Fall/Winter 2025-2026 Discussion

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

Good memories of Feb 2021, but also bad memories of how fast the snow melted away!  It was super warm after the snows that fell and you weren't able to really enjoy a week or longer of a deep snow pack.  I think I remember @Jaycee_CHI living near Lincoln Park area and was dumped on from the lake on one of those systems.

The bad thing about getting it in February is that you know you're on borrowed time.  Snow depth at ORD peaked on the 16th and stayed in double digits until the 25th, so could've been worse I guess.  

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

The bad thing about getting it in February is that you know you're on borrowed time.  Snow depth at ORD peaked on the 16th and stayed in double digits until the 25th, so could've been worse I guess.  

You know what, I think I'm confusing my self with another period in FEB where we saw a ton of snow during a 1 week period.  Now I recall Feb' 21 and that had a pretty cold and snowy 3 week period.

 

This was the event that I remember nailed Chicago downtown metro...

[Hoosier]

4 minutes ago, Tom said:

You know what, I think I'm confusing my self with another period in FEB where we saw a ton of snow during a 1 week period.  Now I recall Feb' 21 and that had a pretty cold and snowy 3 week period.

 

This was the event that I remember nailed Chicago downtown metro...

Maybe February 2011?  Virtually all of the snow that month happened in the first week and there was a very quick meltdown to zero snowcover in mid month.

[Tom]

2 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe February 2011?  Virtually all of the snow that month happened in the first week and there was a very quick meltdown to zero snowcover in mid month.

That was the 1st GHD-1 Blizzard that I'll never forget...I do remember we had a decent period of cold to enjoy the deep snow pack but ya, it did melt off quick.  That's why i'm praying for you guys to experience a solid snow cover early and often this winter.  Snow on Snows!!!

[Thunder98]

Strong El Nino is looking likely next year.

 

 

[jaster220]

6 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Yes, Dec 11th storm is a requirement.   Here's a map of December 2000 snow totals.  Maybe not perfect but gives a good idea of what happened.  Not sure about the blobs of higher totals like the one north of Indy, haha.

 

For Chicago, December 2000 is officially the 3rd snowiest December on record and 2nd coldest December on record, so it was a month that really paired the snow and cold quite nicely.  ORD had 30.9", but the longtime observer near Midway Airport recorded 41.3".  Lake enhancement was a factor with some of the snows that month.  

In terms of months, December 2000 and February 2021 are the ones for me.  Despite having a little less snow in February 2021, my peak snow depth was actually slightly higher than it was in December 2000.  The snows in 2000 were a little more spread out through the month which gave more time for some settling in between.  

Wow yeah most all of Calhoun Cnty in 50-60" shading. Huge, like an entire season's worth of snow for Marshall (avg 49"). You can see the 41" report at Miday here:

 

[jaster220]

5 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Maybe February 2011?  Virtually all of the snow that month happened in the first week and there was a very quick meltdown to zero snowcover in mid month.

@Tom and you are thinking of Feb '17 when we got nice snow depth for a few days and a sudden melt-off that caused serious flooding of the Kalamazoo River over my way (along with everyone's basements).

[Hoosier]

1 hour ago, jaster220 said:

@Tom and you are thinking of Feb '17 when we got nice snow depth for a few days and a sudden melt-off that caused serious flooding of the Kalamazoo River over my way (along with everyone's basements).

I think we might all be thinking of different months.  Chicago had a trace of snow in February 2017 and less than an inch the month prior in January 2017... as bad as it gets.  There wasn't anything to melt off.

[Andie]

2 hours ago, Thunder98 said:

Strong El Nino is looking likely next year.

 

 

Always brings us rain. 
That’s exciting after this long dry spell.  

[Clinton]

Euro Weeklies remain consistent, cold and snow for many from Thanksgiving to Christmas. 

Snow from November 25th to December 26th.

[Tom]

1 hour ago, Clinton said:

Euro Weeklies remain consistent, cold and snow for many from Thanksgiving to Christmas. 

Snow from November 25th to December 26th.

Man, Oh Man, Ol' Man Winter is coming out to Play all Day!!

[MMike]

3 hours ago, Tom said:

Man, Oh Man, Ol' Man Winter is coming out to Play all Day!!

Tom…you screamed potential cold and snow on November’s thread last year about snow falling Thanksgiving week, it happened in KC. It also happened the year before too, both times I was in Arizona for Thanksgiving week. Can we do 3 years in a row? I’m going to Arizona again..

[Tom]

10 minutes ago, MMike said:

Tom…you screamed potential cold and snow on November’s thread last year about snow falling Thanksgiving week, it happened in KC. It also happened the year before too, both times I was in Arizona for Thanksgiving week. Can we do 3 years in a row? I’m going to Arizona again..

3-Peat baby!!!  I'm loving what I'm seeing....will you be out here in the valley this Thanksgiving?  Or somewhere else in AZ?

[Hoosier]

I'm in the mood to put out a winter guess for Chicago... will probably do it later.  Bottom line:  expect a rebound from the totally pathetic string of seasons that we've seen in the area lately and likely a colder winter than 2024-25.  

[MMike]

1 hour ago, Tom said:

3-Peat baby!!!  I'm loving what I'm seeing....will you be out here in the valley this Thanksgiving?  Or somewhere else in AZ?

Scottsdale, our family rents a house for the week.

[Tom]

14 minutes ago, MMike said:

Scottsdale, our family rents a house for the week.

Fantastic, we should try to connect..

[WeatherProtogen]

1 hour ago, Hoosier said:

I'm in the mood to put out a winter guess for Chicago... will probably do it later.  Bottom line:  expect a rebound from the totally pathetic string of seasons that we've seen in the area lately and likely a colder winter than 2024-25.  

oh God please no...

[MMike]

27 minutes ago, Tom said:

Fantastic, we should try to connect..

Yes sir! I’ll reach out when we get closer to that week. 

[jaster220]

23 hours ago, Hoosier said:

I think we might all be thinking of different months.  Chicago had a trace of snow in February 2017 and less than an inch the month prior in January 2017... as bad as it gets.  There wasn't anything to melt off.

My brain fart - meant Feb 2018! 

[jaster220]

13 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro Weeklies remain consistent, cold and snow for many from Thanksgiving to Christmas. 

Snow from November 25th to December 26th.

Thanks @Clinton!!

I find the LR snow maps tend to just show like what a normal winter period would look like "on avg" just like a snapshot of the the climo annual maps. Not really good at reflecting winners and losers. I suppose, if it were going to be torching it up, then very little or no snow could be showing. Here in Harrison the city already hung the lights in town and they were lit yesterday evening on Vet's Day. Earliest I remember but heck its dark morning and evening now so it looks nice. Just need some "real" snow to make it all the more festive!

[jaster220]

Can you find YOUR town from Space?? Here's little ole Harrison:

[Clinton]

46 minutes ago, jaster220 said:

Thanks @Clinton!!

I find the LR snow maps tend to just show like what a normal winter period would look like "on avg" just like a snapshot of the the climo annual maps. Not really good at reflecting winners and losers. I suppose, if it were going to be torching it up, then very little or no snow could be showing. Here in Harrison the city already hung the lights in town and they were lit yesterday evening on Vet's Day. Earliest I remember but heck its dark morning and evening now so it looks nice. Just need some "real" snow to make it all the more festive!

I hope we see some snow and if it's cold like JB is saying from Thanksgiving to Christmas we will surely luck into a few snow storms.  Right now the teleconnections and Weeklies support his hurricane analog for December. 

[Stacsh]

15 minutes ago, Clinton said:

I hope we see some snow and if it's cold like JB is saying from Thanksgiving to Christmas we will surely luck into a few snow storms.  Right now the teleconnections and Weeklies support his hurricane analog for December. 

Every year he’s wrong.   The long range computer models are a joke.  Not sure why people put faith in something that is 50/50 at best.  Just looked at recent trends.   Warming up every run.    

[SE Nebraska wx]

38 minutes ago, Stacsh said:

Every year he’s wrong.   The long range computer models are a joke.  Not sure why people put faith in something that is 50/50 at best.  Just looked at recent trends.   Warming up every run.    

Yup. This happens every year only for there ti be a gut punch. November looking like yet another blowtorch month 

[Andie]

Going to 55* tonight.

83% humidity.  Pretty chilly.  
The moisture of Lake Texoma is what is getting to us.  
No wind chill.   Just nilppy.  

[Niko]

16 hours ago, Clinton said:

Euro Weeklies remain consistent, cold and snow for many from Thanksgiving to Christmas. 

Snow from November 25th to December 26th.

Lets get the party going!! 

[Hoosier]

Ok here's my winter guess for Chicago.  More for fun than anything as long range winter forecasting is difficult to say the least and I just don't have the level of interest in it that some folks do.

Temps (DJF):  -1 to -3

Snowfall (first flake to last flake):  28-38"

 

Winter 2024-25 (DJF) was about -1 in Chicago, so I am calling for a similar or more likely colder winter this time.  Part of my reasoning is that I expect considerably more snowcover, enough to make a difference.  There was a serious dearth of snowcover for much of last winter not only in Chicago but also upstream farther north.  Out of the 90 days that make up DJF, Chicago had 1"+ snowcover on only 22 days and the peak depth was 3"... about as bad as it can get snowcover-wise for Chicago. 

I'm kind of torn about whether December or January will be coldest relative to average.  I don't think it will be February as I would expect the fairly common Nina progression of more southeast ridging/warmth in Feb.  

For snowfall, my call is purposely not snowier than average with my upper bound just at average.  Chicago averages 38", and the last 4 consecutive winters and 8 out of the last 10 have had below average snowfall.  Obviously there will be another above average snowfall winter at some point (with any luck, it will be 2025-26!) but it's hard for me to actually pull the trigger on that given the recent stretch.  If my snowfall range works out, it would be a rebound from the past few winters but obviously not anything huge.  Hopefully the snowfall can overperform.    

[Grizzcoat]

great video --- first 4 mins go over SSW and Euro weeklies 

 

[Tom]

12 hours ago, jaster220 said:

Can you find YOUR town from Space?? Here's little ole Harrison:

Ain't that something??  Gotta love our advanced satellites nowadays.

[Black Hole]

40 minutes ago, Tom said:

Ain't that something??  Gotta love our advanced satellites nowadays.

I've been working on a satellite app I'll release in the next couple months. And having reproduced geocolor plots I can tell you this chart at least is not actually seeing city lights. The lights are added for effect but the goes satellite cannot see them that well. 

[Tom]

6 minutes ago, Black Hole said:

I've been working on a satellite app I'll release in the next couple months. And having reproduced geocolor plots I can tell you this chart at least is not actually seeing city lights. The lights are added for effect but the goes satellite cannot see them that well. 

That's awesome to hear your creating a sat app!  When are you expecting to launch it?

[Hoosier]

Certainly the unreliable/lower skill timeframe for the CFS, but look at this trend for December.  Will be keeping a closer eye on this as we get into late November.   

 

[WeatherProtogen]

im happy that its starting to warm up again. in fact, today I could play pickleball!

[Black Hole]

4 hours ago, Tom said:

That's awesome to hear your creating a sat app!  When are you expecting to launch it?

If you want to help with the testing, I may have that ready in 4-8 weeks. For the public release, hopefully within 3-4 months. Just depends on how long some of the debugging takes  

[Tom]

2 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Certainly the unreliable/lower skill timeframe for the CFS, but look at this trend for December.  Will be keeping a closer eye on this as we get into late November.   

 

I can' t wait to hear when @SE Nebraska wx says its snowing heavily over his backyard...maybe some positivity coming from him???

[Tom]

Alright, alright, alright...the JMA threw a curve ball for our 1st MET Winter month of DEC...is it "seeing" something different???

DEC...Strong GOA LOW???  +EPO which is a reversal to last months run that had a -EPO.  Tons of High Latitude Blocking and a roaring Northern Stream JET.

 

Temp/Precip...You would think that with a +EPO it would flood the nation with MUCH above normal temps, but nasso much, as it shows below that there is a signal for normal temps in the PAC NW/N Rockies and down into the S MW/Lower Lakes and Southeast.  TX sure looks warmer and the Upper MW and Southern Prairies of Canada.  Precip is Loaded pretty. much Coast to Coast.

 

 

JAN...Could this be the interpretation of an early SSW event???

 

Temp/Precip...This is Self Explanatory....Ol' Man Winter's Fury!!  Glacier is upon us across the Central CONUS.  The 500mb pattern is a Thing of Beauty...Hello Polar Vortex and Merry the active STJ...I'm pretty certain many will be rejoicing outside to Play!!  Let it SNOW!!

 

FEB...SW riding, High lat blocking...active N stream...Winter continues onwards and upward!  Could this be the Winter that keeps on giving???  One can Dream...I will say, there is supporting evidence of such an outcome.  Let's see the show from Mother Nature as she has the final say.

 

 

Temp/Precip...

 

[Niko]

I don't think models are catching up to the colder weather coming in December, but eventually, they will.

[Niko]

Great Vid:

 

[Stacsh]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

Great Vid:

 

Every social media posts is talking epic cold.  Such click bait.   It’s ok to look into the future weeks out.   But let’s stop the epic for clicks posts already.   

[Stacsh]

3 hours ago, Niko said:

I don't think models are catching up to the colder weather coming in December, but eventually, they will.

Those trusty models weeks out lol