Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[Black Hole]

Current snow cover looks reasonable across Siberia, but below normal for Europe and North America. However, model guidance is looking solid to put some snow down across much of Canada the next two weeks. That'll be important for helping cold airmasses to both build and hold onto their teeth when they come down later in the winter. 

Also interesting to note that sea ice is close to normal near Alaska but way below normal north of Europe. Not sure what effects that actually has but I imagine there are some. 

[KTPmidMO]

6 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Wheb the hell are we just gonna get a goddamn neutral winter. Tired of this never ending parade of La Nina's and super Ninos. Just want a normal winter for once. Tired of constantly getting screwed every year. Just give me 25-30 inches with near normal temps. At this point ill be lucky to get 10 inches this winter. 5th trash winter in a row coming. Yippee 

lol.. your so negative. Do you ever have anything positive to say, or even neutral?

I just looked at the data. According to the NWS data records, I have actually received less snowfall than you each year for the last 4 years. I haven't even hit double digit snow totals each winter the last 3 winters! 3.2"(2022-2023), 8.1"(2023-2024), and 5.4"(2024-2025) to be exact.

Some towns just 25 to 50 miles from me have gotten double or even triple the snowfall I’ve had in those same years and they’re only a hop, skip, and a jump away. Talk about depressing.

Cheer up buttercup!!

[Niko]

15 hours ago, Hoosier said:

This seems to be the general consensus among the various outlets that I've read.  So that probably means that the entire winter will suck or we'll actually have a wall to wall good winter.  

[Tom]

7 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Current snow cover looks reasonable across Siberia, but below normal for Europe and North America. However, model guidance is looking solid to put some snow down across much of Canada the next two weeks. That'll be important for helping cold airmasses to both build and hold onto their teeth when they come down later in the winter. 

Also interesting to note that sea ice is close to normal near Alaska but way below normal north of Europe. Not sure what effects that actually has but I imagine there are some. 

Build the Glacier across the border where it can stick around until DEC comes around.  That's a great snow map for the 1st half of NOV should it come into fruition.  It appears to me the N stream will ramp up next week and produce a parade of PAC storms laying down the foundation of our source region of cold.  

[Niko]

TWC with its usual winter outlook each year.....

[WeatherProtogen]

30 minutes ago, Niko said:

TWC with its usual winter outlook each year.....

Pros of above temps in Ohio (for me personally):

• No cold weather and snow!

Cons: Lake Erie would have a deadly algal blooms and ice would melt in that time!

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 hour ago, Niko said:

TWC with its usual winter outlook each year.....

Thats November 

[WeatherProtogen]

2 minutes ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

Thats November 

close enough ig. we cant really predict winter yet, as it's so far out.

[WeatherProtogen]

10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Current snow cover looks reasonable across Siberia, but below normal for Europe and North America. However, model guidance is looking solid to put some snow down across much of Canada the next two weeks. That'll be important for helping cold airmasses to both build and hold onto their teeth when they come down later in the winter. 

Also interesting to note that sea ice is close to normal near Alaska but way below normal north of Europe. Not sure what effects that actually has but I imagine there are some. 

global warming and climate change, I'd imagine

[Niko]

3 hours ago, Apr0t0genlovWeat23r said:

Pros of above temps in Ohio (for me personally):

• No cold weather and snow!

Cons: Lake Erie would have a deadly algal blooms and ice would melt in that time!

TWC is always on the warm side for some reason and they usually adjust within time. 

[jaster220]

On 10/30/2025 at 5:57 PM, Hoosier said:

This seems to be the general consensus among the various outlets that I've read.  So that probably means that the entire winter will suck or we'll actually have a wall to wall good winter.  

Define book ends. JB has DJF as much BN but Nov and March likely AN. Wouldn't that be opposite of your consensus?

[jaster220]

Reminder how we kicked-off last winter here in The Mitt:

 

Fun little storm. Wish I'd have gone out into town while it was cranking. Figured there would be many more to come so didn't do that (work night). Had I known storms would get harder to come by during the heart of winter I would most certainly have gone out during this one. 

 

[Hoosier]

31 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Define book ends. JB has DJF as much BN but Nov and March likely AN. Wouldn't that be opposite of your consensus?

I don't really count November and March, though obviously there can be cold and snow in those months.  A number of outlooks that I've seen have a wintry December followed by a pullback sometime in January and then getting more favorable again after that in February.  

[SE Nebraska wx]

35 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Define book ends. JB has DJF as much BN but Nov and March likely AN. Wouldn't that be opposite of your consensus?

JB is the Kiss of death. 

 

Amd ill up the ante. If I bust ill leave this board in the spring. 

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

JB is the Kiss of death. 

 

Amd ill up the ante. If I bust ill leave this board in the spring. 

Nobody wants you to leave, just don't be a weenie. It's ok to be cautiously hopeful. 

[gimmesnow]

11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Nobody wants you to leave, just don't be a weenie. It's ok to be cautiously hopeful. 

You just have to learn to appreciate someone in SE Nebraska complaining the UP of Michigan got snow while it rained in Nebraska and that winter is cancelled because everything is missing you.

[Tom]

CANSips came out today and it is maintaining firm on the idea of a great Winter for a large part of the Northern 1/2 of the U.S.

NOV...

DEC...

Temp Trends Last 7-runs...last run looks more widespread with BN temps.  It does, however, run colder than other models but the GL's have been steadfast in the colder regime.

JAN...

 

Temp trends last 7-runs....similar tune...

FEB...

Temp Trends last 7-runs...

 

 

 

 

 

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 hour ago, gimmesnow said:

You just have to learn to appreciate someone in SE Nebraska complaining the UP of Michigan got snow while it rained in Nebraska and that winter is cancelled because everything is missing you.

We dont even get good rain anymore.  

 

All I want is 25-30 inches with average temps. We've had a terrible stretch since 2021. 

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

CANSips came out today and it is maintaining firm on the idea of a great Winter for a large part of the Northern 1/2 of the U.S.

NOV...

DEC...

Temp Trends Last 7-runs...last run looks more widespread with BN temps.  It does, however, run colder than other models but the GL's have been steadfast in the colder regime.

JAN...

 

Temp trends last 7-runs....similar tune...

FEB...

Temp Trends last 7-runs...

 

 

 

 

 

Can we do something about its precip output though?  Not really a fan of the dry look.  That *can* work ok in a winter that is cold or if the precip is timed right, but I'd rather take my chances with average/above average precip.  

 

[Tom]

20 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Can we do something about its precip output though?  Not really a fan of the dry look.  That *can* work ok in a winter that is cold or if the precip is timed right, but I'd rather take my chances with average/above average precip.  

 

I find it does better with precip in the near term when it’s nowcasting.  For instance, check out NOV precip trends and its current run is now seeing an active N stream.  For the Dec outlook, it shows a larger “normal”area and more widespread from a line from CO into the W GL’s and points NW.

[Black Hole]

Some of you might find this interesting. I don't think much happened in Oklahoma in Dec that year. We had some minor events down here in January, but February was when we finally had our turn. Was Dec 2010 interesting in the northern Plains? 

[Black Hole]

Definitely seeing the EPS continue to hone in on this slowdown in the PV near the end of the month. It looks like roughly 20% of members go on to show a major SSW with a wind reversal during December. That would be a big development if it occurred. 

[WeatherProtogen]

On 10/31/2025 at 3:27 PM, Niko said:

TWC is always on the warm side for some reason and they usually adjust within time. 

yeah, nobody can predict winter at this time.

[jaster220]

10 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Some of you might find this interesting. I don't think much happened in Oklahoma in Dec that year. We had some minor events down here in January, but February was when we finally had our turn. Was Dec 2010 interesting in the northern Plains? 

I've mentioned the 2010-11 "vibe". Unfortunately, a repeat would mean we all watch historic storm after historic storm burying the EC up until finally GHD-1 stopped the broken record repeating nightmare that was the first half of that winter.

[Niko]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

I've mentioned the 2010-11 "vibe". Unfortunately, a repeat would mean we all watch historic storm after historic storm burying the EC up until finally GHD-1 stopped the broken record repeating nightmare that was the first half of that winter.

Remembering NYC's Christmas blizzard of 2010

 

•  

I remember December 2010 that year waking up that morning in NYC on the 26th and man, you could not even see the cartops on some vehicles. Snow began falling very heavily Christmas early evening. Talk about perfect timing, right?! Temps during the storm were brutal. (teens the whole time)

 

[Tom]

11 hours ago, Black Hole said:

Definitely seeing the EPS continue to hone in on this slowdown in the PV near the end of the month. It looks like roughly 20% of members go on to show a major SSW with a wind reversal during December. That would be a big development if it occurred. 

Wow, this correlates to what I just posted in the NOV thread...10mb warming showing really explosive signs...

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/intraseasonal/temp10anim.shtml

[Black Hole]

The latest EPS trends for the PV continue to trend downwards, with even more members showing a wind reversal in early December. I saw this from "GaWx" on another weather forum:

"

The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak was 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak.

 The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958.
 
 So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW meaning we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years.

 Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US?

-12/29/2001: no notable cold

-12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later

-12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later

-12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later

-12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later

-11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later

-12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later

-11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later

 So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases."

Then @StormchaserChuck1added on that same forum:

"

There is a really strong timelag between Stratosphere warming and -NAO at different times of the year:

Nov 1-15: +45 days

Nov 15-30: +40 days

Dec 1-15: +35 days

Dec 15-30: +30 days

Jan 1-15: +25 days

Jan 15-30: +25 days

Feb 1-28: +20 days

March 1-31: +15 days

Cold Stratosphere has a +0-day timelag to corresponding +NAO at all times of the cold season. "

[Black Hole]

At least down my way for those years with an early SSW the majority had periods of severe winter and near to above normal snow for the winter. So statistically we do want to see this happen. 

But if we do get an early December SSW we might look for January to be a big month. 

[StormchaserChuck1]

This is probably the most optimistic about Winter I've been since 18-19 (I was actually wrong about that Winter, it looked like it was coming in fast in the Fall but ended up being a mild Winter). 

[Black Hole]

Same, I think any winter can throw a curveball, but as far as things you look for this winter has quite a bit going for it. I'm a little worried the best will be to my northeast but hopefully I can cash in too. It's been a long time since the NE had a good year and I think it may be time. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

1 hour ago, Black Hole said:

It's been a long time since the NE had a good year and I think it may be time. 

They had an epic 25 year run. Screw them. This will be the 5th consecutive trash winter here and 8 of the last 10 here have been awful. Winter doesn't exist where I live anymore. I can count on 2 things to let me down every year, winter and Husker football. 

[PhiEaglesfan712]

7 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

They had an epic 25 year run. Screw them. This will be the 5th consecutive trash winter here and 8 of the last 10 here have been awful. Winter doesn't exist where I live anymore. I can count on 2 things to let me down every year, winter and Husker football. 

If Dylan Raiola can stay healthy next year, I think Nebraska could make a run at the College Football Playoff, especially if they expand to 16.

[SE Nebraska wx]

On 11/4/2025 at 8:28 AM, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

If Dylan Raiola can stay healthy next year, I think Nebraska could make a run at the College Football Playoff, especially if they expand to 16.

They'd need to get an actual O line and improve on stopping the run.  Expanding to a 16 team playoff is dumb. Heck 12 is too much. 

[Tom]

I'm hearing the new Euro Seasonal is a bit more bullish on the cold???

[Clinton]

11 minutes ago, Tom said:

I'm hearing the new Euro Seasonal is a bit more bullish on the cold???

Cooler overall and much cooler for December. 

Current outlook:

Previous:

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Cooler overall and much cooler for December. 

Current outlook:

Previous:

Makes sense...thanks..

[Hoosier]

2 hours ago, Clinton said:

Cooler overall and much cooler for December. 

Current outlook:

Previous:

Do you have the December maps?

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Do you have the December maps?

No unfortunately I can't break it down by month.

[Clinton]

Teleconnections continue to suggest a long cold period beginning towards the later part of the month and continuing through December. AO, NAO, EPO and WPO all moving into and staying negative. MJO also moving towards a more amplified phase 7 and staying there for awhile.  I think we will feel the ugliness of a warm phase 6 for a week but after that it may be game on for winter weather. 

For November 

for December 

[Grizzcoat]

Snodgrass's video yday echoed Clinton's post above. 

It seems major panhandle hookers will be quite rare for most reading. Cold and clipper parade it seems.  Further E you are in the sub and N  - better chances for avg to above avg snowfall. Further W is not going to be good imo.