watching porn.  I, for one, don't think performances in porn are real.  Hopefully that answer's your question.

[jaster220]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

It's looking very promising buddy...especially seeing the heart of the Trough centered over the Lakes region!  It will definitely help the tourism up there!

Noticed that too. Seems like a recipe for the elusive unicorn bomb storm that has been MIA (Dec '22 was mostly LES). Classic is a foot from synoptic followed by another foot of LES. Nov '89 and Jan '90 were like that in NMI.

[Black Hole]

On 10/13/2025 at 10:43 AM, Hoosier said:

Would be a little surprised if it ends up that cold.  In the snowfall department, those featured my best winter of all time (at least in my lifetime), 2 absolute turd sandwiches, and 1 winter that was solidly snowier than average.  Snowfall is a tricky beast.  

I agree that it's unlikely we get that cold, or at least cold that often. I think it's very likely we get at least one memorable cold snap though. Overall I think the northern areas will at least average below normal. 

[Tom]

TWC suggests DEC should start off rather wintry for the northern tier...

[Sumweatherdude]

57 minutes ago, Tom said:

TWC suggests DEC should start off rather wintry for the northern tier...

No one is expected to have normal temperatures?  

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Sumweatherdude said:

No one is expected to have normal temperatures?  

Normal is boring don't ya know.

[StormchaserChuck1]

CPC actually has a cooler forecast than they usually put out.. I think this updated today

[Hoosier]

Was looking through snowfall stats for Chicago.  They are currently on a 3 year streak of sub 23" snowfall seasons.  There have been two other such streaks before -- one in the late 1800s and one in the 1920s.  There has never been a stretch of 4 consecutive years with under 23" of snowfall.  

So after this winter, we will either see something that hasn't been recorded before, or we won't.  Kind of hard to go with the thing that hasn't happened before.  That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a great snowfall season though.

[jaster220]

18 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Was looking through snowfall stats for Chicago.  They are currently on a 3 year streak of sub 23" snowfall seasons.  There have been two other such streaks before -- one in the late 1800s and one in the 1920s.  There has never been a stretch of 4 consecutive years with under 23" of snowfall.  

So after this winter, we will either see something that hasn't been recorded before, or we won't.  Kind of hard to go with the thing that hasn't happened before.  That doesn't necessarily mean it will be a great snowfall season though.

Remember Skilling saying after 2010-11 that "four winters in a row with 50+ inches for Chicago and that's never happened" so there's that fwiw?

[OttumwaSnomow]

On 10/16/2025 at 8:22 AM, Tom said:

TWC suggests DEC should start off rather wintry for the northern tier...

Hey Tom, after this Feb 2021 forecast by TWC. I stopped watching them altogether. You might remember the horrific freeze and ice deep into Tex. Here in Iowa  a met in Cedar Rapids  produced some research that Feb 2021 was one of the coldest in history in Iowa.

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Remember Skilling saying after 2010-11 that "four winters in a row with 50+ inches for Chicago and that's never happened" so there's that fwiw?

True.  Anything is possible.  It's just difficult to bet on a streak that hasn't been seen before. 

Fun fact about that 2010-11 winter... had the big GHD storm not occurred, that season would've been a couple ticks below average snowfall for Chicago.

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Hey Tom, after this Feb 2021 forecast by TWC. I stopped watching them altogether. You might remember the horrific freeze and ice deep into Tex. Here in Iowa  a met in Cedar Rapids  produced some research that Feb 2021 was one of the coldest in history in Iowa.

I don't really care what The Weather Channel says, but I'm not even sure that map that Tom posted is a TWC map.  Is The Weather Company the same thing as The Weather Channel?  

[Tom]

10 hours ago, OttumwaSnomow said:

Hey Tom, after this Feb 2021 forecast by TWC. I stopped watching them altogether. You might remember the horrific freeze and ice deep into Tex. Here in Iowa  a met in Cedar Rapids  produced some research that Feb 2021 was one of the coldest in history in Iowa.

Noted!  Was that forecast made 1 month out or was it 3 months out???  I can't remember exactly when they made this forecast.

[Tom]

10 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I don't really care what The Weather Channel says, but I'm not even sure that map that Tom posted is a TWC map.  Is The Weather Company the same thing as The Weather Channel?  

Yes, The Weather Company owns and operates weather.com and is the forecasting and information technology side of the company.

[OttumwaSnomow]

5 hours ago, Tom said:

Noted!  Was that forecast made 1 month out or was it 3 months out???  I can't remember exactly when they made this forecast.

I believe they put that map out late Jan 2021. Within 3 or 4 days all the long range models began to change. It ended up being a brutal long cold and snowy period for the entire middle part of usa.

[Andie]

Indeed. 
Texas was not prepared.  
My husband was Fleet and Equipment Manager for the City of Ft Worth.  Blindsided, he was scrambling to keep services running as power was out across the city/and Texas.  Emergency generators had to be fueled to keep a skeleton crew up and running. Ambulance and Fire had to be ready.  I was freezing here at home. 
Texas learned its lesson. But no more crisis cold, k? Rain.  
Rain is good.  Very dry Fall so far.  

[Niko]

Hopefully we can get some updated winter outlooks soon. Very anxious to see what they say.

[Clinton]

Good write-up from D'Aleo 

The 120 days ending mid September were near to below normal central to east despite some warm spells. Heavy rains helped limit warmth most summer areas.

That period was wet early though amounts had decreased north and south.

The last 60 days turned sharply drier central and east and with that change, the last 30 days turned warmer central and east.

The late drying led to lowest number of 100F days (5) in Dallas in 21 years.

The northwest and northeast Pacific had warm water mid September, a cold signal for the US in the colder months if it persisted.

The latest warmth relating to the latest deep sea volcanism is moving east through the north Pacific.

Former Typhoon Halong brought damaging flooding to Alaska. https://x.com/i/status/1977426835542598139

UW-Madison CIMSS

@UWCIMSS

Water Vapor images from #GOES18/#GOESWest with plots of 30-minute peak wind gusts showed ex-typhoon #Halong as it approached Alaska - notable peak gusts included 80 kts/92 mph at St. George in the Bering Sea and 75 kts/86 mph at Cape Newenham on the SW coast of Alaska. #AKwx

 

 

The QBO mode (east or west) modulates the favored trough ridge. This is an east QBO, favoring more cold further east in the USA.

The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west.

The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west.

Compositing the average year matching the east QBO, weak La Nina cold PDO and warm AMO with declining to weak solar matches JB's/WB's winter outlook.

 

West QBO, strong La Ninas a very different tendency.

The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west.

 

Compositing the average year matching the east QBO, weak La Nina cold PDO and warm AMO with declining to weak solar matches JB's/WB's winter outlook.

 

Recent posts cover various factors at play. More to follow.

 

Archived Posts

[StormchaserChuck1]

CPC Winter outlooks

[jaster220]

On 10/14/2025 at 12:21 AM, Hoosier said:

I have been able to plot multi-year snowfall maps using the link below.  Looks like they are updating things though so I haven't tried it lately to see if it still works.  Also might have to be signed in:

https://mrcc.purdue.edu/CLIMATE/Maps/stnMap_btd.jsp

@Hoosier can you verify this link it sais page not found?

[Hoosier]

10 hours ago, jaster220 said:

@Hoosier can you verify this link it sais page not found?

It looks like it only works when I'm logged in. 

[jaster220]

9 hours ago, Hoosier said:

It looks like it only works when I'm logged in. 

k, thx. I will see if I can login too then.

[Hoosier]

Here's something interesting.  For Chicago, November has outsnowed December a total of 21 times in 141 years of snowfall records, so that is an average of once or twice per decade over the long term.  But in the past 11 years, this feat has been accomplished 6 times!  I think that is beyond coincidence and we can speculate as to why this may be.  

The last 2 Novembers have received more snow than December.  Since records began, there has never been a 3 year streak of November having more snow than December.  Personally I hope that December has more snow this year, as November snow is kind of just stat padding at these latitudes at it will almost always melt off at some point later in that month or in December.