Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[mlgamer]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something interesting.  For Chicago, November has outsnowed December a total of 21 times in 141 years of snowfall records, so that is an average of once or twice per decade over the long term.  But in the past 11 years, this feat has been accomplished 6 times!  I think that is beyond coincidence and we can speculate as to why this may be.  

The last 2 Novembers have received more snow than December.  Since records began, there has never been a 3 year streak of November having more snow than December.  Personally I hope that December has more snow this year, as November snow is kind of just stat padding at these latitudes at it will almost always melt off at some point later in that month or in December.  

That is interesting!

Topeka snowfall is interesting when dividing the past 30 years of data in half:

• November
• 1995-2009 (15 yrs): 8.5" (0.6" avg)
• 2010-2024 (15 yrs): 19.9" (1.3" avg)

• December
• 1995-2009 (15 yrs): 86.8" (5.8" avg)
• 2010-2024 (15 yrs): 25.4" (1.7" avg)

November doubled from the first group to the second group. December snowfall collapsed in the second group as compared to the first group.  Basically, the 2009 Christmas blizzard was the last hurrah for significant December snowfall in Topeka. Also, November had more snowfall than December six times, and like Chicago included the last two. (1996, 2004, 2006, 2018, 2023, 2024).

But what's REALLY interesting is the average snowfall for November (1.3") and December (1.7") is nearly the same over the past 15 years! That's pretty nuts really!

Will Nov/Dec 2025 be snowy around my town? Probably not...

 

 

 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, mlgamer said:

That is interesting!

Topeka snowfall is interesting when dividing the past 30 years of data in half:

• November
• 1995-2009 (15 yrs): 8.5" (0.6" avg)
• 2010-2024 (15 yrs): 19.9" (1.3" avg)

• December
• 1995-2009 (15 yrs): 86.8" (5.8" avg)
• 2010-2024 (15 yrs): 25.4" (1.7" avg)

November doubled from the first group to the second group. December snowfall collapsed in the second group as compared to the first group.  Basically, the 2009 Christmas blizzard was the last hurrah for significant December snowfall in Topeka. Also, November had more snowfall than December six times, and like Chicago included the last two. (1996, 2004, 2006, 2018, 2023, 2024).

But what's REALLY interesting is the average snowfall for November (1.3") and December (1.7") is nearly the same over the past 15 years! That's pretty nuts really!

Will Nov/Dec 2025 be snowy around my town? Probably not...

 

 

 

Interesting to see a similar trend in that area.  Not normal for November to be competitive with December for snowfall!  

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Here's something interesting.  For Chicago, November has outsnowed December a total of 21 times in 141 years of snowfall records, so that is an average of once or twice per decade over the long term.  But in the past 11 years, this feat has been accomplished 6 times!  I think that is beyond coincidence and we can speculate as to why this may be.  

The last 2 Novembers have received more snow than December.  Since records began, there has never been a 3 year streak of November having more snow than December.  Personally I hope that December has more snow this year, as November snow is kind of just stat padding at these latitudes at it will almost always melt off at some point later in that month or in December.  

Dec 2000 or 2008?? Hmm. Pre-Christmas blizzard per Skilling is a once in 50 yrs event for Chicago and we're only at 25 yrs. Dec 2008 is possibly the snowiest for this region at nearly 46" which ofc means I'd take either option 

[Niko]

Shocking that NOAA does not have a painted color of AN temps, instead, equal chances. Good sign! Also another good sign that it shows AN precipitation. If NOAA is feeling this, then, that means we are in for deep winter here. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

[Grizzcoat]

Time to hit this site again for some winter fun. Grizz is back!

Tis the season- 3rd fire of the season .

[chescowxman]

The NWS has issued a Frost Advisory for tonight for the entire area. However, many spots below 500 ft ASL in Chester County have already seen multiple freezing mornings. Those valley spots may again see freezing temperatures while some higher spots could see some frost but likely staying above freezing. For the rest of October, we should see below normal temperatures with daytime highs falling from the upper 50's today to the low 50's for highs by the start of the new work week. Lows should be frosty most mornings with a widespread freeze possible by next Monday and Tuesday mornings. We stay dry until our next chance of showers on Tuesday night.

[Tom]

The JMA Weeklies today would confirm what the CFSv2 is suggesting as well as the Euro Weeklies for the 1st half of NOV.  West Warm & Cold East..."Beast from the East"???  It appears that a Long Term, Long Wave Trough pattern is going to establish itself around Halloween and continue into the foreseeable future.

Week 2...West-Based Greenland Block should Keep on Coming On...I can see a favorable Miller B storm track, some clippers and the start of an active Northern Jet.... #PACWaveTrain in the Making's.

 

Temp/Precip...

 

 

Week 3-4...This could really start up a winter like pattern and a dominant NW Flow regime.  I see the Greenland Block disappears and a Stout -EPO develops.   The Aleutian Low takes hold and that is a very good signal to suggest a cold opening to DEC.  Using the BSR as a LR forecasting method (17-21 days later)...you can see the potential.

 

Temp/Precip....Nice AN Precip signal for this far out is great to see from the PAC NW/Rockies into the Upper MW/GL's/MW region.  Very large area of seasonal/BN temps suggesting to me that there will likely be a lot of transient troughs across the middle of the Nation.

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

The JMA Weeklies today would confirm what the CFSv2 is suggesting as well as the Euro Weeklies for the 1st half of NOV.  West Warm & Cold East..."Beast from the East"???  It appears that a Long Term, Long Wave Trough pattern is going to establish itself around Halloween and continue into the foreseeable future.

Week 2...West-Based Greenland Block should Keep on Coming On...I can see a favorable Miller B storm track, some clippers and the start of an active Northern Jet.... #PACWaveTrain in the Making's.

 

Temp/Precip...

 

 

Week 3-4...This could really start up a winter like pattern and a dominant NW Flow regime.  I see the Greenland Block disappears and a Stout -EPO develops.   The Aleutian Low takes hold and that is a very good signal to suggest a cold opening to DEC.  Using the BSR as a LR forecasting method (17-21 days later)...you can see the potential.

 

Temp/Precip....Nice AN Precip signal for this far out is great to see from the PAC NW/Rockies into the Upper MW/GL's/MW region.  Very large area of seasonal/BN temps suggesting to me that there will likely be a lot of transient troughs across the middle of the Nation.

It sure looks like the Lakes and the NE is going to have a heck of a winter.

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, Clinton said:

It sure looks like the Lakes and the NE is going to have a heck of a winter.

The writing is on the Wall...but we all know who has the finally say...Mother Nature as she always does!!  I'm sure there will be some curve balls in the mix, esp down by you and @Black Hole.

[jaster220]

20 hours ago, Niko said:

Shocking that NOAA does not have a painted color of AN temps, instead, equal chances. Good sign! Also another good sign that it shows AN precipitation. If NOAA is feeling this, then, that means we are in for deep winter here. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=2

Ikr?? Should mean we're in the battle zone as storms trek through (at least that's my story and I'm sticking to it!)

[Hoosier]

36 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Ikr?? Should mean we're in the battle zone as storms trek through (at least that's my story and I'm sticking to it!)

Going off of memory but I feel like the CPC outlook resembles the one from last winter, which wouldn't be a surprise because stock ENSO very heavily factors into their outlooks.  Anyone have their winter outlook from last year for comparison?

[Hoosier]

Nevermind... tracked down the CPC outlook for last winter, which was actually posted by me.  I put it on a 5 second loop with this year's outlook for comparison.  Definitely a somewhat similar flavor between the 2 outlooks, but the one this year does have a larger area of below/equal chances.  

 

[jaster220]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

Nevermind... tracked down the CPC outlook for last winter, which was actually posted by me.  I put it on a 5 second loop with this year's outlook for comparison.  Definitely a somewhat similar flavor between the 2 outlooks, but the one this year does have a larger area of below/equal chances.  

 

Then when you look at the actual temp regime for DJF their "hugging ENSO" mantra becomes glaringly obvious. They were way off the mark. Were/are the two Nina's close in strength? Haven't paid much attention tbh.

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

Then when you look at the actual temp regime for DJF their "hugging ENSO" mantra becomes glaringly obvious. They were way off the mark. Were/are the two Nina's close in strength? Haven't paid much attention tbh.

I can't find the site that I use to look up past ENSO events.  Not sure if it was taken down because of the ongoing govt shutdown or some other reason.  But I think last winter may have fallen just short of being a Nina via the ONI, but other metrics were indicative of it being a Nina.  The Nina this year should at least be on par with last year if not a bit stronger.  

[Niko]

5 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Ikr?? Should mean we're in the battle zone as storms trek through (at least that's my story and I'm sticking to it!)

Ugggh...last thing we need is experiencing a slopfest in our area. Hopefully not. Last thing we need is getting ice on top of several inches of snow followed by all rain and then back to snow as the colder air wraps around the low pressure area and if we are lucky enough, some accumulations on the backend of the precipitation. Nothing like an all out snowevent followed by bitterly cold temps followed by more snow and just keep adding to it. 

[jaster220]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Ugggh...last thing we need is experiencing a slopfest in our area. Hopefully not. Last thing we need is getting ice on top of several inches of snow followed by all rain and then back to snow as the colder air wraps around the low pressure area and if we are lucky enough, some accumulations on the backend of the precipitation. Nothing like an all out snowevent followed by bitterly cold temps followed by more snow and just keep adding to it. 

That's just the "tax payer funded map" anyways so means nothing sadly. What I bolded would be 1880-81 or 2013-14 for SEMI. 

But there were other great ones ofc, those are #1&2 all-time. 

You can see how far off the NOAA map was for yby last winter:

 

 

Btw - some are seeing a lot of parallels with 13-14 and even those winters with strong red shades featured some snowstorms in MI. A-L-E-K has conceded "the flip is here and its f'real"

[Niko]

Just now, Niko said:

 

@jaster220I have a strong feeling that winter 2013-14 is coming our way this season.......

[Niko]

17 hours ago, jaster220 said:

That's just the "tax payer funded map" anyways so means nothing sadly. What I bolded would be 1880-81 or 2013-14 for SEMI. 

But there were other great ones ofc, those are #1&2 all-time. 

You can see how far off the NOAA map was for yby last winter:

 

 

Btw - some are seeing a lot of parallels with 13-14 and even those winters with strong red shades featured some snowstorms in MI. A-L-E-K has conceded "the flip is here and its f'real"

Fingers crossed!!

[jaster220]

According to this map @tStacsh's area is running a 100+ inch snow deficit over the past 5 or 6 winters. Slightly better here with 50+" deficit

[jaster220]

In JB's Saturday summary he cites four background metrics such as QBO phase that generate a set of analog DJF's that have widespread cold. And his analogs have Oct AN so my 27F this morning is not reflective of the impending BN regime fwiw. 

[Clinton]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

In JB's Saturday summary he cites four background metrics such as QBO phase that generate a set of analog DJF's that have widespread cold. And his analogs have Oct AN so my 27F this morning is not reflective of the impending BN regime fwiw. 

Compares well to what happened in 2010-11 and 2020-21.

Implications for Winter WeatherAn easterly QBO often correlates with:

 

Weaker Polar Vortex: Increased risk of sudden stratospheric warmings (SSWs), leading to disrupted Arctic air containment.

Regional Cold and Snow: Higher likelihood of cold outbreaks in the eastern U.S., Midwest, Northern Europe, and eastern Canada; enhanced snowfall in the Great Lakes, Northeast, and Northern Rockies.

Jet Stream Effects: Potential for a more meridional (wavy) jet stream, favoring blocking patterns over typical La Niña ridging.

This forecast is based on seasonal model outputs (e.g., ECMWF, NMME) and analog years with similar setups (e.g., 2010/11, 2020/21). Updates may evolve as November data emerges; for the latest, monitor sources like KIT's QBO dataset (updated through September 2025) or ECMWF seasonal charts. If you'd like analogs, model visuals, or ties to specific regions, let me know!

 

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies wanting to pull the trough west a bit for late Nov into December which should increase the PDO some and hopefully amplify some ridging along the west coast of the US/Canada into December. This is getting close by week 5 (of course models have very low skill at that range)

[Andie]

55* 

Wind Gusty  28mph 

Sunny & Clear.  

Typical Texas Fall with Front moving through.  Wind makes it really miserable. 
This Fall/Winter will likely be a repeat of last year. 
 

[WeatherProtogen]

Dang cold here in north-central Ohio! 52F rn and feels like 47F, though it feels even colder due to wind chill! (forgot about swearing lol)

[Clinton]

9 hours ago, Black Hole said:

EPS weeklies wanting to pull the trough west a bit for late Nov into December which should increase the PDO some and hopefully amplify some ridging along the west coast of the US/Canada into December. This is getting close by week 5 (of course models have very low skill at that range)

That could set the Sub up for a cold and wet September for a change.  Both the Weeklies and the GEFS Extended have the EPO and NAO going negative towards the last week of NOV.  MJO also looks to wanna play also by moving into phase 7.

[Tom]

The JMA Weeklies are showing some confidence that the SW Flow part of the LRC returns in the Week 3-4 period but its hard to say what week does it come.  Today's run is veering away from the Eastern CONUS trough from last weeks run and more or less what the Euro Weeklies/CFSv2 are suggesting.  I think this is something we should pay attn to as this would fit the return of the beginning of the OCT pattern.

Week 3-4...

 

Precip/Temp...This would suggest a very Active/Wet Sub and probably a lot of cutters.

 

 

 

[Niko]

This from AI Overview: 

 

 

 

A mild and stormy "bookend" winter is likely for 2025–26

with an expected weak La Niña climate pattern influencing conditions across North America. The season may be defined by significant winter storms at the beginning and end, punctuated by milder, less active stretches in between. 

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies looking increasingly promising for early December. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Ill believe it when I see it. We haven't had an early start to winter in years. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

This from AI Overview: 

 

 

 

A mild and stormy "bookend" winter is likely for 2025–26

with an expected weak La Niña climate pattern influencing conditions across North America. The season may be defined by significant winter storms at the beginning and end, punctuated by milder, less active stretches in between. 

This seems to be the general consensus among the various outlets that I've read.  So that probably means that the entire winter will suck or we'll actually have a wall to wall good winter.  

[Hoosier]

14 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Ill believe it when I see it. We haven't had an early start to winter in years. 

I'm as skeptical as the next guy given how December has been going, but right now signs are good for December.  If we can't pull it off this year, then I'll be pretty convinced that it'll never happen again.  

[james1976]

Day 8-9 looking interesting for MN, WI. Hoping for good trends over the next week.

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies showing an abnormally weak polar vortex the end of the month into early December. Quite a few members indicating a potential SSW but time will tell on that. 

[Black Hole]

https://x.com/webberweather/status/1983674322838548954

There is a nice post from Eric Webb here noting the early December potential. "Favorable West Pac-W Hem MJO orbit coupled w/ La Nina heavily favors a +PNA/-EPO/-NAO type pattern to open up December"
 

Paul Roundy shared this graphic that seems to agree on the main idea. I'd say odds currently favor a cold start to December but whether we see wintery weather is completely unknown. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

+PNA. Gross. Had that last winter and it sucked. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

This is why I dont get my expectations up. Just like Husker football, winter will always find a way to gut punch me again and again. Can't wait to see USC boat race us on Saturday. 

[Black Hole]

Just now, SE Nebraska wx said:

+PNA. Gross. Had that last winter and it sucked. 

+PNA means a big ridge along the west coast of the USA into Canada. It's the most likely way to get cold air east of the Rockies. Cold doesn't ensure snow, but its a good way to start. We will see when we get closer if we can pair up some moisture with the colder air (if it even materializes) 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Just now, Black Hole said:

+PNA means a big ridge along the west coast of the USA into Canada. It's the most likely way to get cold air east of the Rockies. Cold doesn't ensure snow, but its a good way to start. We will see when we get closer if we can pair up some moisture with the colder air (if it even materializes) 

Yea same garbage as last winter. We had a monster +PNA with transient cold at best and near zero precip. Gonna make me sick to see the east cash in too. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

Wheb the hell are we just gonna get a goddamn neutral winter. Tired of this never ending parade of La Nina's and super Ninos. Just want a normal winter for once. Tired of constantly getting screwed every year. Just give me 25-30 inches with near normal temps. At this point ill be lucky to get 10 inches this winter. 5th trash winter in a row coming. Yippee 

[Black Hole]

14 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Yea same garbage as last winter. We had a monster +PNA with transient cold at best and near zero precip. Gonna make me sick to see the east cash in too. 

One of the issues last winter was the lack of southeast ridging to slow the troughs up. They just raced too quickly for the most part before they could pick up moisture. One would think with a somewhat stronger la nina (but also not real strong) we might be able to get the SE ridge going Jan-Feb. There may be a good window at some point for some better storms but I guess we will have to see on that one.