Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[WeatherProtogen]

nature really wants it to be winter.

[Tom]

I beg to differ on the precip anomaly the Euro Seasonal is showing as one of the Exhibits of this year's pattern had many TX PanHandle systems and a few CO Low's.  My assessment is for a mixed bag of very warm and very cold periods for the S Plains/TX Panhandle region and the majority share of storm tracks will be more or less centered from the Upper MW and points SE into the S MW/OHV/Lakes region for our SUB.

[Clinton]

44 minutes ago, Tom said:

I beg to differ on the precip anomaly the Euro Seasonal is showing as one of the Exhibits of this year's pattern had many TX PanHandle systems and a few CO Low's.  My assessment is for a mixed bag of very warm and very cold periods for the S Plains/TX Panhandle region and the majority share of storm tracks will be more or less centered from the Upper MW and points SE into the S MW/OHV/Lakes region for our SUB.

I agree with your assessment. I think we will have a longer cycle this year, maybe even 55-60 days.  There may be a lot left to see.

[Tom]

4 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I agree with your assessment. I think we will have a longer cycle this year, maybe even 55-60 days.  There may be a lot left to see.

Ya, the LR models this week kinda gave me a curveball as to the length but it does lean more towards a longer cycle.  It might have two distinct long duration SW flow periods???  Maybe I’m wrong on that so let’s see how it plays out.

[chescowxman]

Below are the Top 50 greatest individual snowstorms by station across Chester and SE Berks Counties since 1893. If you live in the Northeast how many of these have you lived through? https://chescowx.com/snow-seasons-storms/

[Andie]

Just so No Tx avoids ice, we can manage.   
But we need rain. 
Am interested in any opinions as to our winter.  
This is what I found:

[Clinton]

2 hours ago, Tom said:

Ya, the LR models this week kinda gave me a curveball as to the length but it does lean more towards a longer cycle.  It might have two distinct long duration SW flow periods???  Maybe I’m wrong on that so let’s see how it plays out.

Well it's definitely wait and see mode but the 12z GFS has a storm off both coast with the big storm rolling down the west coast on the 18th.  Very similar to what happened 34 to35 days earlier. 

[Tom]

1 minute ago, Clinton said:

Well it's definitely wait and see mode but the 12z GFS has a storm off both coast with the big storm rolling down the west coast on the 18th.  Very similar to what happened 34 to35 days earlier. 

Yes, precisely what I have been thinking about this morning!  TBH, I was walking around the fountain thinking to myself "what if the cycle is super short?"  I've never seen or heard Gary mention an LRC cycle being that short.  It would be unprecedented to witness something like that, right?  The shortest cycle I've ever seen has been in the 40-42 day range.  I think the longest was in the 50 (ish) day range.  

I will say, the Euro AI looks similar and hasn't deviated from this set up but it is a few days earlier.  It's quite fascinating figuring this all out.  I'm also paying attn to the E PAC and if there is anything that develop near Puerto Vallarta or south of Cabo.  I'm not expecting a tropical system but some sort of wave could lead to some intelligence.

[Black Hole]

I've slowly been working on a weather model/ climate index page. I think it's far enough along to share.

https://weathersigma.com/sst

Within this tab you can select a range of dates to display. I've run it back to the start of 2024 if you want to check past data. Each map has a bunch of index values along the bottom. They don't perfectly agree with other sources but some of that is related to exact methodology, region of choice for the index, data set, and so on. My IOD doesn't run as cold as what I've seen on here, for example. If you find it useful, find errors, or it needs changes, let me know. But I hope it'll be useful. It updates daily like the world climate service site. The 2nd image is an IOD plot, which can be selected near the bottom of the menu. 

[Black Hole]

By the way, the SSW that may be coming would probably blow up any cycle we have. It's a huge amount of forcing that just turns on and then wanes. 

[Clinton]

22 hours ago, Tom said:

Yes, precisely what I have been thinking about this morning!  TBH, I was walking around the fountain thinking to myself "what if the cycle is super short?"  I've never seen or heard Gary mention an LRC cycle being that short.  It would be unprecedented to witness something like that, right?  The shortest cycle I've ever seen has been in the 40-42 day range.  I think the longest was in the 50 (ish) day range.  

I will say, the Euro AI looks similar and hasn't deviated from this set up but it is a few days earlier.  It's quite fascinating figuring this all out.  I'm also paying attn to the E PAC and if there is anything that develop near Puerto Vallarta or south of Cabo.  I'm not expecting a tropical system but some sort of wave could lead to some intelligence.

This is sure trending into the shortest LRC cycle I can remember. I can't remember year but I think it was 2013-14 winter we had a 63 day cycle.  I'm curious to hear what Gary says.

[Jayhawker85]

17 minutes ago, Clinton said:

This is sure trending into the shortest LRC cycle I can remember. I can't remember year but I think it was 2013-14 winter we had a 63 day cycle.  I'm curious to hear what Gary says.

if this years cycle pattern is in the 30's i will have little hope for winter for our area for any biggies:(

[Clinton]

21 minutes ago, Jayhawker85 said:

if this years cycle pattern is in the 30's i will have little hope for winter for our area for any biggies:(

That might be correct but we are looking at a -NAO and negative to neutral AO with storms in the pattern this season. This storm showing up on the west coast that started the LRC will be a big player for someone several times this winter.  I think what happens with the MJO over the next 3 weeks will tell us a lot.

[SE Nebraska wx]

3 hours ago, Jayhawker85 said:

if this years cycle pattern is in the 30's i will have little hope for winter for our area for any biggies:(

I never had hope to begin with. 

[Tom]

6 hours ago, Clinton said:

This is sure trending into the shortest LRC cycle I can remember. I can't remember year but I think it was 2013-14 winter we had a 63 day cycle.  I'm curious to hear what Gary says.

I think I started following the LRC around 2015 or ‘16…thanks for sharing your thoughts.

[jaster220]

On 11/6/2025 at 6:47 AM, Grizzcoat said:

Snodgrass's video yday echoed Clinton's post above. 

It seems major panhandle hookers will be quite rare for most reading. Cold and clipper parade it seems.  Further E you are in the sub and N  - better chances for avg to above avg snowfall. Further W is not going to be good imo. 

 

Endless NW flow clipper parade would be a lot like last winter. Hoping our guy @Tom's call is closer to reality. Suppression last DJF meant a KC-->IND-->YYZ jackpot zone. First time to watch Eric and he does a really nice video presentation. Thx for sharing.

[jaster220]

Any idea what the Brazilian is saying?? I think somebody would be squawking if it were showing another 13-14 incoming

 

[Black Hole]

23 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Any idea what the Brazilian is saying?? I think somebody would be squawking if it were showing another 13-14 incoming

 

We probably never hear about this model because its probably not very good. 

[Black Hole]

EPS weeklies still say game on. It's clear the pattern is going to be coldest for the north Plains into the northeast where it will be cold more consistently. There does seem to be a bit of a tendency in the model for the type of pattern we had this week where southwest ridging may limit moisture intrusion at times for us further west. 

With that said, December should be colder than normal for all of us with this pattern. If we can't keep the ridge intrusions down it'll end up being drier than we want, with the snow more heavily focused in the east. I guess we will have to see on that one but the month certainly has plenty of promise.

The EPS wants to shift the cold more west towards Christmas but we will see on that. It's probably just moving the MJO wave into new phases by then. 

[Black Hole]

At least for the south-central Plains, it isn't until late December that we get the look that I actually like. A bit of transient ridging in the east with a somewhat tilted block in the Pacific pulls the cold southwest along with a chance to bring up Pacific moisture. Just have to wait 6 weeks  

[SE Nebraska wx]

47 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

At least for the south-central Plains, it isn't until late December that we get the look that I actually like. A bit of transient ridging in the east with a somewhat tilted block in the Pacific pulls the cold southwest along with a chance to bring up Pacific moisture. Just have to wait 6 weeks  

Told u trash winter incoming yet again. FML

[Black Hole]

Looking increasingly likely we see a SSW late this month. Odds continue to move towards a cold winter. I think above normal snow is likely in the east. I think odds are reasonable for the same outcome in the middle of the country if we aren't too dry, but it may be later in the winter that things really deliver. 

[SE Nebraska wx]

SSW is fools gold. Yea sometimes it world out but ive seen it fail way too many times I won't rely on it. 

[Black Hole]

5 hours ago, SE Nebraska wx said:

SSW is fools gold. Yea sometimes it world out but ive seen it fail way too many times I won't rely on it. 

Certainly no guarantee of snow and nobody credible would say that. Statically it's main impact is more blocking and more cold in the midlatitudes. That may or may not mean snow but it can't hurt

[StormchaserChuck1]

This is a better time to have it at least because it correlates with -NAO closer to the middle of season.. for the last several years we've had several late Winter Stratosphere warmings, and since there is a time lag to -NAO, it has had ground effects much later in the Winter. 

[Black Hole]

8 hours ago, StormchaserChuck1 said:

This is a better time to have it at least because it correlates with -NAO closer to the middle of season.. for the last several years we've had several late Winter Stratosphere warmings, and since there is a time lag to -NAO, it has had ground effects much later in the Winter. 

Exactly. I saw some stuff from Eric Webb on X showing this one wants to extend down to the surface fairly quickly too. 

[Clinton]

This is as good as we could ask to get a cold December!

[Hoosier]

Yeah, good signs for a cold December, or at least one that is not that warm.  Cautiously optimistic about that.  Snow is what most of us really care about though so hopefiully that aspect can come through.

[Black Hole]

Check out the latest Weeklies from the EPS. Even colder than the already cold runs of the last few days. What a beautiful look on the 30 day mean with near to above normal precip and well below normal temps. This could be the real deal! 

[Clinton]

17 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

Check out the latest Weeklies from the EPS. Even colder than the already cold runs of the last few days. What a beautiful look on the 30 day mean with near to above normal precip and well below normal temps. This could be the real deal! 

That's exciting especially for a model that struggles to see cold.  I love all the average and above average precip!

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

That's exciting especially for a model that struggles to see cold.  I love all the average and above average precip!

Coast to coast storm madness!  Gosh, what a delight this would end up being for those who have not had a snowy Holiday season.

[jaster220]

I need to "rush my winter preparedness to completion" 

The past 24 hrs was just a practice run, lol

 

[jaster220]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

Coast to coast storm madness!  Gosh, what a delight this would end up being for those who have not had a snowy Holiday season.

I was one of the more fortunate to score a 7" White Christmas, one of if not THE highlight of last winter for me. But, there's nothing like being 2000 or 2013 buried at the holidays! 

[Hoosier]

39 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

I was one of the more fortunate to score a 7" White Christmas, one of if not THE highlight of last winter for me. But, there's nothing like being 2000 or 2013 buried at the holidays! 

I've seen some mention of a December 2000 analog.  I'd sign up for even half of the results of that month.

[jaster220]

14 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I've seen some mention of a December 2000 analog.  I'd sign up for even half of the results of that month.

Just make sure to include the blizzard, lol. Tho I'd need that to take more of a GHD-1 track to hit me where I'm at currently. I was not in Marshall until 2002 and I've tried to extrapolate based on nearest surrounding sites with a data set just how big that month was? Iirc, KBTL about 15 miles west had 52.1" but they will do much better with anything off of Lake Michigan. That 15 miles makes a huge difference. For instance, Dec '09 back-side bliz was a solid 12" there, and more on the order of 9-ish for Marshall proper.

[Andie]

Sitting at 67*. 

Wind at a pretty constant 21mph
Low of 50* tonight. Clear skies. 

[Hoosier]

56 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Just make sure to include the blizzard, lol. Tho I'd need that to take more of a GHD-1 track to hit me where I'm at currently. I was not in Marshall until 2002 and I've tried to extrapolate based on nearest surrounding sites with a data set just how big that month was? Iirc, KBTL about 15 miles west had 52.1" but they will do much better with anything off of Lake Michigan. That 15 miles makes a huge difference. For instance, Dec '09 back-side bliz was a solid 12" there, and more on the order of 9-ish for Marshall proper.

Yes, Dec 11th storm is a requirement.   Here's a map of December 2000 snow totals.  Maybe not perfect but gives a good idea of what happened.  Not sure about the blobs of higher totals like the one north of Indy, haha.

 

For Chicago, December 2000 is officially the 3rd snowiest December on record and 2nd coldest December on record, so it was a month that really paired the snow and cold quite nicely.  ORD had 30.9", but the longtime observer near Midway Airport recorded 41.3".  Lake enhancement was a factor with some of the snows that month.  

In terms of months, December 2000 and February 2021 are the ones for me.  Despite having a little less snow in February 2021, my peak snow depth was actually slightly higher than it was in December 2000.  The snows in 2000 were a little more spread out through the month which gave more time for some settling in between.  

[chescowxman]

Last night before midnight was our first below freezing temperature here in East Nantmeal since back on April 9th. That ends our freeze free growing season here in NW Chester County at 215 days. In the last 22 years the growing season has ranged from a few as 174 days in 2020 to 233 days in both 2005 and 2024. The earliest first freeze was October 13, 2012 and the latest November 23rd 2015. There has been some occasional snow flurries around the area today with temperatures remaining well below normal for mid-November with highs in the upper 30's. In fact, our high temperatures should stay below normal through the rest of the work week with highs remaining in the 40's in the hills and near 50 degrees in the valleys. We warm up well into the 50's by Sunday with rain chances increasing by then.

[Niko]

Just checked my extended December outlook and it looks sweet. Hope it stays like this. 

Btw: Flurries are still flying. Winds are quite gusty as well. Wcf in the 20s.

[Tom]

35 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, Dec 11th storm is a requirement.   Here's a map of December 2000 snow totals.  Maybe not perfect but gives a good idea of what happened.  Not sure about the blobs of higher totals like the one north of Indy, haha.

 

For Chicago, December 2000 is officially the 3rd snowiest December on record and 2nd coldest December on record, so it was a month that really paired the snow and cold quite nicely.  ORD had 30.9", but the longtime observer near Midway Airport recorded 41.3".  Lake enhancement was a factor with some of the snows that month.  

In terms of months, December 2000 and February 2021 are the ones for me.  Despite having a little less snow in February 2021, my peak snow depth was actually slightly higher than it was in December 2000.  The snows in 2000 were a little more spread out through the month which gave more time for some settling in between.  

Good memories of Feb 2021, but also bad memories of how fast the snow melted away!  It was super warm after the snows that fell and you weren't able to really enjoy a week or longer of a deep snow pack.  I think I remember @Jaycee_CHI living near Lincoln Park area and was dumped on from the lake on one of those systems.